You're going to make a bet on a team to win the Super Bowl, and said team might even make it to Las Vegas in February. Then, for two weeks, you won't have a clue what to do.
Betting isn't just about picking a team and keeping your fingers crossed. You're always going to be wondering if you should try to middle, hedge, or pull the dreaded cash-out.
I'll tell you what to do now. Flip on over to the conference champion odds and just bet your team(s) there. The payout won't be the same, but once we get to Super Bowl week, you'll have wished you had conference championship winnings in your pocket to use for the prop menu in the big game.
Psychologically, there's less temptation to make a negative expected value play before conference championships. So instead of taking a shot at the Super Bowl, let's grab a pair of teams from each conference.
AFC champion odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Chiefs | +350 |
| Bills | +450 |
| Bengals | +500 |
| Ravens | +900 |
| Jets | +1000 |
| Dolphins | +1200 |
| Jaguars | +1300 |
| Chargers | +1300 |
| Browns | +1600 |
| Broncos | +2500 |
| Steelers | +3000 |
| Patriots | +4000 |
| Colts | +5000 |
| Raiders | +5000 |
| Titans | +5000 |
| Texans | +10000 |
Ravens (+900)
The Ravens aren't priced like the Bengals, Bills, and Chiefs because they haven't had the same recent playoff success. Why is that? It's simple - their former MVP quarterback has been unavailable for the latter half of the last two seasons. This season, Baltimore is certainly better equipped to keep Lamar Jackson in the lineup. There's also no guarantee Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes will stay healthy all year.
After playing in just seven games in 2020 and 2021 combined, left tackle Ronnie Stanley started his 2022 season in Week 5 and only played a few games with Jackson. Meanwhile, center Tyler Linderbaum received a good PFF grade in his rookie year. Having those two positions locked down is critical. For any offensive off-days, second-year defensive coordinator Mike McDonald has had a full offseason to build a scheme around tackling machine Roquan Smith, and the team is deep enough to withstand early-season injuries.
When we get to the playoffs, the Ravens are capable of winning on the road if need be, and who's more reliable in a game-winning situation than Justin Tucker?
Dolphins (+1200)
You could make the case for the similarly priced Chargers here, especially since they're favored in a Week 1 tilt, but with both teams likely back in the playoffs, I'll trust the Dolphins to win those do-or-die games. Miami has more competition, but winning the AFC East might require a good enough record to get the bye for being the No. 1 seed, while the Chargers' Kansas City-sized hill is harder to climb.
The Dolphins' high-octane offense can fuel a great regular season, and the team also has the built-in addition of a high-level cornerback when Jalen Ramsey returns from injury late in the year. We have less scar tissue in trusting Mike McDaniel over Brandon Staley in the playoffs, so that's the tiebreaker here.
NFC champion odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Eagles | +250 |
| 49ers | +400 |
| Cowboys | +600 |
| Lions | +1000 |
| Seahawks | +1100 |
| Saints | +1300 |
| Vikings | +1600 |
| Falcons | +2500 |
| Bears | +3000 |
| Packers | +3000 |
| Giants | +3000 |
| Panthers | +3500 |
| Rams | +4000 |
| Buccaneers | +5000 |
| Commanders | +5000 |
| Cardinals | +10000 |
Cowboys (+600)
We're going down a bit of a different route in the NFC with one favorite and one long shot. Though the Chargers can be excited about Kellen Moore taking over offensive play design and play-calling, that doesn't mean his old team, the Cowboys, will completely fall apart.
We've discussed Dallas' offensive potential with a healthy Dak Prescott in breaking down a few betting markets, but Dan Quinn's defense shouldn't be overlooked, as it was seventh in yards per play allowed, third in sack percentage and fourth in turnover margin. While the Cowboys' playoff run ended somewhat sadly, bringing the 49ers to the wire is a sign of good things to come.
Packers (+3000)
At 30-1, just get yourself a home playoff game and we'll go from there. That's all we want out of a long shot, and we'd be happy to take our chances with a first-round matchup with an NFC wild-card team. If the Packers can win the NFC North with a better record than the NFC South winner, they could get a home playoff game against someone other than a deadly 5-seed like the Eagles or Cowboys.
Of all the quarterbacks who aren't stars yet, former first-round pick Jordan Love has as good a skill set as any to jump into that conversation, and there's enough talent on defense to support any stumbles the offense has.
While we're not hedgers by nature, having a 30-1 ticket in the NFC championship would provide plenty of room to maneuver. If that matchup is with Dallas, we can sit back and enjoy a profitable game regardless of the outcome.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
