Signing Bryce Harper: Pros, cons, and predictions
In this six-part series, theScore's MLB editors break down the pros and cons of signing the top free agents in this year's class, and predict where they'll end up. Today, we're looking at Bryce Harper, the 2015 NL MVP and 2010 first overall pick of the Washington Nationals.
Pros/cons
He's the best hitter to become a free agent since A-Rod
Check this out:
| Player | AB | HR | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Rodriguez | 3126 | 189 | 138 |
| Bryce Harper | 3306 | 184 | 139 |
Those are Harper's career numbers against Rodriguez's before he hit free agency and signed a 10-year deal worth $252 million back in 2000 to join the Texas Rangers - A-Rod's contract would be worth approximately $370 million today when adjusted for inflation.
Rodriguez was heading into his age-25 season, whereas Harper just turned 26 years old in October. Harper was the Rookie of the Year, has earned MVP honors, and has made six All-Star appearances. A-Rod didn't capture his first MVP award until three years into his record deal and only made four All-Star appearances before entering free agency. It's an imperfect comparison, but the pair of first overall picks have followed a somewhat similar career trajectory thus far, and it was after he left the Mariners that Rodriguez really started to collect individual hardware.
But he's not very good defensively
While Rodriguez played a more premium defensive position at shortstop, Harper plays outfield and isn't particularly good at it. By FanGraphs' defensive metrics, he has cost the Nationals more than 30 runs over his seven seasons in the field. It's entirely possible Harper plays himself into a designated hitter role in the next few seasons, especially when considering the somewhat reckless way he plays the outfield.
He's the most marketable star in baseball
He may not be the best player in baseball, but that doesn't stop the free-agent superstar from being the most marketable name in the sport.
Despite playing his entire major-league career in a relatively small market (Washington has never finished top 10 in attendance), Harper has become the face of Major League Baseball. With the sport starving for that type of recognition, the right club could turn him into the next megastar, generating revenue beyond the expected increase in wins. Harper's likeness will grace the forthcoming edition of MLB The Show. Why not get your team's logo on there, as well?
No player can possibly be worth $300 million or more
If Harper does end up getting a record-breaking $300-million deal, there is very little wiggle room for the outfielder to generate surplus value. Over the past three seasons, since his MVP campaign, Harper has been worth just under $30 million annually by FanGraphs' $/WAR. If he maintains that production over the next 10 years, a $300-million deal would garner no surplus at all.
An American League team could give him nights off in the field, which may help his defense recover and result in Harper being worth more than the steep paycheck it will take to recruit him. He could also see a move to first base in future seasons. However, it's understandable why some teams would not be open to this risk.
Best fits
Philadelphia Phillies
They're well below the luxury-tax threshold, ready to spend a "stupid" amount of money, on the cusp of becoming a playoff team, play in a big market, and need an outfielder or two. It's a match made in heaven.
New York Yankees
Death, taxes, and the Yankees signing expensive free agents. They're under the luxury-tax threshold and may want to stay there, and already have a pretty stacked outfield. However, Greg Bird might not be the first baseman they were hoping for, and don't discount the impact the Boston Red Sox winning the World Series had on the Yankees' front office.
Los Angeles Dodgers
A host of other teams could round out this list, including the Nationals, but let's go with one of the teams that reportedly made a push to trade for Harper last season. The Dodgers have stated they wish to get and stay under the luxury-tax threshold, but they also have a seemingly insatiable thirst to finally win that elusive World Series title, so don't expect Los Angeles to sit idly by after clinching back-to-back NL pennants.
Prediction
Harper signs a 12-year, $336-million deal with the Phillies.