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Mexico Open betting: Will Finau continue dominance?

Hector Vivas / Getty Images Sport / Getty

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The PGA TOUR concluded its West Coast swing with Hideki Matsuyama taking down the Genesis Invitational. It now heads south for the Mexico Open before jumping to the East Coast to kick off a series of Florida events.

We won't beat around the bush - the field for the Mexico Open is weak. After multiple signature events in California, many top players are taking the week off. No one would blame you if you also want to take a week off from golf.

But for the die-hards out there, we have you covered.

The course

  • Vidanta Vallarta
  • Greg Norman design
  • 7,456 yards, par 71
  • Four par 4s over 495 yards

Past winners

2023: Tony Finau (-24) over Jon Rahm
2022: Jon Rahm (-17) over Tony Finau, two others

The favorites

Player Odds
Tony Finau +800
Nicolai Hojgaard +1400
Stephan Jaeger +2200
Taylor Pendrith +2200
Keith Mitchell +2200
Emiliano Grillo +2500
Thomas Detry +2500
Thorbjorn Olesen +2800

Tony Finau is the deserving favorite at +800, as he's clearly the best talent in the field with an impeccable record on this course. He's only lost to Jon Rahm in two starts in Mexico. Thankfully for Finau, Rahm is no longer around to worry about.

The remainder of the favorites are a collection of players who'd normally be priced around +8000 during regular TOUR weeks. Diving down this low to back them in a field where the talent gap isn't very wide doesn't seem like the optimal way to approach betting on this tournament.

The next tier

Player Odds
Erik van Rooyen +3000
Patrick Rodgers +3300
Davis Thompson +3300
Ryan Fox +3500
Jake Knapp +4000
Cameron Champ +4500
Maverick McNealy +4500
Ryo Hisatsune +4500
Sam Stevens +4500
Brandon Wu +5000
Mackenzie Hughes +5000
Mark Hubbard +5000
Doug Ghim +5000
Jhonattan Vegas +5000

As the betting numbers get longer, the names next to them become more appealing for a field of this strength. Is there much separating Stephen Jaeger and Jhonattan Vegas? Not at all. But Jaeger is +2200 compared to Vegas' +5000. It only makes sense to hunt for value further down the board.

We'll start with Jake Knapp at +4000. Since this course has proven to be a bomber's paradise, it only makes sense to target one of the longest players on TOUR. Knapp finished T3 at the Farmers Insurance Open - another venue that rewards elite drivers of the ball - and T28 in Phoenix.

Vegas is also worth a look. He ranks second behind Finau in the field in strokes gained: ball striking (off the tee plus approach) over the past 100 rounds. Vegas has never played this tournament, but it should fit his style of play perfectly.


Tony Finau: Top 10 (-105)

It's tough to stomach the +800 price on Finau, so we'll go the top-10 route at a reasonable -105.

Finau has played very well, especially tee to green, over the past three events. He finished T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open by gaining 8.3 strokes from tee to green. Finau placed T18 at Riviera last week.

Now, Finau gets to defend his title at a course he seems to love. His scoring average in eight rounds at Vidanta is a staggering 66. Expect him to be at - or near - the top of the leaderboard for the third straight year.

Jake Knapp: To win (+4000), top 20 (+210)

We'll bank on Knapp remaining in form as he heads south of the border to a course that should allow him to separate from the field due to his length. His T3 at Torrey Pines proved he could compete at a course that demanded elite driving, and now he's in a field with far less talent.

Vincent Norrmann: To win (+6000), top 20 (+280)

Vincent Norrmann has collected two wins in his past 15 starts but is in a rut. However, he gained strokes off the tee and struck the ball very well in his last start in Phoenix but lost 6.2 strokes on the green to miss the cut.

Given his track record of being a great driver of the ball, with a recent flash of strong iron play, backing Normann at +6000 presents value. He placed T18 in last year's Mexico Open. Some of his best starts on the Korn Ferry Tour also came south of the border.

Adrien Dumont De Chassart: To win (+15000), top 20 (+425)

We'll take one big swing on the upside of Adrien Dumont De Chassart. There's a chance he's a top-10 talent in this field, but his odds are suppressed because he's posted subpar results in his short time on TOUR.

However, the young Belgian gained four strokes with his driver at the Phoenix Open, a field loaded with some of the game's best drivers. The talent is there with Dumont De Chassart, it just hasn't translated to the PGA TOUR yet.

But the Mexico Open has a field that would compete on the Korn Ferry Tour. And Dumont De Chassart dominated that tour when he turned pro last year. He won in his first start as a professional and recorded another five consecutive top-10 results after his victory.

Jhonattan Vegas: Top 20 (+280)

Finally, we'll trust the strokes gained: ball-striking stats and back Vegas, who's dominating in this category compared to the field.

Vegas is a proven winner on the PGA TOUR, claiming victories on courses that reward distance. He should be able to bomb it all over and play aggressively, which has led to past success.

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