We made it through the preseason, and whether it's because teams rarely allowed anyone of market significance to play in games or dodged meaningful injuries in camp, there's minimal change in how we rate the teams.
While preseason final scores are meaningless, some information can be gleaned from dress rehearsals to help confirm what we might have already thought of a team's season-long prospects as we look at the betting markets to make or miss the playoffs in each conference.
Make/Miss NFL playoffs odds
| TEAM | MAKE | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Eagles | -425 | +340 |
| 49ers | -400 | +320 |
| Cowboys | -240 | +200 |
| Lions | -175 | +150 |
| Saints | -165 | +140 |
| Seahawks | -120 | +100 |
| Falcons | +105 | -125 |
| Vikings | +105 | -125 |
| Packers | +170 | -200 |
| Bears | +170 | -200 |
| Giants | +180 | -210 |
| Panthers | +180 | -210 |
| Commanders | +290 | -360 |
| Rams | +290 | -360 |
| Buccaneers | +380 | -450 |
| Cardinals | +1100 | -1800 |
| Chiefs | -525 | +400 |
| Bills | -275 | +225 |
| Bengals | -250 | +210 |
| Jaguars | -200 | +170 |
| Ravens | -165 | +140 |
| Jets | -130 | +110 |
| Chargers | -105 | -115 |
| Dolphins | -105 | -115 |
| Browns | +110 | -130 |
| Steelers | +130 | -155 |
| Broncos | +190 | -220 |
| Titans | +250 | -300 |
| Patriots | +270 | -340 |
| Colts | +360 | -450 |
| Raiders | +450 | -600 |
| Texans | +500 | -700 |
Best bet: To make the playoffs
Favorite: Seahawks (-120)
It seemed last year like the NFC was asking around for volunteers to make the postseason, and the West appears to be a two-horse race with the loser of the division title likely to still make it in as a wild card.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's injury is supposed to be short-term, so with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett still around, missing a first-round selection isn't going to change how we value a Seattle team that snuck into the playoffs last season.
Thanks to astute dealings to add picks, the last two drafts were good for the Seahawks, as they seem to have scored two quality tackles and two dangerous corners. The thing we like most is the revamping of a porous run defense last season, as the team brought back Bobby Wagner and Jarran Reed while adding Dre'Mont Jones. At -120, this is a decent price to back Seattle, who is still on the rise.
Underdog: Packers (+170)
You're more likely to find a surprise playoff team in the NFC than the weighty AFC, and even with the Seahawks claiming a wild card, there are still two spots left for the rest of the NFC. As a bonus for Green Bay, the NFC North provides the combination of lacking a rock-solid favorite - meaning the Packers could mess around and win the division - and being competitive enough that second place should have a record that results in a wild card.
Green Bay's schedule includes the NFC South, and because the team finished third last season, the Cowboys, Eagles, 49ers, and Seahawks are avoided in other in-conference matchups.
Long shot: Titans (+250)
The more we saw out of the Texans' and Colts' rookie quarterbacks this preseason, the more it looked like it will take some time for their offenses to get up to speed. The Titans are nobody's idea of exciting, but Mike Vrabel will get the most out of a veteran group that is under the radar since he sat Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins for the preseason.
Tennessee is +350 to win the division, so it's a minimal drop in payout to add the safety net of a wild card, even if its competition is steep. Having a healthy defense with hopes for full seasons out of Harold Landry, Kristian Fulton, and Amani Hooker should make the Titans more like the 2021 version of themselves that won the division.
Best bet: To miss the playoffs
Favorite: Panthers (-210)
You don't want to overreact to the preseason, but we were already worried about the Panthers when looking at the depth chart around Bryce Young. The first overall pick didn't play as much as expected in their three warmup games, attempting just 24 passes and carrying the ball four times. If that was to protect him from a shaky offensive line, that doesn't bode well for this coming season.
Meanwhile, it's worth questioning whether Frank Reich was an inspired hire to develop Young. We're getting a manageable price on a team with little chance to make the postseason because it's in the league's worst division and there will be a wide-open conference wild-card race.
Underdog: Saints (+140)
If you know what to make of the Saints, you're better than I am. We're getting an underdog price on Dennis Allen to miss the playoffs because New Orleans is the nominal favorite to win the NFC South, which is wild considering he's 18-47 as a head coach.
Sure, Derek Carr is an upgrade at quarterback, but there are plenty of other question marks. The defense was fourth in opponent yards per play last year, and the Saints only won seven games. So what if that unit takes a step back? If the offense doesn't get resurgent years from Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, then Carr might end up in a similar situation as he had with the Raiders - a coin flip to make the playoffs in the season's final weeks.
Long shot: Bills (+225)
Betting on a quality team to miss the playoffs probably requires it to be in a tough division, in a tough conference, with a tough schedule. It helps this bet that the Bills showed some flaws to end last year and have to play the Bengals, Chiefs, Chargers, and Eagles on the road, and there are also the divisional games and a visit from the Cowboys. A record of 10-7 would be good with those 11 games on the slate, but in a loaded AFC, it might not be enough for playoff participation.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
