Our first round of golf betting went well last week, even if Joaquin Niemann ruined the fun for everyone else at RIV. The Chilean golfer was scarier than the signature trees lining the fairways at the Genesis Invitational as he took a big lead following the first round and remained rarely challenged for four days. For outright bettors - except those finding Niemann - there wasn't a drop of sweat on a cool L.A. weekend.
Leaving outrights for those in search of glory proved profitable for us, though. Two of our three players to back - Viktor Hovland (+120) and Max Homa (+200) - comfortably cashed their Top 20s. Plus, Sam Burns missing the cut (+250) and losing a matchup with Homa (+125) helped the ledger. Had Hideki Matsuyama been close to form, we really would have had something to celebrate.
Three to draw
Billy Horschel
Despite a signature section of the course - "The Bear Trap," and its proximity to the Sunshine State homes of many top Tour pros - the Honda Classic isn't a must-play stop on the jam-packed PGA schedule. If you're showing this week, you're doing so with motivation.
Billy Horschel has made 14 straight cuts and has a T-11 and T-6 finish in just two outings during the Tour's West Coast swing. He didn't play last week, and if you know anything about the Florida Gator, you know he only shows up to give full effort and intensity.
Horschel hasn't played the Honda since finishing T-16 in 2019, and he has a Top 5 at PGA National before that. A top 20 for Horschel pays +130, and he's worth backing against any off-form matchup pairing.
C.T. Pan
Further down the board, C.T. Pan is as boom-or-bust as there is. He rarely strings two good weekends together, so we'll see if he can this week. Pan found himself alone in ninth last week after staying under par in each round at Riviera.
The Olympic bronze medalist finished T-3 at the Honda Classic last year, so you might wonder why he's +260 for a top 20 here in a weak field. Looking at pretty much all of Pan's other results would explain that, though - he's struggled with consistency.
Nicolai Hojgaard
Speaking of booms and busts, Nicolai Hojgaard has passed his twin brother Rasmus on the Official World Golf Rankings thanks to his run over his last 11 DPWT tournaments: 1, T20, T14, MC, MC, T2, T4, MC, MC, 1, MC.
Nicolai is making his first North American PGA start, and while it's not exactly a "Hello, World" situation a la Tiger Woods in 1996, one of Europe's most intriguing talents is worth a follow this week - especially at a +280 price for a top 20.
Three to slice
Brooks Koepka
There aren't many legitimate choices for big fades this week. With a soft field, there's not an abundance of big names to choose from. However, Brooks Koepka is not known for bringing his A-game for a lesser-than tournament. What he is bringing this weekend is his brother Chase, which might be the only reason he's playing the event.
The younger Koepka is getting a sponsor's exemption at a course where the boys volunteered as youngsters. Brooks facing a potential weekend off while also helping his brother get into a rare PGA event might skew his desire to win. A +275 price for a missed cut is juicy, and a matchup against Niemann is a safe way to fade the half-hearted Koepka.
Ian Poulter
Poulter's been deep in the Middle East scene lately - in more ways than one - turning in mixed results in four tournaments from Dubai to Saudi Arabia. However, Poulter has missed the cut the last three times he's played in North America, and he also went home early from West Palm Beach in 2021. At +125, it's worth betting he'll have the weekend off again to plan his next career move after SGL plans fell apart last week.
Gary Woodland
Woodland will always have his U.S. Open trophy, but he's still searching for his game in 2022, missing the cut in two of three starts after also falling short a handful of times late last year. At +162, the OWGR's 142nd-ranked golfer is just as likely to miss the cut as he is to make it, especially against a field full of hungrier and lesser-known players that are in better form.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
