NHL weekend betting guide: True moneylines for every game

Our trusty guide suggested a bet on the Senators on Thursday night, but who could blame you if you passed on that one?

In fact, how could anyone quarrel if you haven't made an NHL bet all week? With Friday's trade deadline looming, a lot is happening off the ice. Some players have already moved on, while others still wonder if they'll get the tap on the shoulder.

Patrick Kane and Jakob Chychrun debuted for the Rangers and Senators, respectively. Kane's the bigger name and has shown flashes of his younger self recently, but Chychrun is likely to be the more impactful player long term, as he leads all defensemen in expected goals per 60 minutes this season. Adding these two into the equation for a single game is problematic. We were already trying to figure out New York's value since Vladimir Tarasenko landed in the Big Apple, which is clouded by his ability to do this once in a while:

The Rangers have been a complicated case since they ignored poor on-ice metrics to make a run to the Eastern Conference Final last season. Let's take a look at how they've been rated over time.

An average NHL team is considered 1.0, so despite being below average last season, the Rangers rode Igor Shesterkin's Vezina-winning campaign to 110 points. It was such an overachievement that this year's preseason point total market projected them at 99.5 despite largely the same team returning.

New York has improved at five-on-five this season but is still getting quality goaltending from both Shesterkin and veteran backup Jaroslav Halak. As a result, the team is on a similar point pace to last season.

In their first 10 games with Tarasenko prior to Thursday night, the Rangers were 6-4 on the moneyline, but their five-on-five metrics were below average with just a 48% expected goal share and having allowed an average of two more high-danger chances per game than they created at even strength.

Of course, with good goaltending and an effective power play (only two teams have more than power-play goals since the All-Star break) the Rangers can often make up for that discrepancy. They even got a shorthanded goal against the Senators, but while Halak was excellent early, Ottawa was the better team at even strength and full value for a 5-3 win.

The recipe

We started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.