UFC Oklahoma City predictions: Chiesa, Lee clash in their 1st main event

Prior to UFC Fight Night 112 in Oklahoma City on Sunday, theScore's Themistoklis Alexis and Alexander K. Lee give their predictions on the evening's main-card bouts.

Lightweight

Michael Chiesa (7-2 UFC, 14-2)
vs.
Kevin Lee (8-2 UFC, 15-2)

Alexis: No one talks about Chiesa's mom and gets away with it.

"Maverick" returns from a 14-month layoff to find himself in a grudge match opposite an improving prospect in the boisterous Lee. As he's done repeatedly since winning "The Ultimate Fighter 15," Chiesa should take this one to the ground and put his submission skills to work. Lee, however improved, remains a work in progress as a striker and should oblige Chiesa with a grappling match as a result, but it won't be long before Chiesa proves the superior submission artist and moves to back control to sink in his patented rear-naked choke.

THE PICK: Chiesa

Lee: "The Motown Phenom" has been talking a big game for months and now it's time for him to back it up in his first ever main event spot.

Outside of a bad outing against Leonardo Santos that ended in him getting TKO'd, Lee has looked like one of the lightweight division's brightest young talents. He doesn't turn 25 until September and he is already making a case that he's worthy of a top-10 ranking with finishes in his last three fights. Lee relies on a wrestling-heavy strategy, which could lead to trouble against Chiesa's submission savvy.

A steady diet of top control and ground-and-pound will keep Lee out of trouble and lead to a unanimous decision win.

THE PICK: Lee

Middleweight

Tim Boetsch (11-10 UFC, 20-11)
vs.
Johny Hendricks (13-6 UFC, 18-6)

Lee: "Bigg Rigg" is at his best when he has a target that's easy to hit and Boetsch fits that bill.

Even though Hendricks' power has mysteriously vanished in recent years (he has not recorded a KO victory since November 2012), he's still more advanced than Boetsch on the feet. Boetsch will have a noticeable size advantage, so when it comes to grappling, Hendricks' elite wrestling would be best used to hold Boetsch against the fence until he can safely create separation.

The once-feared left hand of Hendricks will keep Boetsch on his toes and he should be able to win on points as long as he avoids a clean shot.

THE PICK: Hendricks

Alexis: Hendricks is about to learn he isn't a natural middleweight - the hard way.

Whatever relief Bigg Rigg gained in snapping a three-fight skid with a win over Hector Lombard in his 185-pound debut will be blown to bits by Boetsch's granite right hand. Hendricks may have flashed fearsome power at welterweight, but it won't make the leap to his meeting with "The Barbarian," a converted light heavyweight who's finished 10 of 20 by knockout.

Boetsch by first-round KO.

THE PICK: Boetsch

Strawweight

Felice Herrig (3-1 UFC, 12-6)
vs.
Justine Kish (2-0 UFC, 6-0)

Alexis: Herrig pointedly reminded us all she comes from a solid kickboxing background when she outdueled Alexa Grasso in February, but it's her ground game that will be the difference in her date with Kish, who's no slouch on the feet herself.

Look for the far more experienced "Lil' Bulldog" to trade with Kish long enough to set up a takedown and work her way to a tapout for her third straight win.

THE PICK: Herrig

Lee: Kish is one of the most talented fighters in the strawweight division and were it not for injuries, she might have earned a spot in the top 15 of the UFC's rankings sooner. She can take that next step by getting past Herrig on Sunday.

A skilled kickboxer, Kish's first priority will be to keep this one standing, which is no easy task against the versatile Herrig. This fight will probably go down to the mat at least once and Kish will have to stay calm and patient to avoid being finished on the ground. If she can frustrate Herrig into brawling with her, the match becomes Kish's to lose.

THE PICK: Kish

Light Heavyweight

Joachim Christensen (1-2 UFC, 14-5)
vs.
Dominick Reyes (0-0 UFC, 6-0)

Lee: On chutzpah alone, you have to go with Reyes here. "The Devastator" is making a move to the big show less than a month after his head kick KO of a showboating opponent went viral.

That buzz is likely to carry over to his bout with Christensen, a 38-year-old veteran who has had mixed results inside the Octagon. Reyes likes to get in and take care of business fast and if Christensen thinks he's going to get any time to warm up, he's got another thing coming.

Reyes wins via strikes in Round 1.

THE PICK: Reyes

Alexis: Reyes won't need long to endear himself to UFC fans.

The undefeated newcomer has dispatched five of six pro scalps inside of a round, and while Christensen owns the edge in experience, he's been easily overwhelmed by younger, superior athletes in Henrique da Silva and Gadzhimurad Antigulov in a pair of UFC losses. If the Dane can't get this one to the ground pronto, he'll find himself on the wrong end of Reyes' sixth flash finish.

THE PICK: Reyes

Welterweight

Tim Means (8-5 UFC, 26-8-1)
vs.
Alex Garcia (4-2 UFC, 14-3)

Alexis: "The Dirty Bird" won't make the same mistake twice.

After being tossed around by the comparatively diminutive Alex Oliveira in his last outing, expect Means to get back to his thrashing ways against a shorter, stockier foe in Garcia. "The Dominican Nightmare" boasts dynamite in his hands, but he's struggled with lankier opponents such as Neil Magny and Sean Strickland in the past. Look for Means to exploit the discrepancy in length to set Garcia up for a late-round TKO.

THE PICK: Means

Lee: Means is as volatile a fighter as they come, with none of his last seven outings making it to the scorecards. Combined, he and Garcia have 33 finishes between them, a recipe for a violent end if there ever was one.

In this matchup, whoever is quicker to the punch will likely come out on top and that has always been one of The Dirty Bird's strengths. And as his name suggests, Means specializes in the kind of brawls that make more cerebral fighters like Garcia uncomfortable.

Once the action ramps up, it's Garcia who will wither first.

THE PICK: Means

Featherweight

BJ Penn (12-10-2 UFC, 16-11-2)
vs.
Dennis Siver (11-8 UFC, 22-11)

Lee: At last, the matchmakers found an opponent for Penn who won't overwhelm him with sheer athleticism.

Though Penn has already twice retired, he's actually only one month older than Siver, so this should come down to who has the superior skills. And skill has never been a problem for Penn.

As gifted as Siver is in the standup, his kicking game should be stifled by Penn's ability to counter and take Siver down. On the mat, Penn will have a clear advantage and it's entirely possible that he picks up his first submission win in almost eight years.

THE PICK: Penn

Alexis: In 2016, many believed this matchup would help Penn get his sea legs back in his return from retirement. A year later, it's Siver who'll be getting his confidence back.

Penn was little more than a human punching bag in his January comeback against Yair Rodriguez, and while Siver is far from a world-beater and ending a two-year layoff, he shouldn't have much trouble riding his Taekwondo-based attack to a win on points over the regressing legend.

THE PICK: Siver