On Tuesday, we previewed the Western Conference first-round matchups and provided our favorite bets. Later this week, we'll discuss series-long player props worth wagering on and key players who could determine series outcomes.
First, it's time to preview the three determined Eastern Conference first-round showdowns. The Cavaliers will play the winner of Friday's Hawks-Heat game. Cleveland will be a massive favorite in a likely short series.
No. 2 Celtics (-6000) vs. No. 7 Magic (+1800)
This series is one of the few foregone conclusions in a first round featuring incredibly competitive matchups. As the odds indicate, there's no chance the Magic will win or even compete against the defending champion Celtics.
Injuries have destroyed Orlando's once-promising season. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner missed significant time, but both are back. However, Jalen Suggs and Mo Wagner are out for the season. For the second consecutive campaign, the Magic had one of the NBA's worst offenses, including a dead-last ranking in 3-point shooting. The free-agent addition of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was supposed to help the Magic's shooting woes, but instead, he had one of the worst offensive seasons of his career.
The Magic win games because of their second-ranked defense. They have individual defenders capable of guarding Boston's stars one-on-one - essential to limiting the Celtics' drive-and-kick offense predicated on beating defenders off the dribble and getting into the lane.
The problem is that the Celtics have too many offensive weapons for the Magic to contain. Boston's offense is virtually unstoppable with as many talented perimeter players as it has. Orlando's offense can't keep up, especially against the Celtics' fourth-best defense.
The Celtics limited Jaylen Brown's workload down the stretch as he dealt with a knee injury that required injections. While that's something to monitor and could hinder the Celtics' chances to repeat, it won't impact their chances against the Magic.
The talent gap is too large for Orlando to overcome, leading to a uncompetitive series that should be over in four or five games at most.
Pick: Celtics series spread -3.5 (+130), Celtics to win in five games (+175)
No. 3 Knicks (-400) vs. No. 6 Pistons (+290)
More bettors are on the Pistons than the Knicks on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. In fact, the Pistons are the most popular first-round selection of any series. I understand why there are so many Knicks skeptics. New York went 0-8 against the Celtics and Cavs. However, as I previously explained, the Knicks were missing at least one starter in four of those games, and two full-strength matchups were back in October.
Well, didn't the Pistons already beat the Knicks in three out of four games? Sure, but New York was without at least one starter in two of those three losses as well.
New York is relatively healthy entering the playoffs. Jalen Brunson hasn't looked completely like himself since returning from an ankle injury earlier in April, but he's had a week to recover leading up to Game 1. He's also been one of the league's best and most clutch playoff performers over the last couple of postseasons, so there shouldn't be any worries about his readiness.
For all the analysis about how the Knicks will counter the Pistons targeting Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns defensively by putting Josh Hart on screener Jalen Duren or the various pre-switching they'll implement, the series prognosis is pretty simple. Whoever has the better players will almost always win a seven-game series. The Knicks have four of the five best players in the series, with Cade Cunningham as the lone Piston.
The Knicks will do everything to get the ball out of Cunningham's hands, forcing Malik Beasley, Tobias Harris, Ausar Thompson, Ron Holland, Duren, and others to make plays, many of whom don't have playoff experience.
Cunningham is an established star, but this is his first playoff run, where he'll see different coverages and adjustments designed to eliminate his strengths. Other teams could expose the Knicks' defensive vulnerabilities with Brunson and Towns, but the Pistons' offense has been merely average. Detroit's toughness and rebounding could trouble the Knicks at times, but New York is the significantly better team.
Pick: Knicks series spread -1.5 (-145), Under 5.5 total games (even)
No. 4 Pacers (-200) vs. No. 5 Bucks (+170)
Damian Lillard's health is a significant factor in this series. While he'll begin the series sidelined, he's reportedly recovering well from a blood clot and could return at some point. However, blood clots aren't a simple injury, so it's fair to assume Lillard will miss the first round.
Last year, the Pacers beat the Bucks in the opening round, but Milwaukee was without Giannis Antetokounmpo the entire series, and Lillard only played four games. Yet, the Bucks still pushed the series to six games. Tyrese Haliburton struggled, averaging 16 points per game on 43% shooting from the field and 29% from three.
This season, Antetokounmpo has had one of his most dominant years and has been on a tear the past few months. The Bucks are entering the playoffs on an eight-game winning streak without Lillard.
Antetokounmpo is the best player in this series by a monumental margin. While Pascal Siakam will start out guarding the Greek Freak and numerous Pacers will take turns while their defense loads up in help, Indiana can't guard his freight-train presence.
The Pacers' defense has improved over the last few months, and Haliburton returned to All-Star form, but Antetokounmpo is good enough to will the Bucks to a win. He must receive help from his questionable supporting cast, including Brook Lopez, Kyle Kuzma, Bobby Portis, and Kevin Porter Jr. I'm willing to take that gamble against a Pacers group that made a fraudulent Eastern Conference finals run last season.
Pick: Bucks to win series (+170)
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
