Road to the Masters: Latest analysis heading toward Augusta

The countdown to the Masters is on! We are less than 50 days away from the opening tee shot at Augusta National, where Rory McIlroy will attempt to defend his green jacket.

Plenty of meaningful golf has already been played this season, with six more tournaments - including the Players Championship - still to come before the Masters. Stay with us for weekly analysis of all the notable happenings in the world of golf leading into the season's first major championship.

Jump to: Scottie's slow starts | Rory's trending | Morikawa making moves | Reed domination | Gotterup's emergence | Quick hits

Scottie's slow starts

Scottie Scheffler won his first start of the new season at The American Express, but the narrative around his year so far is his horrible opening rounds.

In his last three tournaments, Scheffler is 5-over relative to par on Thursdays, losing an average of three shots to the field each opening day. However, he's a combined 51-under during the remaining three days, which is why his worst finish this year is a T12 at the Genesis Invitational. Had he shot even-par in Round 1 at both the WM Phoenix Open and Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he'd have three victories this season.

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The reasons behind Scheffler's repeated failures on Day 1 aren't clear, but strokes-gained data points to his iron play on Thursdays as the culprit. Although this uncharacteristic run is likely a blip on the radar and something Scheffler should correct ahead of the Players Championship, the slow starts could cost him a third green jacket unless he finds a solution soon.

Rory's trending ... again

McIlroy has made four worldwide starts this year, including two on the PGA TOUR, and appears to be trending toward another strong season. He placed T3 in Dubai and was a runner-up to Jacob Bridgeman at Riviera. Over his last three starts, he's gained seven or more strokes tee to green, mirroring his strong start to last year, which led to victories at the Players Championship and the Masters.

The last person to successfully defend the green jacket was Tiger Woods in the early 2000s. It took McIlroy over a decade to break his cursed Augusta track record, but now that he's broken through, perhaps he can become the fourth player to win back-to-back Masters.

Morikawa making moves

Collin Morikawa ended a winless streak that dated back to October 2023 with a victory at Pebble Beach earlier in February. His elite iron play appears to be back, having gained nearly 10 strokes on the field during his win. He followed that performance up with a T7 at the Genesis Invitational, thanks to another stellar tee-to-green week.

Morikawa's coming off a down year, one that ended with many wondering if the U.S. should have even put him on the Ryder Cup team. But a quick start to 2026 has him back inside the top five in the Official World Golf Ranking, and he'll be among the favorites at the Players Championship in three weeks.

Reed domination

Patrick Reed left LIV Golf but can't return to the PGA TOUR until the current season is over. In the meantime, Reed is asserting his dominance on the DP World Tour with two victories and a runner-up showing in four starts. He's climbed from 44th in the world to 17th, and he'll be one to track ahead of the Masters, a tournament he won in 2018. Finishing third at Augusta last year, Reed could be in some of his best form in a long time ahead of the 2026 edition. You won't see him at the Arnold Palmer Invitational or the Players, but he'll be firmly in the spotlight when the Masters rolls around if he keeps winning on the DP World Tour.

Gotterup's emergence

Chris Gotterup is the only multi-time winner on the PGA TOUR this season, claiming the Sony Open and WM Phoenix Open to assert himself into the conversation as one of the best young players in golf. His two victories also prove that outdueling McIlroy at the Scottish Open last year wasn't a fluke.

The 26-year-old has never played in the Masters and has competed in only one Players Championship, making this a huge season for him to establish himself on the game's biggest stages. Last year, Gotterup placed third at the Open Championship just a week after winning in Scotland, and he's continued to raise his profile with two impressive titles this year.

Quick hits

Justin Rose

Rose picked up a trophy at the Farmers Insurance Open, proving his days of winning are far from over. The Englishman lost in a playoff to McIlroy at last year's Masters and has come close at Augusta on several occasions. Even at 45 years old, you can't count Rose out of claiming his second career major.

Jacob Bridgeman

Winning a signature event at Riviera is no easy task, but doing so alongside McIlroy in the final pairing for your first PGA TOUR victory makes it that much more impressive. Bridgeman has been extremely steady this season and could be in the midst of a breakthrough, similar to Ben Griffin's last year, which earned him a spot on the American Ryder Cup team.

Xander Schauffele

After winning two majors in 2024, Schauffele had a quiet 2025 until he earned a victory in Japan to close his season. That winning form appears to have carried over into the new year, recording back-to-back top-20 results in signature events with some impressive ball-striking numbers. Schauffele may be on the verge of returning to the winner's circle, perhaps at TPC Sawgrass, where he's a two-time runner-up.

Justin Thomas

Thomas is still recovering from offseason back surgery, but he played in a TGL match on Feb. 23. Although he has yet to compete in a tournament, that could be coming soon as the PGA TOUR heads to Florida - his home state. Thomas will likely do everything in his power to get back for the Masters, so his progress over the next few weeks will be worth tracking.

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