Amid all the Super Bowl Parties leading up to and through Super Bowl LVII, the PGA Tour is host to the biggest, down the road at TPC Scottsdale. Always the rowdiest stop on tour, the Phoenix Open hasn't added another level of stadia around the par-3 16th hole, but it marks the first-ever full-field "designated event" under the revised PGA schedule.
What does that mean? For the players - a $20 million prize pool. For the viewers - a loaded roster of the top players. Co-favorites Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy - the Chiefs and Eagles of the PGA Tour - lead a field the likes of which the hundreds of thousands of spectators have never seen before at the Stadium Course.
Unlike those who find themselves taking mid-day "naps" on the greenside hills, we're not going to over-indulge because this event is must-watch, even if we're flush with dividends from a trio of +300 golfers that grinded out top 20s at Pebble Beach last week.
Three draws (odds to win/top 20)
Three golfers more valuable than their odds suggest this week.
Justin Thomas (+2000 / +100)
Scottie Scheffler broke through last year for his first career win as part of a vicious run culminating in a green jacket, but Justin Thomas was second to only Xander Schauffele in strokes gained: tee-to-green. Thomas finished three shots back, almost all of which were lost in strokes gained: putting.
Thomas has a pair of top 3s amongst five straight top-20 finishes at TPC Scottsdale. While the big purse and quasi-mandatory nature of its elevated status has attracted all the Tour's top players, that doesn't mean everyone wants to deal with raucous crowds. Given that Thomas is a regular at this event, you know he thrives in the atmosphere.
Hideki Matsuyama (+3500 / +160)
Hideki Matsuyama hadn't done much in 2023 with a pair of mediocre results in Hawaii, but he got hot with the putter on the weekend at Torrey Pines, briefly getting into contention before finishing in the top 10. Normally, we wouldn't expect sustainable putting on different grass, but now Matsuyama goes to what might be his favorite course.
Matsuyama won Phoenix back-to-back in 2016 and 2017 amidst a run of seven top 20s in eight tournaments finished. He's shot in the 60s in 29 of 33 career rounds, and is worth backing at a good price for another top 20.
Keith Mitchell (+8000 / +280)
Keith Mitchell was fifth in strokes gained: tee-to-green at the 2022 Phoenix Open, finishing tied for 10th. He brings good form back to the Stadium Course having just scored his fourth top 25 in his last six events this season, and could cash a good top-20 payout again.
The scary fade
When you least expect it, you mega-slice a tee shot into the trees. We pick a golfer with high expectations who's worth betting to miss the cut at a big price.
Jason Day (+225 to miss cut)
Jason Day has played in this event just once since 2013, so it doesn't seem like he's a fan of it. He made his return to Phoenix in 2021 and promptly missed the cut. He's one of a handful of players playing because of the tournament's status, but his strong play this season has come at events he's more comfortable at.
Tony Finau (+400 to miss cut)
With this year's strong field, we'll add a second big name to miss the cut at an even bigger price. Tony Finau had a second-place finish at TPC Scottsdale in 2021. He's missed the cut all five other times he's played in the event since 2016. His opening-round 74 last year was his ninth round shooting 71 or worse, and now the competition gets harder.
The favorite club in the bag
Going into this betting season, we picked two golfers to bet to win each week - Max Homa and Tom Kim. The thinking is that our second-tier duo on the oddsboard will win more than once and be profitable on the assumption they play 20-to-25 events. It took one week for that to pay dividends, as Homa won at Torrey Pines at 20-1.
Are Max and Tom playing this week?
Of course! Homa's win didn't do too much damage to his odds for a loaded event, as he's the ninth choice, available at 25-1 to win something of a home game. Kim has had a couple weeks off and is right behind Homa at 28-1. Like Homa, Kim excelled at the 2022 President's Cup so he shouldn't be shook by the environment at TPC Scottsdale.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
