The NBA playoffs are upon us. Much has changed throughout the NBA landscape since the season tipped off in October, but the arduous journey for contending teams is just beginning.
We're breaking down the Western Conference playoff series and providing our favorite bets. The only series we're not discussing is the Thunder's first-round matchup. They'll play the Grizzlies, Kings, or Mavericks in the opening round, but that won't be determined until Friday night. Regardless of the opponent, the Thunder, who are -145 favorites to make the NBA Finals, will be a gigantic favorite.
No. 2 Rockets (+160) vs. No. 7 Warriors (-190)
The Rockets went from a team that didn't qualify for the play-in tournament last season to the second-best record in the West. Head coach Ime Udoka has done a phenomenal job developing a young group and building a physical defense.
This is a difficult matchup for the Warriors. Houston has recently implemented a ginormous lineup featuring Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams. As a result, the Rockets lead the NBA in rebounding and offensive rebounding percentage.
The Warriors mostly play small lineups with Draymond Green at center. Although Golden State is a top-eight team in defensive rebounding, the Rockets should dominate the offensive glass, creating extra possessions.
Houston has a ton of tenacious physical defenders to throw at Steph Curry, including Amen Thompson, Dillon Brooks, and Tari Eason. It held the two-time MVP under 20 points in two of the three games it faced him, including a 1-for-10 shooting effort in a win over the Warriors earlier this month. Curry was visibly frustrated by the Rockets' physicality. In those games, Golden State's offense averaged 97 points, a significant drop-off from its usual 113 points per game.
However, playoff basketball is a different beast. It's hard to succeed without having gone through previous postseason battles. The experience gap between the Warriors and Rockets is akin to Tom Brady facing a college quarterback in the Super Bowl. Six of Houston's top eight scorers, including its two best players - Sengun and Jalen Green - have never appeared in a playoff game.
Not only are the Rockets without playoff scars, but they don't have a go-to option late in games. Green is their leading scorer, but he's not an elite creator and struggles with efficiency. As a result, Houston had one of the worst clutch offenses among playoff teams.
Meanwhile, the Warriors are 23-7 with Jimmy Butler, who has fit seamlessly in Golden State's system. Since the All-Star break, the Warriors have the league's best defense and the seventh-best offense. Despite the Rockets' toughness and physicality, their experience and talent don't compare to the Warriors'.
Pick: Warriors series spread -1.5 (-110), Warriors to win 4-2 (+290)
No. 3 Lakers (-200) vs. No. 6 Timberwolves (+160)
Less than a year ago, the Timberwolves mistakenly switched a Luka Doncic ball screen, leaving Rudy Gobert on an island as the Mavericks trailed by two with a few seconds remaining. Doncic took advantage of the slow-footed big, stepping back and drilling a 3-pointer to gift the Mavs a 2-0 series lead. Dallas eventually defeated Minnesota to earn a trip to the Finals.
A lot has changed since then. Most notably, Doncic now plays for the Lakers. But he'll still have opportunities to embarrass Gobert, with the Lakers facing the Wolves in the opening round. Gobert will play an instrumental role in the outcome of this series - more specifically, how much Minnesota opts to play him against small lineups.
The Lakers don't have a dependable center on their roster, so they often implement small-ball lineups featuring Rui Hachimura at center. With five shooters on the floor - Hachimura shoots 41% from three - the Wolves will have to match Los Angeles' smaller lineups because of Gobert's inability to guard the perimeter.
L.A. has a questionable defense with limited rim protection and vulnerable perimeter defenders. The Wolves will put Doncic in action and make him defend, which Mavs general manager Nico Harrison insists is the reason he was traded. Los Angeles' plan will involve blitzing and doubling Anthony Edwards, who led the NBA in clutch points this season. He's had mixed results as a playmaker out of double teams. This series will ultimately come down to the offensive production of Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, and the rest of the Wolves' supporting cast.
On the other side of the ball, the Wolves have the sixth-best defense. But they don't have enough capable defenders to limit the Lakers' trio of Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves, all of whom average at least 20 points.
The track record and playoff experience of the Lakers' stars are too great to ignore. They have three legitimate late-game options on offense, and Doncic and James are two of the best and smartest playmakers ever. Meanwhile, Randle's playoff history isn't pretty.
The Lakers have the third-best clutch 3-point percentage and seventh-best clutch offense. While these games should be competitive, there are more reasons to trust L.A. in crunch time.
Pick: Lakers series spread -1.5 (+120)
No. 4 Nuggets (even) vs. No. 5 Clippers (-120)
Ivica Zubac has emerged as one of the NBA's best centers and a stalwart defensively. He'll be tasked with guarding the world's best player, Nikola Jokic. But this series won't be about Jokic, who will likely generate ungodly numbers as usual. The question is: How will the other Nuggets perform?
Jamal Murray will ultimately decide the outcome. He went on a brilliant run as Jokic's co-star en route to the 2023 NBA Finals, but it's been mostly downhill for him since. Murray struggled in last year's playoffs, scoring 18.4 points per game on 40% shooting in Denver's second-round los to Minnesota in the second round.
The Nuggets guard got off to another slow start this season before re-emerging as a prolific scorer and shot-creator in February and March. However, Murray injured his hamstring at the end of March and returned for only two games. Denver needs Murray at full strength, but how can anyone trust his health or consistency?
Michael Porter Jr., Denver's third-leading scorer, also disappeared in last year's postseason, averaging 10.7 points on 37% shooting in the Minnesota series. Porter just had the best regular season of his career, but it's hard to anticipate which version of him will show up in the postseason.
Remember, the Nuggets fired head coach Michael Malone and general manager Calvin Booth in the final week of the regular season. That means interim head coach David Adelman, who's never led an NBA team, will roam Denver's sidelines.
Over the last 15 games, the Clippers have the league's best net rating, best offense, and third-best defense. Kawhi Leonard isn't as impactful as Jokic, but he's playing at an All-NBA level and is the healthiest he's been entering the postseason since the 2020 bubble. The non-superstars will determine the outcome, and the Clippers have more reliable help.
The Clippers' four-man lineup of Leonard, Zubac, James Harden, and Norman Powell rivals any in the NBA, outscoring opponents by 15.6 points per 100 possessions.
Aaron Gordon will initially guard Leonard. When the Nuggets force the ball out of Leonard's hands with double-teams, his teammates are capable of taking advantage of four-on-three situations and finding great shooters. Los Angeles leads the league in 3-point percentage over the last 15 games.
The Clippers have won 17 of their last 20 games. Between its shooting, defense, coaching edge, and trustworthy secondary players, L.A. will advance to the second round.
Pick: Clippers to win series (-120), series to go 7 games (+200)
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
