Open Championship betting preview: Can Schauffele go back-to-back?

One of the greatest weeks on the golf calendar is here. Set your alarm clocks and brew some coffee, because the Open Championship is the only tournament worth watching before the sun rises.

The Claret Jug will be awarded at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland, which last hosted the 2019 Open. The world's top players will descend on this pristine piece of links-golf land for a week that should be full of wind and rain, setting the stage for a proper Open Championship test.

The course

• 7,381 yards, par 71
• The club was founded in 1888, and the championship course designed by Harry Colt opened in 1933
• Traditional links layout along the northern coastline of Northern Ireland
• Three par 5s, one is only 532 yards
• Three of the four par 3s are under 200 yards
• A pure tee-to-green test, especially in the wind

Past Open champions

2024: Xander Schauffele (-9) over Billy Horschel, Justin Rose
2023: Brian Harman (-13) over four players
2022: Cameron Smith (-20) over Cameron Young
2021: Collin Morikawa (-15) over Jordan Spieth
2020: Canceled
2019: Shane Lowry (-15) over Tommy Fleetwood
2018: Francesco Molinari (-8) over four players
2017: Jordan Spieth (-12) over Matt Kuchar
2016: Henrik Stenson (-20) over Phil Mickelson

The favorites

⛳️ Check out the Open Championship odds on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Scottie Scheffler is the +550 favorite on ESPN BET and theScore Bet, his longest odds in a major championship this year. Scheffler's history at the Open Championship is by far the worst of the four majors: He's played it four times, managing two top-10 finishes and two just outside of the top 20. The World No. 1 has yet to contend in an Open Championship, often struggling on the slower putting surfaces. He's lost an average of 3.2 strokes putting in his previous three Opens and lost 1.4 shots last week at the Scottish Open. Scheffler should play well, but if he doesn't putt at least field average, he won't win.

It's a homecoming major for Rory McIlroy, who grew up an hour south of Royal Portrush. The pressure was immense when he played the 2019 Open, and he missed the cut after a miserable opening round. He returns as the Masters champion and knows what an Open in his home country feels like. McIlroy should be far more prepared this time, especially after a runner-up showing in Scotland last week.

Following his runner-up LIV result last week in Spain, Jon Rahm said he's playing some of the best golf he's played in a while. The timing could not be more perfect as he returns to a course where he finished T11 in 2019. He's also recorded three top-10 results in his last four Open appearances. There's an argument to be made that Rahm should be priced much closer to Scheffler and McIlroy, so there could be some value backing the Spaniard.

Bryson DeChambeau and the Open Championship do not seem like a great match, and history bears that out. He has one top-10 showing in seven appearances and missed the cut three times.

The next tier

⛳️ Check out the Open Championship odds on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Picks

Bet Schauffele to win outright (+2500)

We're bypassing the favorites and landing on Schauffele for our first of two outright selections.

The defending champion is priced very reasonably compared to those around him on the oddsboard, and people seem to have forgotten that he won two of the past six majors contested. Yes, his recent results haven't been jaw-dropping, but he doesn't deserve to be priced alongside golfers who rarely win.

Schauffele is hitting the ball beautifully. He finished T12 at the U.S. Open and gained 7.4 strokes tee to green, then came T8 at the Scottish Open by gaining 9.9 shots tee to green. If he can get his putter to heat up slightly, he'll have a good shot at becoming the first player to defend the Claret Jug since Padraig Harrington in 2008.

Bet Hovland to win outright (+3000)

Hovland is another player who's striking the ball better than much of the field. He gained 14.9 strokes tee to green at the U.S. Open, 6.4 strokes tee to green last week in Scotland, and 5.5 shots tee to green through three rounds at the Travelers Championship before withdrawing with a neck injury.

The Norwegian is arguably the best player in the world without a major championship, but he's come close multiple times, including at The Open. He played in the final pairing with McIlroy at the 2022 edition at St. Andrews and placed 12th in 2021 and T13 in 2023. Hovland has all the necessary tools, especially since he'll often have the option to putt around the greens instead of having to chip.

With wind expected to factor into the tournament's outcome, it's smart to lean on a golfer who's hitting it as well as Hovland.

Bet Rahm (-145) over DeChambeau

Rahm could easily win this tournament, while DeChambeau isn't in the same form he was earlier in the season and isn't a good course fit for Royal Portrush.

Bet Patrick Reed (+110) over Corey Conners

Reed is a recent winner on LIV, came T10 last week in Spain, and finished T23 at the U.S. Open. He also came 10th at Royal Portrush in 2019. Meanwhile, Conners is coming back from a wrist injury that forced him to withdraw from the U.S. Open. He played the Scottish Open and finished T47 while losing 1.7 strokes on approach and gaining 3.7 on the greens. That statistical output isn't sustainable for Conners.

Bet Ryan Fox to finish top 40 (-110)

Fox is playing some of the best golf of his career with two PGA TOUR victories this season. He placed T16 in the 2019 Open and has missed only two Open cuts in eight appearances. The New Zealander has finished inside the top 40 in six of his last seven starts.

Bet Schauffele, Hovland, Hatton, Lowry, Henley, and Rose to make the cut (+472)

We'll group these six to make a make-the-cut parlay that pays nearly +500. We already outlined why we're bullish on Schauffele and Hovland, and there's plenty to like about the other four.

Hatton came T6 at the 2019 Open and is playing well in big events this year; Lowry won at Portrush in 2019; Henley is an ideal course fit and came second at the Travelers in his last start; and Rose came sixth at the Scottish Open and has had a ton of success at Open Championships in his career.

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