Can juggernaut Avalanche break Presidents' Trophy curse?

DENVER - Nathan MacKinnon is the NHL's ultimate alpha male.

He overwhelms the opposition nightly, chewing up the ice with a violent skating stride and executing on advanced offensive sequences. Off the ice, he holds himself and his Colorado Avalanche teammates to mile-high standards.

The fierce competitor isn't easily impressed. But he can be reflective.

Sitting in his dressing room stall at Ball Arena following a morning skate last week, MacKinnon was asked about the Avalanche brain trust meticulously reshaping the roster in the four years since the team's 2022 Stanley Cup triumph.

"I'm thankful we have an aggressive front office," MacKinnon told theScore. "This thing isn't going to last forever. There's still no guarantee we'll win (a second Cup). But at least we're trying. It's up to us, as players, to perform. Last year, we had the team to do it. The two years before that, we didn't."

MacKinnon, who a few hours later would go on to score his 50th goal in a Hart Trophy-caliber season, is at the peak of his powers. Widely considered the second-best player in the world, he's recorded 126 points in 77 games.

He's also completely right. What the Avs have built won't last forever.

MacKinnon's 30 years old and in his 13th season. There isn't a single needle-moving player under 27 on the roster, and the prospect pipeline is dry. Holding off Father Time is a challenge for every pro sports team. It's even harder in a 32-team league in which every transaction is inextricably linked to the hard salary cap.

Colorado, which is 52-16-10 with four games remaining, clinched the Presidents' Trophy on Thursday. Remarkably, the NHL's regular-season champion has failed to claim the Cup in each of the past 12 seasons. Put another way, that makes zero titles for the No. 1 seed since the league introduced a division-based playoff format.

Can the Avalanche break the so-called Presidents' Trophy curse?

Retooling a juggernaut

Only two NHL teams boast a pair of megastars: the Oilers, led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and the Avs. Colorado owns the league's highest points percentage since franchise cornerstone Cale Makar arrived in 2019-20, recording 119, 109, 107, 102, and 114 points (and counting) in its full seasons.

Captain Gabriel Landeskog, top center MacKinnon, and top defenseman Makar are the only players on the active roster whom the Avs drafted.

"We rely on our whole team to provide our leadership and be able to contribute and help guys around them, (but) those three are the driving forces," Avs head coach Jared Bednar said of the foundational pieces.

Bednar, another integral piece of the leadership group, explained that MacKinnon is the emotional leader who "makes sure that everyone's accountable and fully invested in what we're trying to do." Makar, meanwhile, is a "really approachable guy" who's "always very in tune with our team game." And Landeskog is an extension of the coaching staff, "the godfather of the group."

"If we need to get cranked up a little bit, (Landeskog will) help us do that with Nate," Bednar added. "If we need to calm down a little bit or focus on something that we're not doing well, he's able to pick that out as well. It's always very good information delivered in the right way at the right time."

The Avs' long-term core once included a fourth member in Mikko Rantanen. However, a stunning January 2025 trade sent the premier power forward to Carolina in exchange for four pieces, most notably speedy winger Martin Necas, who's blossomed into MacKinnon's highly productive sidekick.

Colorado's management group, led by president Joe Sakic and general manager Chris MacFarland, has acquired 15 of the team's 23 players via trade. Nine of them - or 39% of the roster - arrived within the past 17 months.

The Avs are far from the first Cup contender to turn over a large chunk of its roster midstream. What stands out about their transaction sheet, in particular, is the sheer number of value bets that have panned out over a short period. The majority of acquired pieces, including free-agent signings such as depth defenseman Brent Burns and depth winger Parker Kelly, have proven to be better fits stylistically or financially than those they replaced, or offer comparable value at a younger age. Virtually every move Colorado's made has provided an upgrade in some fashion - big or small.

The talent level both between the pipes (Wedgewood, Blackwood) and down the middle (MacKinnon, Nelson, Roy, Drury) has arguably never been higher during the MacKinnon-Makar era. Is this the deepest Avs squad since 2022?

"I think so," said Landeskog, who's been an Av since 2011. "All that really does is look good on paper. It gives you flexibility to move things around and try different things. But, at the end of the day, what makes this team unique is, (even) with all the skill we've got, guys aren't afraid of work. Our defensive numbers show that. We're committed to playing team defense, and then we know we're going to create scoring chances and our skill will take over at that point."

Teams with long-tenured coaches and distinct playing styles - think Tampa Bay and Carolina - tend to have an easier time backfilling a 20-man lineup.

Bednar wants the Avs, the NHL's fastest and best rush team, to attack quickly and with numbers, which means every defenseman must be a strong skater. Sam Malinski, an undrafted NCAA free agent signed out of Cornell in March 2023, is a rare 5-foot-11 defenseman who's logging 17:25 a night, partly because his skill set aligns with the Avs' brand of hockey.

Like the Lightning and Hurricanes, the Avs have made a habit of pouncing on opportunities to re-sign players who are excelling in their system. Fourth-line right-winger Logan O'Connor is in Year 1 of a six-year deal, while Malinski and Kelly both have reasonable four-year extensions kicking in next season.

"I remember being in Ottawa, playing for the Senators, and you come in to play the Avs, and you're just surviving the first 20 minutes of the game," said Kelly, who's bagged a career-high 20 goals this season. "You come in for intermission, and you're thinking, 'OK, we got through it!' The second period comes, and they break you down. Next thing you know, it's 4-0 after two."

Colorado has honed its risk-reward profile over the years. The older and newer Bednar teams look very similar systematically, but the later versions have been smarter with the puck. A primary component of the team-wide shift is the development of a potent in-zone attack to complement the fast-break game. This year's group forechecks and cycles more effectively, and it's more inclined to unleash the odd long-distance shot for a netfront deflection or rebound.

Colorado is a buzzsaw offensively, ranking first in expected goals and actual goals. The Avs are an elite defensive squad, too, allowing the sixth-fewest expected goals and fewest actual goals. The impact: a near-perfect 30-0-4 record when leading after one period and a perfect 40-0-0 when up after two.

MacFarland brought in two athletic goalies early last season. This year, Bednar has been running a rough 50/50 rotation, though Wedgewood's started 41 times and Blackwood's started 34 due to an early-season injury.

Wedgewood's fourth in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, while Blackwood ranks 27th. Together, they cost $6.75 million against the cap.

"They're good friends, and they get along great. They push each other," Bednar said of the healthy competition between the veteran netminders.

Added MacKinnon: "Back in the day, there were such bad teams that you could chuck your second guy in and, if you're good team, it didn't really matter. The league's pretty tight now. You see it with the playoff races."

Questions, challenges ahead

Again, MacKinnon is correct in his analysis.

The Kings, Predators, Jets, and Sharks continue to battle for the second wild card in the Western Conference and, in turn, a date with the Avs. Since the award's inception in 1985-86, the Presidents' Trophy winner has captured the Cup eight times. The top team has also fallen in the opening round of the postseason eight times.

Colorado isn't a typical Presidents' Trophy winner. It's spent 143 consecutive gamedays atop the standings - the third-longest streak in history - thanks to a lopsided 31-3-7 first half and solid (yet incomplete) 21-13-3 second half.

There are four relatively minor questions swirling around the team.

1. Did the Avs peak too early?
2. Has the power play, which was puzzlingly poor for most of the season but ranks 11th since the Olympic break, been fixed by Kadri's arrival?
3. Will Kadri and Makar, both currently listed as day-to-day, be at full strength for the postseason or otherwise limited by upper-body injuries?
4. Who will be tapped as the playoff starter?

On the fourth topic, Bednar hasn't ruled out a goalie rotation in the playoffs. "I'm not going to (default to) conventional wisdom where it's got to be one guy," he said last week. "That's not necessarily my plan."

The Avs have made the playoffs in nine straight seasons. Curiously, the 2022 Cup run was the only time that the club advanced to the conference final.

It won't be easy to reverse the trend. If Colorado gets past the wild-card team, Minnesota or Dallas awaits in Round 2. The Central Division features three legitimate Cup contenders, but only one can advance to the West final.

"I don't think there's going to be a tougher path to where we want to go this year than the Western Conference (side of the bracket)," Makar said. "It's obviously tough in the East, too, but coming out of the Central is going to be really challenging."

The Avs lost to the Stars in Round 2 last season. Rantanen registered an outrageous 11 points in the final three contests, including a clutch hat trick in Game 7. It was an epic performance for an NHL star facing his former team.

"The playoffs are a different animal. The margins are so narrow," MacFarland told reporters in March after acquiring four players through midseason trades. "Yes, of course, we think we have a team that can do damage, but so many things have to go right. We're trying to give our group (reinforcements) because they deserve it. If we can make them incrementally better on trade-deadline day, that's the goal."

Colorado is one of the NHL's most thoughtful and data-friendly franchises. It hosted the league's first official hockey analytics conference at the end of March. About 90 people working in data roles across 31 teams attended the event in Denver. Bednar appeared on a live podcast recording, and MacFarland sat on a panel with fellow Denver sports executives.

The GM quoted legendary NFL coach Bill Walsh during a discussion titled, "Leveraging Data & Technology in Decision-Making Across Sports."

"The score will take care of itself if we do the right things consistently enough," MacFarland said.

John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter/X (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).