Unwilling to trust the Rams to cover a number bigger than a field goal last year, we backed Los Angeles on the moneyline. Cool, a -170 moneyline winner. Where we really did some good work was Cooper Kupp's MVP performance paying out early bets at +600. When it comes to the Super Bowl, it's rarely about the side and much more about everything around the winners and losers. The market for MVP is your best chance to bet a little and make a lot. Unless, as expected, a quarterback is handed the award.
When betting on Super Bowl MVP, it stands to reason that you'd want to focus your selection(s) on the team that you think is going to win, though that doesn't mean you can't bet on the other team's players if there's enough value. Here, we'll look at how to bet the MVP if you like the Chiefs to win SB LVII. If you like Philadelphia, the best value plays on the Eagles are here.
Here's a look at the odds for Super Bowl LVI MVP, courtesy of theScore Bet.
| PLAYER | MVP ODDS |
|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | +120 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +140 |
| Travis Kelce | +1200 |
| AJ Brown | +1300 |
| DeVonta Smith | +2500 |
| Miles Sanders | +3000 |
| Chris Jones | +5000 |
| Darius Slay | +5000 |
| Jerick McKinnon | +5000 |
| Isiah Pacheco | +6000 |
| Haason Reddick | +6000 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | +6000 |
| Dallas Goedert | +6000 |
| Brandon Graham | +7500 |
| Juju Smith-Schuster | +7500 |
| Frank Clark | +10000 |
| Mecole Hardman | +10000 |
| Nick Bolton | +10000 |
| TJ Edwards | +10000 |
| Chad Henne | +10000 |
| Gardner Minshew | +10000 |
| Boston Scott | +15000 |
| CJ Gardner-Johnson | +15000 |
| George Karlaftis | +15000 |
| James Bradberry | +15000 |
| Josh Sweat | +15000 |
| Justin Reid | +15000 |
| Kadarius Toney | +15000 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | +15000 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | +15000 |
| Fletcher Cox | +20000 |
Patrick Mahomes is +137 to win Super Bowl MVP. That's an implied win probability of 42.4% compared to the Chiefs' moneyline at +110 (47.6%). There's just a 5.2% allotment for a Chief MVP other than Mahomes.
Best Chiefs bet: Travis Kelce (+1200)
If the Chiefs win, it'll be a surprise if Mahomes doesn't take home MVP. After all, it was thought that Damien Williams was the more deserving candidate in Super Bowl LIV after he recorded 133 total yards and two touchdowns, but Mahomes got the trophy. For another Chief to win it, they'll need to be someone voters gravitate to.
I don't need to list the virtues of Travis Kelce, who's on his way to being statistically the best tight end of all time. It also helps that he's half of a brother-versus-brother storyline involving two of the most verbose characters in the sport that'll permeate through the lead-up to the game. The spotlight will be on Kelce - exactly what he wants - and he's capable of a 100-plus yard, multi-touchdown game that could wrestle the MVP away from Mahomes.
Long shot: Chris Jones (+5000)
Last year, we thought Cooper Kupp might get some extra voter interest because he didn't win the regular-season MVP. Chris Jones is likely going to be a runner-up to Nick Bosa for Defensive Player of the Year. With a pair of sacks and other game-wrecking pressures, Jones was easily the most outstanding player in the AFC championship. However, Mahomes' heroics would've gotten him an MVP for that game. If the Eagles' defense can handle Mahomes in a close, low-scoring game, Jones' dominance will be that much more impressive.
Mega-long shots:
Let's take a handful of dollars and sprinkle them around on a handful of players who could follow in the footsteps of Von Miller, Malcolm Smith, Dexter Jackson, Desmond Howard, and Larry Brown. Six defensive/special teams players have won MVP in the last 30 years.
Kadarius Toney (150-1)
Like Kenneth Gainwell on the Eagles' side, Kadarius Toney's not a defensive player, but he's someone who could be dangerous at a big payout. He'd need to be healthy enough to play, but in a championship contest that often has one signature play, a world exists in which Toney scores twice, potentially once on a rushing attempt or via special teams. Arguably the best athlete on the field, Toney could provide the highlight we'll see for years to come.
Trent McDuffie (250-1)
Outside of Jones, it's going to be really hard for a Chiefs defender to stand out as MVP. While the Eagles' defensive players will have ample opportunity to make life tough on Mahomes, the Eagles' run-centric approach and Jalen Hurts' few turnovers this season means it's unlikely an interception will turn the game on its head.
However, once we hit 250-1 for a defensive back, we have to throw a dollar or two on it. Trent McDuffie should see the lion's share of targets against him, and though he doesn't have an interception in his rookie season, all it takes is one pick-6 and a couple of other standout plays. The same applies to safety Juan Thornhill, who has three picks this season and a sack but is off the board as of this writing. If the odds for Thornhill pop up at 250-1 or better, he's worth a shiny coin as well.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
