theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks ahead of Saturday's MVP MMA 1 card in Los Angeles, headlined by a blockbuster fight between Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano.
Women's featherweight main event
Ronda Rousey (12-2)
vs.
Gina Carano (7-1)
UFC Hall of Famer Ronda Rousey is back, and if anybody tells you they know how her fight against Gina Carano will play out, they're lying. Rousey, 39, and Carano, 44, have both been out of the MMA game for at least a decade, so anything can happen when these two legends touch gloves this weekend.
That said, Rousey should win. She's younger and, in theory, less rusty than Carano. Rousey is an Olympic bronze medalist in judo and made a name for herself by scoring quick armbar after quick armbar in her MMA career. If Rousey can get Carano on the ground early in the first round, I don't think Carano will have an answer.
If Carano takes Rousey into deep waters, then we'll have a compelling fight on our hands. But I'm taking Rousey to end Carano's night early on the ground.
The pick: Rousey, first-round submission
Welterweight bout
Nate Diaz (21-13)
vs.
Mike Perry (14-8)
Many MMA fans have circled this as the best fight on the card - and for good reason. Saturday's co-main event between Nate Diaz and Mike Perry has the potential to be a competitive, violent matchup.
Diaz is a long, rangy boxer whose entire game plan revolves around outlasting his opponents. He also has a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, which could come in handy here.
Perry, a former UFC fighter who has shone under the BKFC banner in recent years, is a brawler willing to eat two punches to dish out four. He'll look to put pressure on Diaz in the stand-up department and land the more damaging punches.
I've been going back and forth on this one, but I like Perry's chances a little bit more than Diaz's.
The pick: Perry, unanimous decision
Heavyweight bout
Francis Ngannou (18-3)
vs.
Philipe Lins (18-5)
This fight comes down to two things: Francis Ngannou might still be the best heavyweight in the world. And Philipe Lins is not.
Anything can happen when two heavyweights step into the cage, but it would be a massive upset if Lins beats Ngannou. This fight is designed for Ngannou to prove he still belongs on a big stage, and the former UFC heavyweight champion should be able to rely on his ferocious power and score a quick finish.
The pick: Ngannou, first-round knockout
Rapid-fire bets
Best overall bet: Ronda Rousey / Francis Ngannou / Jason Jackson (-227)
There's a lot of chalk on this card, so this parlay is a good way to squeeze some value out of the heavy favorites.
Best underdog bet: Nate Diaz (+160) def. Mike Perry
My official pick was Perry, but Diaz has the best shot to win out of all the underdogs on the card.
Best prop bet: Ronda Rousey wins by submission (-220)
Rousey has nine submissions in 12 professional MMA wins and has never gone the distance. If Rousey beats Carano, it'll most likely come on the ground.
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