7 betting trends to trust in Week 4
Bob Levey / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Basing bets off what has happened rather than what will happen is an easy trap to fall into.

Patterns and trends in sports betting are often frowned upon, mainly because they detract from anything predictive and more importantly, the market as a whole.

Betting strictly on pattern alone - especially without a large sample size - won't get you anywhere far, but sometimes it may add the tiniest bit of support to the edge you already have.

Here are some tips to consider for Week 4 of college football:

The Over is 14-4 when Clemson is a double-digit road favorite since 2011

Situation: Clemson -17 at Georgia Tech; O/U 52

Clemson's offense has been lethal in this spot in the past. The Tigers are outscoring opponents 42.8 to 20.0 on average.

The 2018 Tigers offense might not have the explosiveness they've had in years past, but one would think it's only a matter of time until the unit breaks out.

If you fancy yourself a fan of this angle, you'll likely need Georgia Tech's triple option to produce against one of the top defensive fronts in the country.

Iowa is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 Big 10 games as a home underdog

Situation: Wisconsin -3 at Iowa

It's not a secret anymore: Kinnick Stadium is a tough place to play at night.

Iowa manhandled the Buckeyes and nearly upended Penn State a season ago; in 2016, the Hawkeyes tripped up Michigan as 24-point underdogs. Iowa upsetting a conference team at home should be on your annual college football bingo card.

The Hawkeyes welcome a Wisconsin Badgers team fresh off a home loss to BYU last weekend. Wisconsin, however, is responsible for two of the three losses against the spread for Iowa over those 12 games.

Purdue is 1-8 ATS in its last nine as a home underdog

Situation: Boston College -6 at Purdue

This one finally broke last Saturday against Missouri. It very well could have been nine in a row. The Tigers, laying five points, were inside the five-yard line with the score tied and time winding down in the fourth. Instead of scoring a touchdown and going up seven, Missouri opted to kneel, drain the clock out, and kick the game-winning field goal.

The angle doesn't hold much weight, seeing as Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm has been at his post for a little more than a year and has been in this situation just twice. But as short underdogs at home for the fourth straight week, how much motivation will the Boilermakers have in Week 4?

The Missouri game may have been Purdue's last gasp. The Boilermakers are 0-3 and have lost by a combined eight points. Boston College, on the other hand, is surging at 3-0 and will have extra rest after playing on Thursday night against Wake Forest.

Ranked teams coming off a loss by 14 or more are 65-98-2 ATS the following week

Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Situation: Washington State +3.5 at USC

A nice nugget dug up by the Washington Post.

Then-No. 22 USC was crushed by Texas on the road last Saturday by 23. The Trojans return home on Friday against undefeated Washington State, which has taken two of the last three over USC.

Eastern Michigan under Chris Creighton is 11-1 ATS as a road underdog

Situation: Eastern Michigan +10.5 at San Diego State

Even a program that has only one winning season in the last 22 years can provide some value.

Eastern Michigan may very well be a live underdog on Saturday at San Diego State, which is 2-7 against the spread as a home favorite in its last nine. The Aztecs are also in a huge sandwich spot with Arizona State in the rearview mirror and a road game at Boise State on deck.

UConn under head coach Randy Edsall is 0-6 ATS in non-conference games

Situation: UConn +27.5 at Syracuse

UConn's defense - if that's what we're calling it - figures to be in for another challenge when the Huskies travel to take on the Orange. UConn ranks dead last in the country in yards allowed (673.3) and points allowed (55.7) per game in three contests, one of which came against FCS Rhode Island.

East Carolina under Scottie Montgomery is 0-8 ATS as a double-digit road underdog

Situation: East Carolina +22 at South Florida

The Pirates have bent the knee as heavy underdogs away from home. They're catching 22 points on Saturday against South Florida, a team that owns a pair of wins over Power Five programs this season and took last year's meeting between the two, 61-31.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

7 betting trends to trust in Week 4
  Got something to say? Leave a comment below!
Daily Newsletter
Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox