In a betting context, it's incredibly hard for a team to reach the Super Bowl and then go 12-3-1 against the spread the following season. But the Bengals did it. It's even wilder considering they didn't cover the first two games of the 2022 season.
What it means is the betting market continued to undervalue Cincinnati no matter the week-to-week evidence that we were doing so. The market's uncertainty about Cincinnati was exemplified in the playoffs when the team was overvalued at -7.5 relative to the Ravens in the wild-card round, then undervalued before an upset win in Buffalo, and then concern over a hobbled Patrick Mahomes dropped the line below a field goal in the AFC Championship Game.
The most interesting betting market circumstance occurred with the unfortunate cancellation of Week 17's game against the Bills. Because that game wasn't played, the market was unable to evaluate whether Buffalo should have been favored in Cincinnati. Because there was no data point, the Bills were favored by almost a touchdown in the divisional round. A convincing Bengals win over Buffalo on that fateful Monday night might have pulled the playoff spread under a field goal.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 11.5 (+120) |
| Division | +130 |
| Conference | +500 |
| Super Bowl | +1100 |
| Estimated rating | 74/100 |
Nestled in behind the Chiefs in the ratings, I'm happy to make the case the Bengals are every bit as good. We've seen enough Chiefs-Bengals matchups over the last two seasons to know there's little separating them. Cincinnati is back on the road for the regular-season duel in Week 17.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @CLE | CIN -2.5 |
| 2 | BAL | CIN -3.5 |
| 3 | LAR | CIN -7.5 |
| 4 | @TEN | CIN -4.5 |
| 5 | @ARI | CIN -7.5 |
| 6 | SEA | CIN -4.5 |
| 8 | @SF | SF -1 |
| 9 | BUF | CIN -1 |
| 10 | HOU | CIN -9.5 |
| 11 | @BAL | CIN -1 |
| 12 | PIT | CIN -4.5 |
| 13 | @JAX | CIN -1 |
| 14 | IND | CIN -9 |
| 15 | MIN | CIN -5 |
| 16 | @PIT | CIN -2.5 |
| 17 | @KC | KC -3 |
| 18 | CLE | CIN -3.5 |
Complicating things for Week 1 is that the Bengals open this season away to the Browns, who Joe Burrow needed five tries to beat - often losing handily - until a December victory when Cincy's quarterback was just OK (18/33, 239 yds, 2 TD, INT).
The Bengals are only -1 at home to Buffalo in Week 9 lookahead lines. If Cincinnati is the better team - as we expect - then that's a good buy right now.
How much is home-field advantage worth these days? You can bet the Bengals -2.5 at Cleveland in Week 1, and if you wanted to get a bet down on the Week 18 rematch, you'd have to give just one more point at home. It's a pretty important point - crossing the most key number in football betting, but Week 18's frequent weirdness limits how far oddsmakers are willing to adjust. After all, the Bengals' other two divisional matchups cross -3 and do so for more than a point.
What's to like about the Bengals
Is "they cover all the time" something you might like about the Bengals? A 32-17 mark against the spread is ridiculous.
Offensively, the Bengals continue to positively tinker with their offensive line, adding Orlando Brown Jr., much to the dismay of incumbent left tackle Jonah Williams. Cincinnati has done well to trim around the edges - backup tailback, tight end - to keep the core happy.
What's not to like about the Bengals
Unfortunately, a 65% cover rate in the past doesn't actually mean anything for the future. The Bengals are lined 1.5 games higher than they were last summer, and their conference and Super Bowl odds are cut in half.
The Bengals face two challenges relating to defensive personnel. The first is that the secondary is getting awfully young with Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell departed. Plus, cornerstone Chidobe Awuzie is coming off a torn ACL from October.
This could be hidden with exceptional pressure from the defensive front, but only three teams had fewer sacks than the Bengals last season. And while they made a point of using their first pick on Myles Murphy, it's still a concern.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | MVP | +750 |
| Offensive POTY | +3000 | |
| Most passing yards | +900 | |
| Most passing TD | +450 | |
| Joe Mixon | Most rushing yards | +3500 |
| Most rushing TD | +2500 | |
| Ja'Marr Chase | MVP | +10000 |
| Offensive POTY | +1000 | |
| Most receptions | +600 | |
| Most receiving yards | +600 | |
| Most receiving TD | +400 | |
| Trey Hendrickson | Defensive POTY | +8000 |
| Most sacks | +5000 | |
| Sam Hubbard | Defensive POTY | +10000 |
| Most sacks | +10000 | |
| Myles Murphy | Defensive ROTY | +2000 |
| Zac Taylor | Coach of the Year | +2500 |
Defensive-line usage will be interesting for Murphy's chances at Defensive Rookie of the Year, as Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard are pretty entrenched, but the club used a first-round pick on Murphy anyway.
Burrow is right behind Mahomes for most passing touchdowns, and his favorite target - Ja'Marr Chase - is the favorite to haul in the most TD receptions. Chase is awesome, but he had 100-plus yards in just a third of his games last season. Burrow feeds other pass-catchers too, making short prices for Chase to best the league's numerous star receivers lack value.
This feels like it's setting up for Burrow's MVP season, but he's an eyelash behind Mahomes for the favorite there too, so it's not like that bet carries a ton of value in any sneaky way.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
