Ahead of Saturday's UFC 280 in Abu Dhabi, theScore's Jack Browne makes his picks for the top bouts.
Lightweight championship
Charles Oliveira (33-8, 1 NC)
vs.
Islam Makhachev (22-1)
Oliveira might not have UFC gold wrapped around his waist anymore after missing weight ahead of his win over Justin Gaethje in May, but you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who believes the Brazilian isn't the best 155-pounder on the planet.
Since 2018, the 33-year-old has produced a magical run that few saw coming, blossoming from a talented but inconsistent fighter on the fringes of contention at featherweight into one of the most well-rounded monsters in the UFC. He's won 11 fights in a row at his more natural weight class, with 10 coming via finish. And the quality of his last four victories - Gaethje (first-round submission), Dustin Poirier (third-round submission), Michael Chandler (second-round TKO), and Tony Ferguson (unanimous decision) - rivals that of any top lightweight in the promotion's history.
If Oliveira is most people's pick for the cream of the crop at 155, his challenger would surely garner the second-most love. The heir apparent to Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev - unlike Oliveira - has always appeared destined to win a UFC championship. After losing his second fight in the UFC in 2015, Makhachev has looked untouchable while building a 10-fight winning streak. He's manhandled, embarrassed, and overwhelmed his opponents in ways that made the Nurmagomedov comparisons seem justified.
Oliveira always fights with almost reckless abandon, and that likely won't change even though he's facing an opponent with an elite grappling game. In fact, the Brazilian will welcome any attempts to take the fight to the mat. Oliveira's submission game is legendary (he holds the UFC record for submission wins at 16), and he loves to pressure opponents and create chaos to open up opportunities for himself. It makes him vulnerable, however, and we saw it almost backfire early in the fight against Chandler. But Oliveira is supremely durable, and Makhachev doesn't possess the stand-up power that Oliveira faced against the likes of Gaethje or Chandler.
Makhachev's path to victory is weathering the early storm and waiting for Oliveira to run out of steam, which has happened in his losses. The Russian fighter can then grind and control Oliveira, knowing the submission threat isn't as high. But unless he can use his scary ground-and-pound skills to earn a TKO win, it would still be a tightrope for Makhachev to walk to earn a decision victory. After failing to jump on board the Oliveira hype train in his last two fights, I won't make the mistake of underestimating him again.
The pick: Charles Oliveira, third-round submission
Bantamweight championship
Aljamain Sterling (21-3)
vs.
TJ Dillashaw (18-4)
Sterling shut up those who discredited his status as champion by giving a performance against Petr Yan in the rematch that was far more representative of his talent. Now, he can further cement his place atop the bantamweight hierarchy by defeating a former champion who didn't relinquish his belt inside the Octagon.
Dillashaw, who served a two-year doping suspension, will face Sterling in just his second fight since he was cleared to return to competition. Although he was undoubtedly one of the division's all-time greats prior to his ban, not only has it tarnished his legacy, but it has created doubts about his ability to dominate in the same way.
While he beat Cory Sandhagen via split decision in his return, the majority of the media saw the fight for Sandhagen. In fairness, Dillashaw was likely rusty in his first fight back, and Sandhagen is a top-five bantamweight. Still, it's hard to look past the fact that Sterling is at his peak and has fought fairly consistently, while Dillashaw is 36 years old in a division where the drop off the cliff comes quickly.
The strongest asset of both two fighters is their wrestling game. Picking who could get the upper hand in this area, therefore, is difficult. It wouldn't be surprising if they opt against challenging each other's wrestling and stick to a mostly stand-up exchange unless an obvious submission opening presents itself. While it would be assumed Dillashaw might have the advantage on the feet, Sterling's stand-up game is underrated. In a close-fought battle, the champion should be able to outlast Dillashaw.
The pick: Aljamain Sterling, unanimous decision
Bantamweight bout
Petr Yan (16-3)
vs.
Sean O'Malley (15-1, 1 NC)
We've all been waiting for O'Malley to make a jump up in competition - and, boy did the UFC deliver. The much-hyped prospect is getting thrown firmly into the deep end against former champion Yan, and he'll either emerge as a genuine title contender or see his rocketship to stardom crash back to earth.
The American has only faced one ranked opponent, Pedro Munhoz, during his UFC run, citing a desire to get paid to take on greater challenges. Their July bout was ruled a no-contest after a second-round eye poke by O'Malley, and although the first round was competitive, Munhoz was given the nod by two of the three judges. Meanwhile, O'Malley's only other notable challenge was against a then-unranked Marlon Vera, who handed O'Malley his first loss. O'Malley continues to argue the result doesn't count, as Vera only won because he suffered an ankle injury.
There's no denying O'Malley has flashed elite-level skills, especially on the feet, but it's still all projection with him. On the other hand, Yan is a proven commodity. He's just five months removed from being a big favorite in a unification bout against Sterling, who ended up winning via split decision. Sterling's relentless takedown attacks tipped the scales in his favor, but Yan likely won't have to worry about that with O'Malley, who loves to show off his hands first and foremost.
Yan and O'Malley are among the division's best strikers. Both boast a crisp stand-up game and are capable of attacking with volume, accuracy, and power. O'Malley has the reach advantage, but Yan is great at closing distance, avoiding strikes, and not taking damage, thanks to his high guard. O'Malley mixing in grappling could help his chances, but his desire to earn a highlight could force him into a harder route to victory. Ultimately, Yan's experience and aggression will win out.
The pick: Petr Yan, unanimous decision
