The Texans are on their fifth head coach this decade.
That sentence alone should keep you skeptical of an organization, but as we know, what matters is not how bad you are but how bad the betting market thinks you are.
Houston finished 3-13 last year, and that third win was somewhat controversial as it cost them a chance to draft Bryce Young. The Texans will probably never admit whether they liked Young more than their new franchise quarterback, C.J. Stroud, but an against-the-spread record of 8-8-1 kept bettors on their toes, even with Davis Mills, Jeff Driskel, and Kyle Allen taking snaps. If Stroud can step right in and do better than that trio's 20:19 touchdown-to-interception ratio, then the Texans' real record could look closer to their spread record. That's probably why the Texans have taken money to the over on their season win total.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 5.5 (-165) |
| Division | +900 |
| Conference | +10000 |
| Super Bowl | +20000 |
| Estimated rating | 33/100 |
The Texans covered in four of their final five games last season, not because they played particularly better late in the season but because the market rated them down in the low 20s. Being 17.5-point underdogs at the Cowboys or 14-point underdogs at home to the Chiefs is going to set up even the worst team in the NFL to cover a point spread.
With a higher starting point this season at 33/100 - thanks to a 5.5 win total with a -165 price to the over - the Texans won't likely see the same inflated numbers for their opponents. Houston will have to earn a respectable ATS record this year.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @BAL | BAL -9 |
| 2 | IND | HOU -1 |
| 3 | @JAX | JAX -7 |
| 4 | PIT | PIT -3.5 |
| 5 | @ATL | ATL -3 |
| 6 | NO | NO -3 |
| 8 | @CAR | CAR -3 |
| 9 | TB | HOU -1 |
| 10 | @CIN | CIN -9.5 |
| 11 | ARI | HOU -1.5 |
| 12 | JAX | JAX -4.5 |
| 13 | DEN | DEN -4 |
| 14 | @NYJ | NYJ -8.5 |
| 15 | @TEN | TEN -3 |
| 16 | CLE | CLE -4 |
| 17 | TEN | TEN -1 |
| 18 | @IND | IND -1.5 |
Let's check our work on the ratings ahead of Week 1. The Ravens' rating of 64 earns them 16.6 points on a point-spread scale of 27 points. Then, 33% of 27 is nine points, which sets the difference between Baltimore and Houston at 7.6 points. Give the Ravens 1.5 points for home-field advantage, and you've got a spread of -9.
The Colts' rating of 37/100 gives them a point spread value of 10.1 - one better than the Texans. Week 2's matchup is in Houston, though, so the Texans go from the smallest of underdogs to the smallest of favorites.
What's to like about the Texans
There finally seems to be something of a blueprint now that DeMeco Ryans has been hired away from the 49ers. Houston took a huge swing on draft night, getting Will Anderson as well as Stroud in the top three. They've added veteran pieces via free agency - a testament to new interest from players in going to Houston. Former 49er Jimmie Ward stands out as a leader in a secondary that has promising young stars in Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley.
Ryans brings over Bobby Slowik to revamp the offense after spending six years on the staff in San Francisco. The 49ers' system should take some pressure off of a mediocre interior line, while Laremy Tunsil is one of the best left tackles in football. Stroud will be put in a position to succeed if he can grasp things quickly.
What's not to like about the Texans
It'll all be very new in Houston. You're within your rights to be concerned about an Ohio State quarterback picking up an NFL offense. The Buckeyes do a great job at getting their more talented players open on one or two reads for the quarterback. Dameon Pierce burst onto the scene last year, but unlike in Columbus, Stroud won't just be able to turn and hand off for big gains on days where he's not playing his best.
Anderson was as reliable a pick as you could make - an almost definite 10-year starter - but will he be a star, and right away? Ryan can scheme some pressure, but he might find things as difficult as Robert Saleh did when he took over the Jets. It's easier to get pressure when you have the 49ers' players.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | MVP | +15000 |
| Offensive POTY | +15000 | |
| Offensive ROTY | +850 | |
| Most passing yards | +10000 | |
| Most passing TD | +10000 | |
| Most rookie passing yards | +105 | |
| Dameon Pierce | Offensive POTY | +7500 |
| Most rushing yards | +4000 | |
| Most rushing TD | +6500 | |
| Comeback POTY | +5000 | |
| Will Anderson | Defensive ROTY | +350 |
| Defensive POTY | +13000 | |
| Most sacks | +5000 | |
| Jalen Pitre | Defensive POTY | +15000 |
| Derek Stingley Jr. | Defensive POTY | +20000 |
| John Metchie | Comeback POTY | +3000 |
| Demeco Ryans | Coach of the Year | +2200 |
Ryans is definitely a legitimate Coach of the Year candidate. Expected to win six games, that's already a three-win jump on last year, so an eight-win season would be really impressive. The problem is there'll inevitably be a team that makes the playoffs as a surprise, and a non-playoff team's coach will be overlooked in first-place votes.
The most interesting futures bet to me is John Metchie for Comeback Player of the Year. One of the many star receivers to come out of Alabama recently, Metchie missed his first season after being diagnosed with leukemia. On a team without much receiver depth, he could get plenty of targets and quickly get the attention he deserves from coming back from cancer - a scenario that's won players this award in the past.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
