Through years of watching with a discerning eye, I've come to believe it's difficult to win hockey games without scoring goals.
This is fast becoming a problem for the New York Rangers, and if they don't figure out a solution fast, they could find themselves in a whole heap of not-the-third-round.
The reasons they aren't scoring appear, on the surface, pretty plain.
Rick Nash is below his career postseason shooting percentage - which, for the record, sits at a screaming hot 3.6 percent.
Mats Zuccarello, who can be an offensive menace, isn't playing, so that's not great.
Martin St. Louis is, well, what's the phrase here ... "old." He's starting to slow down a bit, and with the pace picking up in the playoffs, he's not finding himself getting the quality looks he's been able to generate in the past.
Then there's the hodgepodge of other simple reasons: Braden Holtby is one of the league's best goaltenders, and he's on his game. Top to bottom, the Capitals' D-corps is pretty high quality. The Caps are huge. The Caps are well-coached.
Those annoying things.
With all that, the Rangers still haven't been heavily outplayed - as partially evidenced by the shot clock after all three games, which has seen them on the right side of the ledger each time.
But the goals, man. The goals.
If you're Alain Vigneault looking at your roster and considering ways to deliver more biscuits to the back of the basket, here's a basic summary of your options:
Bank on luck by banging on the cliches: get pucks to the net, get traffic, hunt rebounds
This option is only "luck" insofar as you can't guarantee the outcome. It's not luck to take the hacks and whacks that come with screening the goalie, nor is it luck to fire more shots, nor is it luck to outmuscle or outsmart an opponent to get to a rebound.
But it is luck in that you may need the odd seeing-eye-puck here and there, or at least the odd bounce, to end up with a goal.
This is the default option for most coaches, but not all coaches have the skill the Rangers have, which means they aren't as familiar with focusing on these things as a primary means of scoring.
Shuffle the lines
Speaking of "default" ...
If you're Alain Vigneault, you have to consider ways to get your talent away from the Capitals' shutdown D-pair starring Brooks Orpik.
I'm talking specifically about Nash here.
For my money, Nash is one of the few players who can create on his own, totally devoid of help. As I wrote in playoffs last season, I consider him a great player, but not a great complementary player. And here we are again in the postseason with Nash getting shut down - his shot totals remain high, but his average shot distance has climbed substantially - and I'm back campaigning for Vigneault to put him on a line island (as in, don't play him with your other offensive talents).
If they want to match Nash, fine - free up your other skill guys from the shutdown pair. If they want to leave him be, you'll like the results.
Take the leash off the D
One of the major perks of having a quality defensive corps is that they're better at covering for each other's mistakes.
The Rangers have a high quality group of defenders, including a number with real skill a la Keith Yandle, Dan Boyle, and Ryan McDonagh. Yet their unit has combined for only two goals through eight games, which is partially why the Rangers sit 15th out of 16 playoff teams this postseason in goals per game.
Defense is obviously a priority, but when you have the talent to cover for one another and one of the game's best goalies - and your offense has been hurting - it might be time to lengthen (or fully unhook) the leash for your defense to get up into the play.
The Rangers have proven adept at keeping the puck out of their own net, but they're now two losses from a second-round playoff exit with a team that has a legit chance at the Stanley Cup.
The focus is getting clearer for them: they either find a way, some way, any way to score a few goals, or the Capitals will see their first Eastern Conference Final since 1998.
Mr. Vigneault, the decision is yours.