Patrick Mahomes led the NFL in passing by more than 500 yards last year and had six more touchdowns than second-place Joe Burrow. Mahomes' average of 308.8 yards per game amounts to a game and a half's worth ahead of his nearest competitor. But Kansas City's quarterback wasn't the favorite to lead the league as he was +900 - the third choice. That's not the case heading into this season.
Odds to lead NFL in passing
| PLAYER | YARDS | TOUCHDOWNS |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +260 | +225 |
| Justin Herbert | +500 | +1100 |
| Joe Burrow | +800 | +450 |
| Josh Allen | +850 | +500 |
| Kirk Cousins | +1000 | +3000 |
| Dak Prescott | +1500 | +1800 |
| Jared Goff | +1800 | +4000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +1800 | +1800 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +2000 | +700 |
| Matthew Stafford | +2000 | +4000 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +2000 | +3000 |
| Deshaun Watson | +2500 | +4000 |
| Jalen Hurts | +2500 | +6000 |
| Russell Wilson | +2500 | +2500 |
| Geno Smith | +3000 | +3500 |
| Derek Carr | +3500 | +6000 |
| Lamar Jackson | +3500 | +3000 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +4000 | +3500 |
| Jordan Love | +5000 | +7500 |
| Kenny Pickett | +5000 | +10000 |
Odds available on theScore Bet, players not listed above are at 60-1 or longer
The projections were otherwise pretty accurate last season: Justin Herbert was the favorite and Tom Brady the second choice. They finished second and third, respectively. That goes to show that this market requires the winner to be consistent throughout the 17-game season and doesn't usually lend itself to a long shot winner. For example, Kenny Pickett can have a handful of 300-yard games but won't average that for a full season.
Betting on Mahomes at +260 seems fair at first glance. However, last year was the first time he's led the league in yardage. Even during his epic 5,097-yard season in 2018, Ben Roethlisberger edged him by 32. Mahomes missed three games in 2019 and then lost the passing yards title in 2020 because he sat out a meaningless Week 17 game.
Basically, Mahomes is going to get beat by injury, Week 18 rest or another quarterback making a run at 5,000 yards - but probably a combination of the three.
The AFC is competitive, so we can't assume the Chiefs will be the top seed and sit Mahomes in Week 18. And, of course, we can't predict injury. All we can do is look at which quarterback might have a massive statistical season - like Roethlisberger, Jameis Winston in 2019, Deshaun Watson in 2020, and Brady's career-high 5,316 yards in 2021.
Best bets
Dak Prescott (+1500) to lead the NFL in passing yards
Dak Prescott (+1800) to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns
In 2019, Dak Prescott threw for 4,902 yards, which would have led the league if it weren't for Winston's outlier season. In two of his next three seasons, he missed significant time with injury but averaged 278 yards per game in the year he was healthy.
The big change this year is that the Cowboys won't use 230+ offensive plays to hand the ball to Ezekiel Elliott. Some of those carries will go to Tony Pollard, but he ran the ball 193 times a year ago and doesn't profile as a running back who will carry it 300 times. Even with 100 carries going to his backup, Prescott might have 100 more throws called. In his last two full seasons, Prescott threw an identical 37.25 times per game. If that goes up to 40, a healthy Prescott would tally 5,168 yards at his career average of 7.6 yards per attempt.
Elliott's departure also means more touchdowns are available near the goal line. The Cowboys had 22 rushing touchdowns last year. Two years ago, Prescott threw for 37 scores in 16 games, while Elliott and Pollard combined for 12. With an extra game and less temptation to hand it off inside the 5-yard line, Prescott could get to 41 - Mahomes' league-leading total last year.
Tua Tagovailoa (+1800) to lead NFL in passing yards
Removing the unfortunate Thursday night contest where Tua Tagovailoa left early with a concussion, the Dolphins' quarterback averaged 286.5 yards per game in his first year under Mike McDaniel and throwing to the Tyreek Hill-Jaylen Waddle combo. It might be optimistic to hope Tagovailoa plays a full 17 games, but his injury risk is why he's not priced closer to 10-1.
Lamar Jackson (+3000) to lead NFL in passing touchdowns
We may think of running when we think of Lamar Jackson - but so do defenses. Mark Andrews (10 TD in 2019) is back as a prime red zone target. Plus, Jackson hopes Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman are all better options than Marquise Brown and Willie Snead - his top targets at receiver in 2019. That year, Jackson threw for 36 touchdowns - which led the league - even as the Ravens ran for 22. Tweak that ratio just a bit, and Jackson's in the mix for the league lead, and his 30-1 odds make for a big payout.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
