Fantasy: 5 bust candidates at their current ADPs

Predicting baseball players' fantasy outcomes is about as exact a science as gambling on the lottery.

Unexpected injuries occur, slumps happen, and a number of other factors arise throughout a 162-game season.

With that in mind, here are five players to avoid at their average draft positions given the warning signs attached to them.

Average draft positions are from FantasyPros as of March 6.

All stats for 2020 projections are from FanGraphs.

Aaron Judge, Yankees - OF (ADP 38)

Judge's injury history makes him a fantasy risk, especially as an early-round selection.

When healthy, Judge is one of the most valuable hitters in baseball, accruing the fifth-most WAR among major-league hitters with at least 400 plate appearances since 2018. But he's also missed 110 games during that same time frame, hurting his fantasy value in the process.

Since 2018, 21 outfielders have hit more homers than Judge, while 47 others at the position have driven in more runs.

Typical 5x5 leagues normally reward homers and RBIs and stay away from categories like WAR. Because of that, fantasy owners might find more value in the early rounds drafting someone who can play an entire campaign, especially with Judge already missing games because of a mysterious shoulder/pectoral injury that could keep him out on Opening Day.

Adalberto Mondesi, Royals - SS (ADP 41)

Mondesi finished second in the majors in stolen bases last season, and he's being viewed as an integral piece in the Royals' lineup entering his prime. But taking him as high as he's been going off the board is risky.

The Royals shortstop is strikeout prone after whiffing during 29.8% of his plate appearances in 2019, and he also hasn't shown a lot of power throughout his career yet. His .161 ISO ranked 20th among shortstops with 400-plus plate appearances last season.

Mondesi's Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) - which measures a hitter's overall offensive value - in 2019 was one of the lowest among starting shortstops, bettering only Andrelton Simmons, Brandon Crawford, and Orlando Arcia, even while getting lucky with a .357 BABIP.

If Mondesi's on-base percentage continues to hover around his career .282 clip, there's a good chance his stolen base and runs scored totals will slide, too. That could leave his fantasy owners with one of the biggest busts if Mondesi goes in the early rounds.

Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals - 1B (ADP 52)

Not long ago, fantasy managers were considering taking Goldschmidt ahead of Mike Trout with the first overall pick in some drafts. He used to provide everything his owners needed: homers, runs, stolen bases, and more.

Goldschmidt is still a fine player to grab, but taking him too high could lead to getting burned.

While on the surface Goldy's projected numbers may look nice, the 32-year-old has lost a step and barely provides steals anymore. His isolated power has also been trending in the wrong direction for three straight years, going from .265 in 2017 to .216 in 2019. The veteran's batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and wRC+ all regressed last season too after switching to a new home park.

But more than just the ballpark is affecting Goldschmidt's performance.

Pitchers are getting ahead of him early in counts (his first-pitch strike percentage was the highest of his career in 2019), and he's also swinging at more pitches outside the zone than ever before (29.5 O-Swing percentage in 2019).

Don't be surprised if the Cardinals first baseman keeps declining, leaving owners who pick him too early wondering why they didn't use their third- or fourth-round selections on Matt Olson or Max Muncy instead.

Yu Darvish, Cubs - SP (ADP 65)

Darvish looked like his old self during the second half of last season, striking out hitters at a dominant rate (13 K/9) while keeping his walks down (seven free passes in 81 2/3 innings).

His late-season performance shot Darvish's ADP up prior to this campaign, but early-round buyers should beware.

Even with his impressive second half, Darvish still posted a career-high 22.8% HR/FB rate (33 homers allowed in total) in 2019 while finishing with a 3.98 ERA.

Darvish also didn't pitch well at Wrigley Field in 2019, producing a 4.96 ERA and giving up 19 home runs in 85 1/3 innings of work. Those struggles could lead to a regression this season since he'll likely pitch half his games at the historic stadium.

The 33-year-old also registered the second-highest FIP of his career in 2019, and he experienced a 4% uptick in hard-contact rate from his poor 2018.

None of that bodes well for owners considering Darvish ahead of pitchers like Tyler Glasnow and Chris Paddack, who have similar ADPs.

Tim Anderson, White Sox - SS (ADP 87)

Anderson may have won the American League batting title last season, but picking the notorious bat-flipper near the top 100 of any draft is a bad idea.

While the 26-year-old is enticing because of his .335 average in 2019, that may have been tied to good luck and a .399 BABIP. His highest BABIP over three previous seasons was .375, and he didn't post a batting average above .283 during that time.

Anderson also doesn't hit for much power (his ISO ranked 15th and his home runs ranked 16th among qualified shortstops in 2019), or score a lot of runs (81 runs in 2019, tied for 13th at his position).

Fantasy owners might be more successful picking other shortstop-eligible players like Eduardo Escobar (35 home runs in 2019, 118 RBIs) or Corey Seager (19 HRs, 87 RBIs). They're both projected to go after Anderson in drafts.