UFC 245 best bets: Covington, Volkanovski live underdogs

UFC 245 takes place Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The event features three title fights, including the welterweight main event between champion Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington.

Here are four of the best bets for the promotion's final pay-per-view card of the year.

Colby Covington (+160) vs. Kamaru Usman

There is no doubt that Usman versus Covington will be a close fight. From picking the champ to the challenger, I've gone back and forth on this fight ever since it was announced. But one thing has remained the same: my belief that Covington is a bigger underdog than he should be.

While Usman and Covington are not absolutely identical, there are a lot of similarities between the two, which indicates that this will be a very competitive bout. Usman is physically stronger, but there is a good chance Covington will put the pressure on the champ and make Usman fight at his pace.

If Usman's wrestling and Covington's wrestling neutralize each other, which seems like a good possibility, then this fight will be largely contested on the feet, where Covington has a slight advantage. Based on their styles, this bout will likely go the distance, so being the more active fighter is key in winning. That will be Covington if he's able to keep the fight where he wants it.

I am, in fact, siding with the grittier Covington to outwork Usman throughout the five-round affair, so laying money down on him as the underdog is a no-brainer.

Alexander Volkanovski (+155) vs. Max Holloway

Alexander Volkanovski is stylistically a nightmare for UFC featherweight champ Max Holloway and that will show when they square off in the evening's co-main event.

Volkanovski is only a small underdog against the Hawaiian titleholder but I still think there's value in him. A former rugby-league standout who used to weigh north of 210 pounds, the 31-year-old - who, keep in mind, now fights at 145 pounds - is a beast for the division. Volkanovski has excellent grappling and his strength is absurd. If he's able to take Holloway down, there's a good chance he'll hold him down and bully him with ground-and-pound.

Holloway is the better striker, but Volkanovski has a reach advantage - despite being 5 inches shorter than the champ - so it'll be a bit tougher than usual for Holloway to jab his way to victory.

This fight largely comes down to where it's contested. If it's on the feet, Holloway will generally be winning. But if it's on the ground - and I think Volkanovski will be able to use his strength and control to get it and keep it there - the Australian will take it.

Ketlen Vieira (-175) vs. Irene Aldana

This betting line makes it seem like people have forgotten about Ketlen Vieira - which is understandable, given she's been off for nearly two years. While Vieira is soft-spoken and not talked about much, she is one of the best fighters in the women's bantamweight division and should be a bigger favorite against Irene Aldana.

You always have to consider ring rust when a fighter is returning from a significant layoff, but most fighters will tell you that they don't believe in it and that it's more of a mental than a physical thing. So, as long as Vieira looks remotely like the same fighter who beat women's MMA pioneer Cat Zingano in March 2018, she'll get past Aldana with ease.

Aldana has some good wins under her belt, including a submission of Bethe Correia earlier this year, but Vieira is a big, big step up. Had it not been for the injury that's kept her sidelined, Vieira likely would've gotten a title shot by now. I expect she'll be able to dominate Aldana with her grappling prowess en route to a submission win.

Amanda Nunes / Petr Yan (-150)

Amanda Nunes, who defends her UFC women's bantamweight title against Germaine de Randamie, and Petr Yan, who faces Urijah Faber, are both big favorites.

But if you throw them in a parlay together, you get a reasonable -150 line, which I think is worth taking a stab at. Parlays come with higher risk and sticking to straight bets - especially in MMA - is always recommended, but this is a pretty safe one.

Nunes, coming off knockouts of ex-champs Holly Holm and Cris Cyborg in the past year, is considered the best female fighter of all time for good reason. She's dangerous everywhere. De Randamie is no doubt elite and worthy of this shot, but I suspect "The Lioness" will outclass her Saturday.

Yan might just be the next big thing at 135 pounds. He is undefeated in the Octagon and has consistently showed progression throughout his career.

Faber, a UFC Hall of Famer, has had his shine, but his best days are far behind him. Yan, 26, should be able to outmatch Faber, 40, in every area and overwhelm him with pressure until he scores a stoppage.