Genesis Invitational betting: Who to ride with at Riviera?

While the beer on the 16th green at the Waste Management Phoenix Open is still probably being squeegeed, the PGA TOUR is buttoning its shirt back up for one of its more prestigious events. As we look for players to back and fade this weekend, we'll contrast the two events when looking for value.

You can find a tournament preview and a list of player odds here.

Three to back

Hideki Matsuyama

As is his wont, Matsuyama registered a ho-hum T-8 finish last week while quietly meandering around TPC Scottsdale. It tells you everything that a top-10 finish is par for the course for Matsuyama, who's won two of his last five starts.

Riviera Country Club rewards big drivers, but you also have to know where your ball is if you find yourself in the rough. Few in the world exhibit more control than Matsuyama.

Although he missed the cut last year when he couldn't make enough birdies to offset a brief second-round struggle, Matsuyama finished fifth in 2020 and ninth in 2019. Playing the best golf of his career, the Masters champion is as good of a bet as the players listed above him, and he has a favorable matchup with Xander Schauffele.

Viktor Hovland

Speaking of playing at their peak, "Hovland SZN" hits the Riviera this week. Yes, we're willfully ignoring his missed cut amidst the chaos last weekend. As far as we know, the always-smiling young star was having the time of his life in the cauldron Saturday. He'd fit right in there, just as he has in the top five of the Official World Golf Rankings.

With three wins in his last six starts worldwide, many think this is the season Hovland joins Collin Morikawa atop the podium of golf's next generation. Slugging drives and pinpoint approaches are Hovland's thing, and he'll be in the mix Sunday while being offered at a similarly decent price as Matsuyama.

A matchup with the likes of Cameron Smith won't be easy, so I'd look for a top-20 bet on Hovland at +120 or better.

Max Homa

It's a lot to ask of Homa to replicate the greatest win of his career, but the Los Angeles native has found himself in the mix during the last two years at the Brentwood-area course, including a T-5 in 2020. Riviera will reward Homa when he drives it pure, so find a good matchup to back him and feel free to fire on +200 for a top 20.

Three to fade

Sam Burns

You can't mention Homa and his win at Riviera without bringing up Burns, especially since he can be widely found as a matchup with Homa. Burns seemed to have the Genesis won last year but caved late. He later got his first TOUR win, but he's missed a pair of cuts coming into this week. Burns isn't showing the same form he did last year when he was riding the confidence of a pair of top 20s at Torrey Pines and TPC Scottsdale.

Sahith Theegala

Much of the golf world, and the tens of thousands on the grounds of the Stadium Course last week, fell for the PGA TOUR rookie who flew up the Official World Golf Rankings from 318 to 165 while coming up just short of a storybook win. While we hope to see much more of Theegala in the future, getting back up after the most emotional weekend of his career is asking a lot. At +175 to miss the cut, there's reason to believe a tricky and vastly different course might be too much for Theegala this week.

Scottie Scheffler

Scheffler finally took home a trophy last Sunday after being a regular in contention during his brief career. On a course where it's easy to shoot 2-over after two rounds, I'm not against a bet on Scheffler to miss the cut at +333. However, you can find him matched up against Matsuyama, which is a much safer way to fade him in a letdown spot.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.