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While "Don't overreact to the results of one week" is an axiom more frequently served up in the NFL, you can also apply it to the NHL.

Saturday's Maple Leafs-Penguins matchup proved to be a good example. The visiting Leafs were +115 on the moneyline despite having an average price of -115 before a 5-2 win in Pittsburgh on Nov. 15. (Toronto had also suffered a home loss to the Penguins on Nov. 11.) That's an implied win probability drop of 7% over 11 days despite the game being played in the same venue.

The Leafs did start Erik Kallgren instead of Matt Murray on Saturday, and they didn't have Morgan Rielly. But Rielly means roughly 3% to the Leafs' game-to-game win probability, and the difference between Kallgren and Murray is even less than that. So, how did we get to 7%?

The Penguins had won two of 11 contests amidst the first two meetings with the Leafs, but they'd won five straight from Nov. 17-25. They averaged an even-strength Expected Goal Share (XG%) of 56% over their opponents during that stretch. But that didn't bear fruit Saturday, as Pittsburgh had just 44.26% of the five-on-five XG% in a 4-1 loss.

Teams will always revert to their mean. Getting Toronto at better than +110 was a bet that had to be made in order to take advantage of the value created by the market's perception.

The recipe

We started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's still our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we'll adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which various outliers like special teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events - such as three-on-three overtime and the shootout - can skew.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a betable range at some point between market open and puck drop.

DATE	GAME	TRUE ML	PRICE TO BET
Nov. 28	TOR@DET	-130/+130	TOR -124/DET +153
	VGK@CBJ	-159/+159	VGK -153/CBJ +189
	NJD@NYR	+105/-105	NJD +116/NYR +106
	TBL@BUF	-139/+139	TBL -133/BUF +164
	DAL@STL	+113/-113	DAL +133/STL -108
	FLA@EDM	+115/-115	FLA +135/EDM -110
Nov. 29	TBL@BOS	+143/-143	TBL +169/BOS -137
	SJS@MTL	+105/-105	SJS +116/MTL +105
	CAR@PIT	+107/-107	CAR +118/PIT +103
	NYI@PHI	-116/+116	NYI -111/PHI +136
	COL@WPG	-109/+109	COL -105/WPG +128
	ANA@NSH	+181/-181	ANA +217/NSH -174
	FLA@CGY	+125/-125	FLA +147/CGY -120
	WSH@VAN	+117/-117	WSH +138/VAN -113
	SEA@LAK	+139/-139	SEA +164/LAK -133
Nov. 30	NYR@OTT	-109/+109	NYR +102/OTT +120
	SJS@TOR	+264/-264	SJS +326/TOR -251
	BUF@DET	+124/-124	BUF +146/DET -119
	EDM@CHI	-169/+169	EDM -162/CHI +201
Dec. 1	TBL@PHI	-159/+159	TBL -153/PHI +189
	COL@BUF	-128/+128	COL -123/BUF +150
	VGK@PIT	+117/-117	VGK +138/PIT -112
	NSH@NJD	+146/-146	NSH +173/NJD -140
	EDM@MIN	+142/-142	EDM +168/MIN -136
	CAR@STL	-111/+111	CAR +100/STL +123
	ANA@DAL	+176/-176	ANA +211/DAL -169
	MTL@CGY	+224/-224	MTL +272/CGY -213
	WSH@SEA	+113/-113	WSH +133/SEA -109
	FLA@VAN	-124/+124	FLA -119/VAN +146
	ARI@LAK	+259/-259	ARI +320/LAK -247
Dec. 2	OTT@NYR	+150/-150	OTT +178/NYR -144
	NSH@NYI	+129/-129	NSH +152/NYI -123
	CBJ@WPG	+174/-174	CBJ +207/WPG -166
Dec. 3	ANA@MIN	+198/-198	ANA +238/MIN -189
	VGK@DET	-119/+119	VGK -115/DET +141
	STL@PIT	+140/-140	STL +165/PIT -134
	TOR@TBL	+119/-119	TOR +140/TBL -114
	COL@BOS	+127/-127	COL +150/BOS -122
	SJS@OTT	+146/-146	SJS +173/OTT -140
	NJD@PHI	-162/+162	NJD -155/PHI +193
	MTL@EDM	+212/-212	MTL +256/EDM -202
	CHI@NYR	+213/-213	CHI +257/NYR -203
	FLA@SEA	-129/+129	FLA -123/SEA +152
	ARI@VAN	+222/-222	ARI +270/VAN -212
	WSH@CGY	+149/-149	WSH +177/CGY -143
	CAR@LAK	-101/+101	CAR +110/LAK +111
Dec. 4	MIN@DAL	+106/-106	MIN +117/DAL +105
	ANA@WPG	+196/-196	ANA +236/WPG -188
	DET@CBJ	+104/-104	DET +122/CBJ +100
	SJS@BUF	+154/-154	SJS +183/BUF -148
	CHI@NYI	+241/-241	CHI +295/NYI -230

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

4c:T2097,

While "Don't overreact to the results of one week" is an axiom more frequently served up in the NFL, you can also apply it to the NHL.

Teams will always revert to their mean. Getting Toronto at better than +110 was a bet that had to be made in order to take advantage of the value created by the market's perception.

The recipe

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

DATE	GAME	TRUE ML	PRICE TO BET
Nov. 28	TOR@DET	-130/+130	TOR -124/DET +153
	VGK@CBJ	-159/+159	VGK -153/CBJ +189
	NJD@NYR	+105/-105	NJD +116/NYR +106
	TBL@BUF	-139/+139	TBL -133/BUF +164
	DAL@STL	+113/-113	DAL +133/STL -108
	FLA@EDM	+115/-115	FLA +135/EDM -110
Nov. 29	TBL@BOS	+143/-143	TBL +169/BOS -137
	SJS@MTL	+105/-105	SJS +116/MTL +105
	CAR@PIT	+107/-107	CAR +118/PIT +103
	NYI@PHI	-116/+116	NYI -111/PHI +136
	COL@WPG	-109/+109	COL -105/WPG +128
	ANA@NSH	+181/-181	ANA +217/NSH -174
	FLA@CGY	+125/-125	FLA +147/CGY -120
	WSH@VAN	+117/-117	WSH +138/VAN -113
	SEA@LAK	+139/-139	SEA +164/LAK -133
Nov. 30	NYR@OTT	-109/+109	NYR +102/OTT +120
	SJS@TOR	+264/-264	SJS +326/TOR -251
	BUF@DET	+124/-124	BUF +146/DET -119
	EDM@CHI	-169/+169	EDM -162/CHI +201
Dec. 1	TBL@PHI	-159/+159	TBL -153/PHI +189
	COL@BUF	-128/+128	COL -123/BUF +150
	VGK@PIT	+117/-117	VGK +138/PIT -112
	NSH@NJD	+146/-146	NSH +173/NJD -140
	EDM@MIN	+142/-142	EDM +168/MIN -136
	CAR@STL	-111/+111	CAR +100/STL +123
	ANA@DAL	+176/-176	ANA +211/DAL -169
	MTL@CGY	+224/-224	MTL +272/CGY -213
	WSH@SEA	+113/-113	WSH +133/SEA -109
	FLA@VAN	-124/+124	FLA -119/VAN +146
	ARI@LAK	+259/-259	ARI +320/LAK -247
Dec. 2	OTT@NYR	+150/-150	OTT +178/NYR -144
	NSH@NYI	+129/-129	NSH +152/NYI -123
	CBJ@WPG	+174/-174	CBJ +207/WPG -166
Dec. 3	ANA@MIN	+198/-198	ANA +238/MIN -189
	VGK@DET	-119/+119	VGK -115/DET +141
	STL@PIT	+140/-140	STL +165/PIT -134
	TOR@TBL	+119/-119	TOR +140/TBL -114
	COL@BOS	+127/-127	COL +150/BOS -122
	SJS@OTT	+146/-146	SJS +173/OTT -140
	NJD@PHI	-162/+162	NJD -155/PHI +193
	MTL@EDM	+212/-212	MTL +256/EDM -202
	CHI@NYR	+213/-213	CHI +257/NYR -203
	FLA@SEA	-129/+129	FLA -123/SEA +152
	ARI@VAN	+222/-222	ARI +270/VAN -212
	WSH@CGY	+149/-149	WSH +177/CGY -143
	CAR@LAK	-101/+101	CAR +110/LAK +111
Dec. 4	MIN@DAL	+106/-106	MIN +117/DAL +105
	ANA@WPG	+196/-196	ANA +236/WPG -188
	DET@CBJ	+104/-104	DET +122/CBJ +100
	SJS@BUF	+154/-154	SJS +183/BUF -148
	CHI@NYI	+241/-241	CHI +295/NYI -230

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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Erik Kallgren

Erik Kallgren

NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game

Maple Leafs lose another goalie as Samsonov exits vs. Bruins

Maple Leafs' Murray out at least 4 weeks with adductor injury

Maple Leafs' Kallgren to make 1st NHL start vs. Stars