UFC 326 predictions: Can Oliveira pull off upset vs. Holloway?
theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks ahead of Saturday's UFC 326 in Las Vegas.
BMF championship
Max Holloway (27-8)
vs.
Charles Oliveira (36-11, 1 NC)
Eleven years after headlining UFC Saskatoon as two young up-and-comers, Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira are running it back with the BMF title on the line.
While their first meeting ended prematurely when Oliveira suffered an injury in the first round, this rematch has all the makings of a Fight of the Year candidate. Holloway and Oliveira have produced some of the most entertaining and memorable fights of this era - toss them in the Octagon together and it'll be magic 10 out of 10 times.
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There are several ways Saturday's main event could play out, but Holloway has the edge on paper. The 34-year-old Hawaiian seems to have more gas left in the tank than his 36-year-old opponent, having won four of his last five, including a unanimous decision over Dustin Poirier and an iconic knockout of Justin Gaethje. Oliveira, meanwhile, has alternated wins and losses in his last seven appearances and hasn't won consecutive bouts since 2022.
Oliveira could use his world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu to pull off the upset, but Holloway doesn't give up takedowns easily. I expect Holloway to have the upper hand in the stand-up department and to test Oliveira's chin late.
The pick: Holloway, fifth-round TKO
Middleweight bout
Caio Borralho (17-2, 1 NC)
vs.
Reinier de Ridder (21-3)
Caio Borralho and Reinier de Ridder are both eager to get back on track after recent losses to Brendan Allen and Nassourdine Imavov, respectively, halted their momentum at 185 pounds. De Ridder didn't look like himself when he gassed out and retired on the stool against Allen at UFC Vancouver in October, and he's since revealed that a health issue might be the cause of his puzzling performance. He won't have an easy time against Borralho, who has superior grappling and is a more technical fighter overall. But if the Dutchman uses all his weapons and pressures Borralho on the feet, he can eke out a decision.
The pick: De Ridder, unanimous decision
Bantamweight bout
Rob Font (22-9)
vs.
Raul Rosas Jr. (11-1)
We're about to find out just how legit Raul Rosas Jr. is. This fight against Rob Font is the 21-year-old's first genuine test since he lost to Christian Rodriguez in 2023, and it's a great measuring stick as he looks to start facing the division's best. I think it'll be a good night at the office for Rosas, who should be able to use his grappling to nullify Font's advantage in the striking department.
The pick: Rosas, third-round submission
Lightweight bout
Drew Dober (28-15, 1 NC)
vs.
Michael Johnson (24-19)
This is a coin-flip fight if I've ever seen one. Drew Dober and Michael Johnson each have a lot of wins and a lot of losses. Both can knock people out, and both can get knocked out. I'll take Johnson, who's won three in a row and still has quick hands at the age of 39.
The pick: Johnson, second-round TKO
Middleweight bout
Gregory Rodrigues (18-6)
vs.
Brunno Ferreira (15-2)
This is another tough fight to call. Gregory Rodrigues and Brunno Ferreira squared off in the Octagon in January 2023, with Ferreira winning by first-round knockout. Rodrigues is the betting favorite this time, but in the end, history repeats itself.
The pick: Ferreira, second-round knockout
Rapid-fire bets
π Best overall bet: Max Holloway (-210) def. Charles Oliveira
Holloway is arguably one of the 15 greatest fighters in UFC history. And he showed in his last fight against Dustin Poirier that he isn't slowing down anytime soon.
π Bet underdog bet: Reinier de Ridder (+200) def. Caio Borralho
De Ridder is a bit undervalued here after a poor performance against Allen late last year. If the guy who beat Robert Whittaker and Bo Nickal shows up against Borralho, he has a good chance of pulling off the upset.
π Best prop bet: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira ends in KO/TKO/DQ (-170)
Seven of Rodrigues' last nine fights ended in a knockout, while half of Ferreira's UFC bouts saw the same result. These two middleweights are going to slug it out until someone hits the canvas.
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