The Chargers' 2021 season ended with an overtime loss to their division rival that kept them out of the playoffs and, more specifically, a play sequence that led many to wonder whether head coach Brandon Staley was ready for big-time football games.
Somehow, the Chargers' 2022 season ended even worse. It started with the refusal of Staley and upper management to sit his injury-riddled stars in a meaningless Week 18 game that they lost anyway and saw Mike Williams get hurt and miss their first playoff game in four years. Undaunted, the Chargers went to Jacksonville and took a 27-0 lead. They lost as short favorites, 31-30.
The Wild Card Weekend disaster was a stunner for Chargers' bettors after a season where they were actually profitable, going 11-5-1 against the spread. It was even more impressive given a complete lack of home-field advantage. Since moving, the Chargers have gone 16-26-1 against the spread at home, and they went 3-0-1 at SoFi Stadium to finish the season - a big indication that the market has removed any respect for when they're the hosts.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | |
|---|---|
| Win total | 9.5 (-105) |
| Division | +350 |
| Conference | +1200 |
| Super Bowl | +2500 |
| Estimated rating | 63/100 |
A market rating of 63 out of 100 tells us that bettors don't want to be hurt again by the Chargers, but they're also not ruling them out. A 10-7 record seems good enough, but how the organization handled the end of the season makes the team hard to trust.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | LAC -2.5 |
| 2 | @TEN | LAC -3.5 |
| 3 | @MIN | LAC -1.5 |
| 4 | LV | LAC -5.5 |
| 6 | DAL | LAC -1 |
| 7 | KC | KC -5.5 |
| 8 | CHI | LAC -5.5 |
| 9 | @NYJ | NYJ -2 |
| 10 | DET | LAC -2.5 |
| 11 | @GB | LAC -2.5 |
| 12 | BAL | LAC -2 |
| 13 | @NE | LAC -1.5 |
| 14 | DEN | LAC -3 |
| 15 | @LV | LAC -2.5 |
| 16 | BUF | BUF -1 |
| 17 | @DEN | DEN -1 |
| 18 | KC | KC -2 |
At a quick glance, the Chargers are currently lined to be the favorite in 12 of 17 games. But before you hammer that over 9.5 win total bet, remember the Bolts' season is loaded with coin-flip lines. They could have 14 games that go off within a field goal, and their season might close with 10 straight games lined at -3 or tighter.
What's to like about the Chargers
For those paying close attention, Brandon Staley wasn't the biggest target for derision on the Chargers' coaching staff. Division opponent Russell Wilson has the buzzword attached to him, and Chargers offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi refused to let Justin Herbert cook. Herbert was 39th out of 40 quarterbacks in average depth of target with Lombardi calling plays, an insane stat given he might have the best deep arm in the league - something we know only because of Herbert's throws on frequent third-and-longs. Lombardi is out, and Kellen Moore comes over from Dallas with an eye on going deep.
You need protection to go long. The Chargers get all-world left tackle Rashawn Slater back after he missed almost the entire season, and everyone will have their fingers crossed that Williams can stay healthy opposite first-round pick Quentin Johnston. Corey Linsley and Keenan Allen also missed time. You never knew which top-flight defender would be out each week. A bounce-back year from J.C. Jackson is critical, as both he and Joey Bosa combined for nine games played.
What's not to like about the Chargers
Maybe it's a coincidence that the Chargers constantly have ample injuries while never reaching their potential, but the Herbert era started on short notice after Tyrod Taylor took a faulty needle injection, and the organization threw betting markets into chaos before Week 18 when it refused to rest the stars. Why would we think that Bosa, Jackson, Derwin James, Khalil Mack, Asante Samuel, Slater, Linsley, Williams, Allen, Herbert, and Austin Ekeler all stay reasonably healthy?
Covering as an underdog in close losses to the Chiefs is cool and all, but at some point the team needs to get over the hump that is Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.
The lack of anything that would qualify as home-field advantage likely costs the Chargers one full win each season.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | MVP | +1300 |
| Offensive POTY | +3500 | |
| Most passing yards | +650 | |
| Most passings TD | +1100 | |
| Austin Ekeler | Offensive POTY | +3500 |
| Most rushing yards | +3500 | |
| Most rushing TD | +1400 | |
| Mike Williams | Offensive POTY | +7500 |
| Most receptions | +8000 | |
| Most receiving yards | +4500 | |
| Most receiving TD | +3500 | |
| Comeback POTY | +5500 | |
| Keenan Allen | Offensive POTY | +7500 |
| Most receptions | +3500 | |
| Most receiving yards | +6000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +5000 | |
| Comeback POTY | +8000 | |
| Joey Bosa | Defensive POTY | +4500 |
| Most sacks | +5000 | |
| Comeback POTY | +8000 | |
| Derwin James | Defensive POTY | +6000 |
| Quentin Johnston | Offensive ROTY | +2000 |
| Most rookie receiving yards | +600 | |
| Tuli Tuipulotu | Defensive ROTY | +5000 |
| Rashawn Slater | Comeback POTY | +7000 |
| Brandon Staley | Coach of the Year | +2500 |
It's telling that so many Chargers are listed at shorter than 100-1 to be the Comeback Player of the Year.
Ekeler led the NFL in overall touchdowns last season but was beat out by Jamaal Williams in the rushing TD category. At 14-1, Ekeler is worth a look to turn a couple of the receiving scores into rushing ones.
The ship has sailed on Staley ever winning a Coach of the Year award, as the team has too much talent for any success to seem like it was due to the coach.
With so much support around them, you could do worse than take fliers on both Johnston and Tuli Tuipulotu to win rookie of the year awards.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
