Judge or Raleigh: Who's got the edge in AL MVP race?
The final month of the 2025 MLB season is upon us and the American League MVP race is far from settled. In one corner, we have New York Yankees captain Aaron Judge searching for his third AL MVP. In the other, it's Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh, who's never finished in the top 10 of voting.
The betting odds are tight. Judge, who seemed like a slam dunk at the All-Star break, is the favorite at -240. Meanwhile, Raleigh sits at +170 amid an unprecedented offensive campaign for a catcher.
The margins should be razor-thin. Are we heading toward the first tie in MVP voting since Willie Stargell and Keith Hernandez shared the NL honor back in 1979? Let's break down the race.
Who has the better bat? 💪
Judge is having another otherworldly offensive season. The 33-year-old leads the majors in batting average (.324), on-base percentage (.443), slugging percentage (.674), OPS (1.117), wRC+ (196), and fWAR (7.9). He's also scored an AL-high 110 runs and leads that league with 97 walks. Judge missed some time due to a flexor strain and fell behind Raleigh in the homer chase as a result, but he's still projected to record 50-plus long balls in back-to-back seasons and for the fourth time in his 10-year career.
What Raleigh is doing with his lumber as a backstop has never been seen before. The 28-year-old is the first catcher with a 50-homer season after breaking the single-season record of 48 round-trippers by a primary catcher (Salvador Perez, 2021). Raleigh's nine multi-homer games in 2025 also represent a new franchise mark for the Mariners after passing some guy named Ken Griffey Jr. Raleigh needs five more blasts to topple Mickey Mantle's record 54 long balls by a switch-hitter in a single season. The catcher is also on pace to make a serious run at Judge's AL record of 62 homers from 2022, which would be the ultimate statement in the MVP race.
Edge: Judge gets the nod because of his superior slash line, but Raleigh's historic season is hard to ignore. 🧑⚖️
Who's better defensively? 🧤
Judge is a solid right fielder, but it remains unclear if he'll return to the outfield this year following the injury to his throwing arm. He continues to prepare to play in the field again, but even his own manager, Aaron Boone, questioned whether the superstar would be able to throw again normally in 2025. Judge disputed the skipper's assessment, but the uncertainty still lingers. This impacts the MVP race because Judge's value decreases if he can only play as a designated hitter.
This is where Raleigh has a big advantage. The 2024 Platinum Glove and Gold Glove winner has a 12.9 defensive rating compared to Judge's minus-3.1 mark, according to FanGraphs. He also does a great job of controlling the running game, sitting in the top third in baseball in caught stealing above average. Raleigh's massive power numbers make it easy to forget he plays the most physically demanding position in baseball. He's already logged 103 games behind the plate this season and has made 481 appearances as a catcher since 2022. In addition, he needs to mentally prepare and execute a game plan with a pitcher - which he clearly does well, due to his elite framing.
Edge: Raleigh is the clear winner here. 🔱
Does team impact matter? 🤔
There have been plenty of MVP winners from bad teams, but the individual's performance usually has to be head and shoulders above their peers to overshadow the collective's poor results. This isn't the case in 2025. So who wins the award could depend on how the Yankees and Mariners fare down the stretch. Both clubs currently sit in a wild-card position. However, should one team somehow miss the postseason, it could open up a tiny crack for the other MVP candidate. Alternatively, if New York (three games out of the AL East lead) or Seattle (two games out of the AL West lead) ends up winning a division title, that could be the difference.
Edge: Too close to call. 🤏
Time to vote ✍️
The 2025 AL MVP is ... still up for major debate. Who do you think will win? Cast your vote below!