March Madness Round 1: Best bets, survivor picks for Thursday's slate

You've probably already researched every stat about schools you'd never heard of, filled out your brackets, and entered your survivor pools. It's almost time to set up your screens and enjoy the show. But before you make your picks for the first day of action, we're here to guide you through them.

Sam Oshtry and Brenden Deeg will each provide their favorite daily picks, their best underdog moneyline play, and a survivor pick for each day of the tournament until a champion is crowned in April. Let's get to the action.

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No. 9 TCU (+2.5) over No. 8 Ohio State

TCU won six of its last seven games because of a sturdy, top-25 defense. The Horned Frogs have the personnel to shut down Ohio State star Bruce Thornton. Beyond him, the Buckeyes don't have enough reliable scorers. Ohio State's defense, meanwhile, ranks outside the top 50 and won't stop TCU forward David Punch. Plus, Ohio State is a completely different team outside of Columbus: The Buckeyes are 14-3 at home and 7-9 away. - Oshtry

No. 13 Troy (+13.5) over No. 4 Nebraska

The pressure is on for Nebraska to win the first tournament game in school history. The Cornhuskers are a streaky offensive team that relies heavily on jacking a ton of threes - Nebraska attempts more than 50% of its field goals from long range. When Nebraska's hot, it's virtually unbeatable. But variance makes 3-pointer-heavy teams susceptible to upsets. You know the saying: Live by the three, die by the three. Plus, Troy has defended the arc well all season. I'm not willing to say Troy will win outright, but it should keep the contest close. - Oshtry

No. 11 VCU (+2.5) over No. 6 North Carolina

North Carolina's frontcourt is a mess without Caleb Wilson. Since he suffered a season-ending injury, the Tar Heels are 5-3, and three of those wins came against teams at the bottom of the ACC. North Carolina is barely a tournament team without Wilson, creating an upset opportunity for VCU. Three Rams players are shooting 40% or better from deep. North Carolina's rebounding struggles should create extra shooting opportunities for VCU, which has the talent to win here. - Oshtry

No. 9 Saint Louis (+2.5) over No. 8 Georgia

Saint Louis is led by Atlantic 10 Player of the Year Robbie Avila, who will become a fan favorite Thursday night. Avila and the Billikens lead all tournament teams in effective field-goal percentage (59.7%) and shoot over 40% from the 3-point line.

Georgia's offense ranks third in points per game, but it's 175th in the nation in 3-point percentage (34.1%), and it's extremely streaky. Saint Louis is also good at limiting teams from deep, sitting eighth in the nation in opponent 3-point percentage.

The biggest difference in this game is that Saint Louis is solid defensively and Georgia doesn't show up on that side of the ball, ranking 302nd in points per game allowed (79.2) among all D-I programs. It's been Georgia's Achilles' heel all season, and the Billikens are the perfect team to exploit that weakness. Saint Louis should be the favorite in this game, and you get 2.5 points to work with. - Deeg

No. 3 Illinois team total over 87.5

Penn is coming off an incredible overtime upset of Yale in the Ivy League Tournament title game. However, 24.5-point favorite Illinois is primed to light up the scoreboard after a disappointing loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament.

Illinois averages 84.4 points per game and is second nationally in KenPom's offensive rating. The team scored at least 88 points in games against Purdue, Missouri, and Ohio State this season - all much better opponents than the Quakers.

Penn likes to play fast, which should lead to a ton of turnovers that the Fighting Illini can convert into quick points. When the Quakers' competition leveled up this season, Penn allowed 90 points to Villanova and 106 to Providence. I wouldn't be surprised if Illinois reaches triple digits in this contest. - Deeg

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No. 12 McNeese State (+450) over No. 5 Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt is a trendy pick to go far in the tournament, but McNeese State has the formula to pull off the upset. The Cowboys won their opening-round game as a 12-seed last year after being selected as a popular upset pick. While it's a different team with a different coach, McNeese State plays at a slower pace, focusing on winning the possession battle.

The Cowboys rank first in the nation in turnover margin and second in turnovers forced. Meanwhile, the Commodores struggle to take care of the ball, committing the nation's 23rd-most turnovers.

Limiting the possessions in a game against a more talented team is crucial, which is why McNeese State is equipped to win. At the very least, take the 11.5-point spread. - Oshtry

No. 11 South Florida (+160) over No. 6 Louisville

South Florida has all the makings of a double-digit seed that can win its first game. The Bulls force turnovers at the 13th-highest rate in the nation and attack the glass at will, ranking fourth in rebounds per contest. Izaiyah Nelson, the American Conference Player of the Year, is one of the most exciting forwards in the tournament and can defend all five positions.

Louisville is a top-25 team on KenPom but won't have Mikel Brown Jr., its best player, who hasn't taken the floor since Feb. 28 due to a back injury.

The Cardinals have lost four of their last eight games, while the Bulls have won 11 straight. Bulls head coach Bryan Hodgson is from the Nate Oats coaching tree and loves to play up-tempo. That can hinder upset attempts, but it should work in this matchup because South Florida can match Louisville's style - USF ranks eighth in points per game. - Deeg

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Survivor pools have become one of the most popular betting activities for March Madness. Here's how it works: You pick one team to win each day, and you can't use that team again for the rest of the tournament. If that team wins, you're still in the running. If your pick loses, you're eliminated.

Don't waste your early-round picks on the top seeds. The soundest strategy for the first couple of days is picking teams that you think can escape the Round of 64 but don't have much of a chance of going deep in the tournament. With that in mind, here are our Thursday survivor picks.

Oshtry - Arkansas

Arkansas has the talent to make a serious run, as evidenced by winning the SEC Tournament. It also boasts one of the best players in the country in Darius Acuff Jr. However, the Razorbacks got a tough path, likely facing Wisconsin in the Round of 32 and Arizona in the Sweet 16. I wouldn't feel comfortable taking Arkansas in either game, especially against a dangerous Wisconsin team. Hawaii, which is a 15.5-point underdog, doesn't pose much of a threat in the opening round, especially against an experienced tournament coach in John Calipari. I'll use Arkansas on Day 1 and hope the Razorbacks don't advance much further.

Deeg - Gonzaga

Taking teams seeded 3-5 is the best way to attack survivor pools in the first two days, and Gonzaga is a great selection to start the tournament. It's a 20.5-point favorite against Kennesaw State, and the program hasn't lost a first-round March Madness game since Steph Curry and Davidson took the Bulldogs down in 2008.

The Owls need to dominate inside to succeed - they ranked 211th in field-goal percentage but 23rd in rebounds. However, Gonzaga sits inside the top 25 in rebounds and the top 10 in KenPom's defensive rating. The Bulldogs' offense will run through Graham Ike early and often, and he'll be too much for Kennesaw State to handle. The Owls also ranked last in the country in defensive free-throw rate, so I expect Gonzaga to live at the line. Even with Braden Huff sidelined for the Bulldogs, the talent gap in this game should produce a comfortable Gonzaga win.

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