Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.
Friday should bring a ton of excitement as the Round of 64 comes to an end. Here are our five best bets for the games.
(9) Northwestern vs. (8) Florida Atlantic (-3, O/U 142)
Game time: 12:20 p.m. ET
I thought observers were squeezing every drop out of a lemon to make lemonade for a Florida Atlantic team that was riding high after an improbable Cinderella run.
Based on preseason expectations, FAU had a disappointing campaign. The Owls are overseeded at No. 8, and I don't buy them making another run - especially with UConn lurking. But they have a great first-round matchup against a vulnerable Northwestern squad and are still the more talented group. And they demonstrated their ability to win close games this season and during last year's tournament run.
Northwestern's injuries also give FAU an edge. Ty Berry has been out since mid-February, which shrinks the Wildcats' backcourt depth. Boo Buie is one of the best guards in the country and should torch FAU's backcourt, but he probably can't single-handedly carry Northwestern to the finish line.
Center Matthew Nicholson, the Wildcats' second-leading rebounder and top shot-blocker, is also out. That's problematic because the Owls' most efficient play type is the post-up, where they score 1.128 points per possession, according to Synergy. Look for them to feed big man Vladislav Goldin in the post to secure a victory.
Pick: FAU -3
(9) Texas A&M vs. (8) Nebraska (-1, O/U 147)
Game time: 6:55 p.m. ET
This is a clash between two teams with opposite strengths and play styles.
Nebraska shoots the fifth-most threes per game among tournament teams, while Texas A&M plays slow and seldom shoots from beyond the arc. The Aggies have one of the worst 3-point percentages in the country, which could spell trouble against a Cornhuskers defense that forces offenses to shoot from the outside.
The Aggies are the best offensive-rebounding team in the country, while the Cornhuskers struggle in that category. If the former can generate second-chance opportunities frequently, it'll be tough for their opponents to compete. Nebraska's had a great season - this marks its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2014 - but doesn't have the physicality or toughness to compete with Texas A&M.
Pick: Texas A&M +1
(13) Charleston team total: Over 81.5 points
Game time: 7:40 p.m. ET
Charleston is a 9.5-point underdog against 4-seed Alabama. The total of 173 marks the NCAA Tournament's largest this century, and it's not hard to see why. The Crimson Tide boast the third-best offense in the country, averaging 90.8 points per game. But their defense is among the worst of all major conference programs.
Alabama plays at a lightning-quick speed and loves to jack up threes. Charleston plays a similar style, frequently shooting from beyond the arc and playing at a fast pace. The Cougars may not pull off the upset against the Crimson Tide's high-powered offense, but they'll easily score against their opponent's porous defense.
Charleston has scored at least 82 points in five of its last seven games, while Alabama has allowed at least 82 in seven of its last nine contests. This will be a track meet - and I like the underdog to light up the scoreboard.
Odds: -120
(12) James Madison vs (5) Wisconsin (-5.5, O/U 145)
Game time: 9:45 p.m. ET
James Madison won 31 games this season and hasn't lost since Jan. 27. One of those victories included an opening night triumph over Michigan State, Wisconsin's Big Ten foe.
The Sun Belt might not match the Big Ten's physicality, but it's no cakewalk of a conference.
Wisconsin's been streaky all season, especially from three. It lost eight of 11 games to close out the regular season, although it got hot in the Big Ten Tournament before losing to Illinois in the final. It's hard to trust such an inconsistent team.
James Madison will win this game from beyond the arc. Wisconsin allowed opponents to shoot 37% from three, one of the worst marks in the entire country and the worst of any tournament team.
The Badgers won't have an answer for the Dukes' dependable shooters. As long as James Madison doesn't go cold from long range, this has the signs of a classic 12-seed versus 5-seed upset.
Pick: James Madison +5.5 and ML
(12) Grand Canyon @ (5) Saint Mary's (-5.5, O/U 131.5)
Game time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Saint Mary's is a terrific offensive-rebounding team, but it doesn't score efficiently and struggles mightily from the free-throw line. Grand Canyon, meanwhile, is the nation's fifth-best free-throw shooting team. If the Gaels can create extra possession on the glass, their offense might have a chance to keep up.
In both 2023 and 2022, Saint Mary's avoided the upset as a 5-seed. This time around, the Gaels have weathered the storm since Joshua Jefferson, their fourth-leading scorer and second-leading rebounder, injured his knee in February. But his presence will be missed in this matchup.
The key for Grand Canyon will be controlling the boards. At the very least, Tyon Grant-Foster's star power should be enough for Grand Canyon to keep it close.
Pick: Grand Canyon +5.5
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
