With the 2024-25 campaign approaching, we're diving deep into some of the players we're most interested in watching. Next up: an explosive but polarizing guard entering a pivotal season for an emerging team.
Previous entries: Damian Lillard, Darius Garland, Christian Braun
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair."
Charles Dickens sure wrote trenchantly - and prophetically - about Jalen Green's 2023-24 campaign.
It truly was a tale of two seasons for the Rockets' former No. 2 pick. As a third-year player, Green was developmentally stagnant and endlessly frustrating … until quite suddenly he became one of the most electrifying young guards in the league. His month of March marked an in-season turnaround unlike any in recent memory.
Up to that point, Green was averaging 17.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists, shooting 48% from 2-point range and 31% from deep. He'd made some real strides at the defensive end, but offensively he continued to be held back by shaky shooting, poor at-rim finishing, limited playmaking vision, and questionable decision-making.
In a role that often required him to serve as an off-ball complement to veteran point guard Fred VanVleet and ascendant playmaking center Alperen Sengun (picked 16th in the same 2021 draft as Green), he struggled to find the appropriate balance of assertiveness and deference. He was a ghost down the stretch of games, running a 12% crunch-time usage rate. It didn't help that he was shooting less than 30% off the catch.
Things got particularly dire in February, when he averaged 15.8 points on 46% true shooting during his worst month of the season. Even taking his youth into account, it was fair to question where he fit into Houston's long-term plans.
Then the calendar flipped and Green exploded, averaging 27.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.9 assists on 61% true shooting (56/41/77 splits) in March. He showed a newfound facility for changing speeds and patiently probing as a pick-and-roll ball-handler. Seemingly overnight, he became an expert at splitting hedges and traps. He went from shooting 56% at the rim to 72%, finally marrying his elite athleticism with real midair craft to execute some wildly acrobatic finishes. He routinely took control in crunch time, confidently making plays for himself and his teammates. And, oh yeah, he shot 42% on 5.5 pull-up threes a game.
Green's a streaky player, but he'd never come close to an extended streak like that before. It wasn't empty production, either. The Rockets went 13-2 for the month to storm back into the play-in picture, notably doing so without Sengun for the last 10 of those games. They were a bottom-10 offense before then, but during that 15-game stretch they ranked third despite their offensive fulcrum being sidelined for most of it. They turbocharged their pace and jacked up their 3-point rate, with Green orchestrating the dance. They outscored opponents by 15.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
Clouding the picture was the fact that this stretch coincided with the softest patch of Houston's schedule, and that as soon as April hit and the competition stiffened, Green's magic seemed to dissipate almost as quickly as it had appeared. His season, and the Rockets', ended with a whimper.
If you're not entirely sure what to do with all that conflicting data, you aren't alone. Houston's front office doesn't seem to know what to make of it, either, and as a result there appears to be an impasse in extension negotiations with Green. The lack of a long-term agreement at this stage is totally fine; the worst-case scenario for the Rockets is Green becoming a restricted free agent for whom they can match any contract offer next summer. But it makes for an extremely interesting and potentially high-stakes campaign for both player and team.
Probably the biggest question the Rockets will be hoping to have answered is how much of Green's blowup was attributable to Sengun's absence, and to what extent they can harmonize the best versions of those two players. Sengun is also extension-eligible this summer, and despite the fact that he's shown far more growth and consistent production than Green across three seasons, he also finds himself without a new deal.
Houston is juggling a ton of different developmental priorities right now, with budding combo big man Jabari Smith Jr., second-year standouts Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore, third-year defensive ace Tari Eason, and tantalizing rookie Reed Sheppard flanking Green and Sengun, along with rugged vets VanVleet and Dillon Brooks. The more crowded the young-talent pipeline gets around them, the harder it is to imagine the Rockets paying both guys their next contracts.
That could change if Green and Sengun manage to really sync up this coming season. Their two-man game did improve in 2023-24, but Sengun ultimately had a lot more success running pick-and-rolls and dribble-handoff actions with VanVleet, while Green's best moments came with the freakishly athletic Thompson playing small-ball five in Sengun's place.
What's the ideal role for Green, anyway? It once seemed like he'd best serve the Rockets as a kind of hybrid guard who tilted toward play-finishing, but he looked a lot more comfortable and self-assured once Sengun's injury forced the ball into his hands. It's also worth noting Green was a fair bit better on pull-up threes (33.5%) than catch-and-shoots (31.6%) last season, and that he's the rare player for whom that isn't an outlier; he has nearly equivalent numbers on those shot types for his career. It might just be a more comfortable shot for him. He can manufacture a ton of separation with his step-back, after all.
Regardless, Sengun's skill set - and the realities of modern offense - dictate that he'll be at the center of everything Houston does on offense when he's on the floor, which means Green will have to readjust. He clearly underwent a mindset shift when Sengun went down; now the Rockets need him to bottle that assertive mentality and apply it to a role in which he'll spend less time with the ball and more time orbiting Sengun, VanVleet, and possibly even Sheppard, who, on top of his shooting prowess, flashed some serious on-ball juice in Summer League.
For all the pops of self-created scoring peppering Green's young career, he's yet to demonstrate that he has the playmaking instincts to be a true lead guard. But that limitation, if it remains as such, doesn't have to prevent him from being a foundational piece in Houston. Zach LaVine with better defense would be a great outcome - and not a wildly unrealistic one - for Green and the Rockets. To actualize that potential, he has to prove he can sustain some semblance of the jump shooting and rim finishing he demonstrated in March over the course of a full season. And he needs to make better use of the physical tools that could make him one of the best slashers and off-the-catch attackers in the league.
Even if his monthlong offensive explosion proves largely to be a mirage, his continued defensive growth could be a significant variable for the 2024-25 Rockets, especially when you think about the potential viability of him and Sheppard - who'll likely need a good deal of insulation in his debut season - playing together.
Houston didn't have to make any major decisions regarding its core pieces this summer, but those decisions loom on the not-too-distant horizon. The 30-year-old VanVleet doesn't feel like a long-term solution, and he has just one guaranteed year left on his contract (plus a 2025-26 team option). Heck, the front office has already reportedly tried to pre-empt those big decisions by dangling some assets in trade proposals for veteran stars.
Whether or not you think that's a good idea, the writing is on the wall: The Rockets know they won't be able to pay all their young guys coming up for lucrative new deals. This season will likely determine which side of the commitment line they wind up on regarding Green.
Joe Wolfond covers the NBA for theScore.
