NBA Rookie of the Year rankings: Flagg leads 1st-year standouts
With the 2025-26 NBA campaign less than a week away, here's a look at the top five candidates to win the league's Rookie of the Year award.
π Rookie of the Year odds can be found on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here
Three of Brooklyn's four leading scorers from last season departed the organization. After drafting five rookies in the first round, the Nets are fully invested in the development of their young players. That starts with Egor Demin, the eighth overall selection in June.
While Cam Thomas and Michael Porter Jr. will be the team's most established scorers, it doesn't make sense to gift them extra opportunities at the expense of their prospects' growth, especially considering the Nets are in a complete rebuild.
Demin was a polarizing prospect because of his brutal shooting numbers, but he's the best passer in his class and a brilliant pick-and-roll playmaker. His pace, deceleration, and processing create a more NBA-ready prospect than many of his counterparts. The former overseas pro will get reps as the primary point guard. He shot 27% from three and 69% from the free-throw line - concerning numbers for NBA scouts - during his lone collegiate season at BYU. But Demin has a decent-looking stroke and improved his shooting numbers at Summer League.
Rookie of the Year odds: +7500
The Wizards ranked dead last in offensive rating last year. Tre Johnson is the scoring machine they need to inject life into their offense. He averaged 19.9 points per game for Texas last season and shot 39.7% from distance.
He should fit alongside CJ McCollum, Bub Carrington, and Khris Middleton, all of whom can create shots for Johnson. The Rookie of the Year race isn't always about the best long-term prospect but rather who has the best opportunity in Year 1. Johnson's situation likely won't include many immediate wins, but it will feature plenty of scoring chances to impress voters.
The most important move Ace Bailey could have made before playing a game was abandoning his agent, Omar Cooper, who tanked the rookie's draft stock with a foolish approach.
Now, Bailey can focus strictly on basketball, where his length, athleticism, and scoring prowess project him to have a long and fruitful career. The Rutgers product has often struggled with efficiency and shot selection, which likely won't immediately improve on a tanking Jazz team. However, he'll earn numerous shot attempts and scoring opportunities, resulting in high raw numbers. Unlike Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, and VJ Edgecombe - the latter isn't on this list despite his incredible upside because he's joining a crowded backcourt in Philadelphia - Bailey is entering a losing situation. There are pros and cons to that, but he'll have the stats to exist in the Rookie of the Year conversation.
Rookie of the Year odds: +1100
Dylan Harper could become the third straight Spur to win Rookie of the Year - a potential first in league history. Overreacting to the preseason is irresponsible, but it's noteworthy how impressive Harper has looked. He already has a natural feel for the game and can operate as a scorer and playmaker out of the pick-and-roll. San Antonio's backcourt depth will hurt Harper's candidacy, especially with De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle assuming many of the on-ball responsibilities.
Harper, who averaged 19.4 points and four assists as a freshman at Rutgers, will earn plenty of minutes and, unlike many other high draft selections, won't be featured near the top of opposing teams' scouting reports. Improving his 3-point shooting - he shot 33% from deep in college - is the next step in Harper's development. But playing alongside Victor Wembanyama will naturally create cleaner looks for him.
Rookie of the Year odds: +1300
As long as Cooper Flagg meets the 65-game requirement, he's a lock to win Rookie of the Year. Flagg checks every box of a generational prospect as a high-IQ, 6-foot-9 wing who can handle the ball, create for himself, shoot, and pass effectively. He also possesses every intangible required to be great.
He's just as dominant defensively as he is offensively, meaning it won't be long before he's one of the league's best two-way players. Flagg is entering a unique situation on a team trying to win quickly while counting on its first overall pick to carry a huge load. The Duke product will be Dallas' lead shot-creator as Kyrie Irving rehabs an ACL injury. He even started at point guard in the Mavericks' preseason game versus the Jazz. The normal bumps and bruises of adjusting to the NBA will naturally arise, but Flagg will emerge as a great professional player in Year 1.
Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more basketball coverage.
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