Imagine a world where it doesn't matter who's the starting signal-caller in the NFL. Like any good bettor, we fight the concept that the quarterback is the be-all and end-all. But that's usually an argument relative to the overall valuation of a team. When it comes to betting markets, that's the universe where the 49ers reside, as it doesn't matter whether it's Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, or maybe even Sam Darnold playing quarterback.
Apparently, Kyle Shanahan is just on that level. It seemed to matter for a while that Jimmy Garoppolo started San Francisco's games. But then Purdy was thrust into action last year and went full DJ Khaled - all he did was win - until he broke his arm in the NFC Championship Game.
Beyond a lack of concern about the quarterback, the other point of emphasis for how the betting market feels about the 49ers (11-6 ATS last year) is that the NFC might stink.
We dealt with the AFC in recent weeks, often alluding to the conference's loaded list of quarterbacks. It's fitting we start the NFC portion with San Francisco, projected as the conference's second-best team despite what would typically be a question mark at the most important position.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 10.5 (-140/+120) |
| Division | -155 |
| Conference | +400 |
| Super Bowl | +900 |
| Estimated rating | 63/100 |
The 49ers' win total can be found at 11.5, with their under juiced as high as -165, or 10.5 with their over juiced to -140. Either way, that middle point of 11 projected wins suggests a .647 win percentage. In a relatively weak division within the weaker conference, the number should dip if we translate that to a league-wide rating. As such, we'll call the 49ers a 63/100.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @PIT | SF -3 |
| 2 | @LAR | SF -4.5 |
| 3 | NYG | SF -6 |
| 4 | ARI | SF -9.5 |
| 5 | DAL | SF -2.5 |
| 6 | @CLE | SF -1 |
| 7 | @MIN | SF -2.5 |
| 8 | CIN | SF -1 |
| 10 | @JAX | SF -1 |
| 11 | TB | SF -7.5 |
| 12 | @SEA | SF -1.5 |
| 13 | @PHI | PHI -2.5 |
| 14 | SEA | SF -4 |
| 15 | @ARI | SF -6.5 |
| 16 | BAL | SF -3 |
| 17 | @WSH | SF -3.5 |
| 18 | LAR | SF -7 |
While our estimated rating calculations have often worked nicely in figuring out why various point spreads are what they are this season, it feels like San Francisco could be rated higher than 63.
If we take the 27-point scale we've been using to determine point spreads, the 49ers are worth 17 points. They visit a Steelers (55/100) team worth 14.85 in Week 1. That makes San Francisco just over two points better than Pittsburgh, which means this line should be close to pick'em. San Francisco is a field goal favorite.
Confusingly, the 49ers are also projected to be favored in all but one of their games this season. They appear to be rated higher on a game-to-game basis than in season-long markets.
What's to like about the 49ers
Even a casual NFL fan should be familiar with San Francisco since it's made the playoffs in three of the last four seasons and played nine postseason games over the stretch. That level of exposure and success, along with minimal roster turnover, means we know what we're getting from the Niners.
The 49ers' front office has done another good job managing key roster departures - Mike McGlinchey, Jimmie Ward, Emmanuel Moseley - with veteran plug-ins thanks to an inexpensive quarterback room. The biggest names are all back on both sides of the ball, and Shanahan is still there to call the plays for whoever takes the snaps.
What's not to like about the 49ers
While Shanahan's the constant, the offensive coaching staff has taken hits year after year, and losing Demeco Ryans to the Texans is a big deal. He replaced Robert Saleh. Steve Wilks comes in as defensive coordinator after a successful stint in Carolina, but there's lost continuity. On the field, the secondary - always something of a concern with "the Faithful" - continues to get thinner.
With McGlinchey scoring a big payday from the Broncos, the 49ers' depth chart lists 2020 fifth-round pick Colton McKivitz as the starter at right tackle next to Spencer Burford. If you were looking to put the heat on their young quarterback, the defensive left side would be your attack point.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | MVP | +5000 |
| Most passing yards | +7000 | |
| Most passing TD | +4000 | |
| Trey Lance | Comeback POTY | +3500 |
| Christian McCaffrey | MVP | +8000 |
| Offensive POTY | +1500 | |
| Most rushing yards | +3500 | |
| Most rushing TD | +2500 | |
| Most receptions | +4000 | |
| Deebo Samuel | Offensive POTY | +4000 |
| Most receptions | +7500 | |
| Most receiving yards | +5000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +4000 | |
| Nick Bosa | Defensive POTY | +1200 |
| Most sacks | +550 | |
| Fred Warner | Defensive POTY | +4500 |
| Kyle Shanahan | Coach of the Year | +3000 |
Nick Bosa is +550 to defend his 2022 season sack title but has odds twice as long to get credit as the best defender in the league, which is intriguing.
The offense is expected to run through Christian McCaffrey after he recorded 1,200 total yards in just 11 games with the 49ers last season. With a young quarterback relying on him heavily and a real shot at 2,000 all-purpose yards, he'll be in the conversation for Offensive Player of the Year.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
