We've hit on players, coaches, and teams as a whole to have high-end (or, in some cases, low-end) results this season. With a portfolio of high-payout results, we now need some safer wagers to balance things out. Those come in the form of evenly-priced win totals. Instead of hoping to cash one or two big futures market payouts, we'll hope to win more than we lose on teams that might not have a long-shot bet that makes sense.
NFL win total odds
| TEAM | TOTAL | OVER/UNDER |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 11.5 | -135/+115 |
| Eagles | 11.5 | +100/-120 |
| 49ers | 11.5 | +115/-135 |
| Bengals | 11.5 | +125/-165 |
| Bills | 10.5 | -145/+125 |
| Jaguars | 10.5 | +140/-165 |
| Ravens | 9.5 | -175/+150 |
| Cowboys | 9.5 | -165/+140 |
| Jets | 9.5 | -125/+105 |
| Chargers | 9.5 | -125/+100 |
| Lions | 9.5 | -125/+100 |
| Dolphins | 9.5 | +100/-120 |
| Saints | 9.5 | +105/-125 |
| Browns | 9.5 | +110/-130 |
| Steelers | 8.5 | -145/+125 |
| Seahawks | 8.5 | -145/+125 |
| Falcons | 8.5 | -130/+110 |
| Vikings | 8.5 | -125/+105 |
| Broncos | 8.5 | -105/-115 |
| Titans | 7.5 | -125/+105 |
| Bears | 7.5 | -125/+105 |
| Packers | 7.5 | -120/+100 |
| Panthers | 7.5 | -110/-110 |
| Giants | 7.5 | +100/-120 |
| Patriots | 7.5 | +120/-140 |
| Colts | 6.5 | -115/-105 |
| Rams | 6.5 | -105/-115 |
| Commanders | 6.5 | +110/-130 |
| Raiders | 6.5 | +110/-130 |
| Buccaneers | 6.5 | +120/-140 |
| Texans | 5.5 | -165/+140 |
| Cardinals | 4.5 | +150/-175 |
Nineteen of the NFL's 32 teams are lined in the meaty part of the curve at 7.5 to 9.5 wins. It just goes to show the razor-thin line between a team like the Ravens, who - based on win totals alone - could be considered the seventh-ranked team in the NFL, and the Patriots, who could be ranked 25th.
With just a couple of exceptions, we'll play some win totals toward the middle on the expectation that mediocre teams are more likely to gravitate to an 8-9 record and that it's hard to win games in the NFL.
Best bets
49ers under 11.5 wins (-135)
Go hunting for a sportsbook with the 49ers lined at 11.5 wins at -150 or better on the under. San Francisco is by no means mediocre, but its road schedule is loaded with teams that are underrated, if not dangerous. Being high on the Steelers in markets like Coach of the Year and the last undefeated team means we're leaning pretty hard toward Pittsburgh in Week 1. Throw in games at Jacksonville, Cleveland, Philadelphia, and Washington, and the 49ers, who are not as deep on defense and the offensive line as in years past, could slip up in games the market gave them a good chance to win when this win total was set months ago.
Bills under 10.5 wins (+125)
A 10-7 record is a good season for most, but it would be a disappointing campaign in Buffalo, so we're getting a plus price on the Bills' under in a loaded AFC East. The Bills' pass rush was non-existent after Von Miller tore his ACL last season, and he's already set to miss the first four games of this year. Completing the defense is a lot to ask of a 34-year-old, especially with an aging secondary that's seen its share of injuries the last couple of years. The schedule is loaded, particularly on the road, which might provide the rare opportunity to get points with Buffalo, but makes +125 on this under worth a bet.
Vikings under 8.5 wins (+105)
We haven't discussed the Vikings much because there have been more positive things to say about the Lions, Packers, and Bears in other markets. But the one main way we can fade Minnesota - returning a terrible defense and a potentially creaky, lame-duck quarterback - is by betting that it finishes under .500 this season.
Titans over 7.5 wins (-125)
We like the Titans to make the playoffs, and we're willing to take a taste of them toppling the Jaguars to win the AFC South. If the conference is too rough, and the Jaguars end up building on their finish to last season, we can at least save some face by winning back some capital on Mike Vrabel to get back over .500 for the season.
Bears under 7.5 wins (+105)
The plays are spectacular, and Justin Fields' numbers might be worthy of an Offensive Player of the Year award. However, both things were true last year, and the Bears didn't win any of the games that those plays occurred in. Not enough was done to build a winner just yet, and the win total market asks the Bears to flirt with .500. Not this year.
Panthers under 7.5 wins (-110)
Thanks to their big draft pick swap, the Panthers have tied themselves historically to the Bears, and this year, they'll join them as fades in our betting portfolio. Unlike Chicago, Carolina had to give up the capital to get Bryce Young, and the on-field price the Panthers will pay is that they won't get back to seven wins this season.
Patriots over 7.5 wins (+120)
The Patriots will be low-variance game-to-game, but if they can function on offense, they might be high-variance in how many games they win. That said, their defense should be good enough to raise their floor higher than this win total suggests.
Rams under 6.5 wins (-115)
The Rams might get two freebies against the Cardinals, but they still need to beat five other teams to crawl over this total. With just three above-average players, two of whom have contemplated retirement, I'll bet that the Rams are far worse than most are willing to admit.
Commanders over 6.5 wins (+110)
Quick, who's better: the Giants or the Commanders? We might have been one debatable penalty call away from Washington being the surprise playoff team last year. Of course, it would've helped the Commanders if they had a real quarterback. They might have one this year, and - at 6.5 - they're not being asked to come as close to the playoffs as they were last year.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
