MLB weekend best bets: Paddack to bounce back vs. Phillies
We went 1-1 with our MLB picks Wednesday, correctly predicting Aaron Nola's demise but missing big time on Shohei Ohtani's collapse. Can we sweep the board over the holiday weekend? Here are our favorite bets.
Pirates under 3 runs (-125) vs. Brewers
July 1, 7:05 p.m. ET
For all of the attention Jacob deGrom's gotten this season, Corbin Burnes has put together a stellar campaign of his own. The Brewers star ranks second behind deGrom in FIP (1.19) and xFIP (2.01) among starters with 50-plus innings pitched, and his strikeouts per nine (13.7) in June led all NL starters.
Burnes should have no trouble with a Pirates lineup that's plated a combined two runs in its last three games and scored fewer than three runs in four of the team's last five contests.
Padres-Phillies under (TBD)
July 2, 6:05 p.m.
You don't need me to sell you on Zack Wheeler. The Phillies ace ranks second in the majors in pitching fWAR (3.8) and has allowed three or fewer runs in 14 of his 16 starts this season, boasting an 11-5 record to the under.
The bigger question is Chris Paddack, who was crushed for five runs in 2 1/3 frames against the lowly Diamondbacks in his last start. It was a curious result after the Padres righty had seemed to finally figure out his changeup, generating a career-high six of his 11 strikeouts with that pitch in a stellar five-inning display against the Reds in his previous outing.
Philadelphia's offense has been hit or miss lately, so perhaps this is the spot for Paddack to rediscover his former magic. With Wheeler toeing the rubber opposite him, it's worth playing the under in a compelling matchup.
Cubs under (TBD) at Reds
July 3, 4:10 p.m.
The Cubs' offense has been enigmatic all year, and the team still can't figure things out heading into July. Chicago ranks 28th in batting average (.223) as of Thursday and has scored two or fewer runs in a staggering 12 of its last 17 contests, posting an 11-5-1 record to the under on game totals in that span.
That pace should maintain against Tyler Mahle, who's had an inconsistent June but has shown flashes of brilliance against bad offenses. He punched out 12 Brewers in six innings of three-hit ball June 16, and he allowed just one hit through five frames in his last start against the Cubs on May 30.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.