The Golden State Warriors just don't lose three games in a row, regression can be painful and the Memphis Grizzlies now face a best-of-three situation without the benefit of home court.
The Warriors bounced back after two poor outings and evened their Western Conference semifinal series at 2-2 on Monday, cruising to a 101-84 victory at The Grindhouse.
"We had a good mindset as a group coming into this game that if we play like ourselves, we'd change the tide of this series," Steph Curry said after the game.
That's exactly what the Warriors did, and while the tide won't be measurable until Game 5 on Wednesday, any concerns for Golden State fans have surely been allayed a day or two.
Turning Point
Regression toward the mean first became a prominent idea in the 19th century, when Sir Francis Galton explored the height of offspring relative to their parents. The realization that extreme events will, over a large enough sample, move toward an established average is probably the appropriate turning point for this game.
Curry wasn't going to struggle from the field forever, and the Warriors were going to start knocking down shots eventually. Golden State was 4-of-18 on wide-open threes over their two losses and 4-of-16 on triples that are simply classified as open, shots they hit 42 percent and 40.3 percent on respectively in the regular season. They hadn't hit so few threes in back-to-back games since last year's playoffs.
The Warriors shot 47.5 percent overall and 14-of-33 from outside, raining triples on Memphis like hellfire and returning their series 3-point shooting clip to an uncharacteristic but respectable 34.5 percent.
In other words, not even Memphis's team defense, firing on all cylinders of late, was going to hold Golden State down forever. A seven-game series isn't always enough time for performances to correct themselves, but in the case of the Warriors juggernaut, it's proven to be.
Star Performer
About that whole regression thing: The MVP was shooting 37.9 percent in the series and 27.6 percent from outside. He's Steph Curry, that just wasn't going to hold up for long.
Curry was on fire all night, shooting 11-of-22 from the floor, 4-of-9 from long-range and 7-of-9 from the free-throw line, finishing with 33 points, eight rebounds, five assists and a pair of steals. He found separation on screens where he was previously getting little daylight, he was able to dish to teammates and then find his way back open and his jumper was as wet as everyone's come to expect.
Stephen Curry's 33-point Game 4 Splash Chart for @Warriors, who evened the series with Memphis at 2-apiece: pic.twitter.com/GXKmXBZiZg
— NBA.com/Stats (@nbastats) May 12, 2015
Suddenly, what appeared to be a bad series for Curry sees him averaging 24.3 points and six assists with a .425/.316/.772 shooting line, far from his regular season numbers but hardly a disaster.
— Erik Malinowski (@erikmal) May 12, 2015
Highlight Reel
Regression comes in weird forms. Just ask Curry.
Or just watch, as the shots that weren't falling earlier in the series did so emphatically Monday:
That magical Curry passing was present, too:
The Warriors also tried some new defensive looks, with Andrew Bogut employing the first ever one-man zone. This is taking two-nine to the extreme.
Series at a Glance
Game 1: Warriors 101, Grizzlies 86 (Warriors lead 1-0)
Game 2: Grizzlies 97, Warriors 90 (Series tied 1-1)
Game 3: Grizzlies 99, Warriors 89 (Grizzlies lead 2-1)
Game 4: Warriors 101, Grizzlies 84 (Series tied 2-2)
Game 5: Wednesday, May 13, 10:30 p.m. ET
Game 6: Friday, May 15, 9:30 p.m. ET
Game 7*: Sunday, May 17, TBD
* - if necessary
