More than any other event on the NBA calendar, the draft is shrouded in reports, rumors, and smoke screens, making it a wild evening of entertainment.
After Jabari Smith - the betting favorite for the No. 1 pick last year - fell to No. 3, truly anything could play out Thursday.
With that in mind, let's break down three valuable bets in the lottery as markets try to get in front of all the late movement.
Anthony Black to go at No. 6 (+375)
A combination of fit and a rise up the draft board should make Arkansas guard Anthony Black the favorite to go at No. 6 to the Orlando Magic. Yet he only has the third-best odds at +375. With the top three set in stone, and the Houston Rockets and Detroit Pistons stocked with guards at No. 4 and 5, Orlando is Black's first realistic landing spot.
Though the Magic could take a wing or forward themselves, they were a proponent of playing rising star Franz Wagner in the frontcourt next to Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter, making it seem like drafting a backcourt player is the play. With Black's continued ascent through a very strong pre-draft process, he makes sense as the choice here.
To top it all off, the Magic tend to prioritize positional size when making draft selections, and Black measured as the longest point guard by standing reach in this year's combine. If his number drops into the +100s, it may not be worth a bite, but there's value at anything above that.
Cam Whitmore to go at No. 9 (+700)
Long considered a candidate to be selected as high as No. 4 to the Rockets, Villanova forward Cam Whitmore has slowly trickled down mock drafts due to concerns over his work ethic and overall performance during workouts. The Rockets seem set on Amen Thompson with their pick. More importantly, the Pistons at No. 5 reportedly weren't fans of Whitmore during his workout and are more likely to go with Jarace Walker or Ausar Thompson with that selection.
From there, things start to get very murky for Whitmore's camp, especially if the aforementioned Black deal works out. The Indiana Pacers come in at No. 7, but they just drafted a fellow 6-foot-6 wing in Bennedict Mathurin last season. At No. 8, the Washington Wizards didn't even work out Whitmore in the pre-draft process.
Finally, the Utah Jazz at No. 9 are a relatively blank slate outside of scoring forward Lauri Markkanen, who has an entirely different game to Whitmore's.
All the proof needed to back up the slide comes in current betting odds. Whitmore isn't the favorite in any pick slot but is second multiple times. Should teams remain on course to take their projected selection, there simply isn't enough room in the top eight for him to land. By the time the Jazz pick ninth, it'd make sense to put a wager on Whitmore with such great value at +800.
Kobe Bufkin to go at No. 8 (+700)
Whitmore's loss could end up being Kobe Bufkin's gain. Should Amen Thompson, Walker, and Black be selected at Nos. 5 through 7 in some order, the Wizards would only have a few premier options at No. 8. As previously mentioned, Whitmore didn't work out with Washington, leaving his availability there as a question mark.
The Wizards just traded Bradley Beal, are reportedly in the process of trading Kristaps Porzingis, and will likely lose Kyle Kuzma in free agency. That could leave them without any player who averaged more than 11 points per game last season.
Enter Bufkin, a scoring combo guard who blossomed as a sophomore this past season at Michigan. Bufkin is still young for the draft cycle, is considered a talented scorer, and has as much potential as any guard remaining on the board at this point given his late rise in the draft since the college season ended. At +700, the chance that Bufkin is Washington's preferred pick of the remaining options possesses strong value.
