We've had fun all season long with the NFL's version of "Must See TV" Thursdays. We've tried to keep things light by using the famous Thursday night appointment television show "Seinfeld" to help with our look at the prop markets and get us in the right state of mind. While the playoffs are more serious for the players, we should remember that it's still just any other game for bettors, and there are still lessons to be taken from Jerry, George, Elaine, and Kramer.
"I'm telling you right now. If you're kidding around, I'm not going to be able to be your friend anymore. ... If this is a lie, if this is a joke, if this is your idea of some cute little game, we're finished." - George to Jerry after he's told the "it girl" from college will call him.
For all the public excitement about the Bengals' current eight-game winning streak, the Ravens were a sizeable division favorite more than halfway through the season. Then Lamar Jackson got hurt. If someone had told a Bengals fan at the time that Jackson wouldn't return, they'd think you were messing with them. Unfortunately, his absence has largely ruined the anticipation for this Sunday night wild-card game as the point spread creeps toward double digits.
'The Marine Biologist'
Just like George and Elaine in "The Marine Biologist," we're going to take on an intimidating character for Ravens-Bengals.
Both offenses will have a difficult time scoring Sunday, so we're looking to play our first under of Wild Card Weekend. Fading Joe Burrow is as nerve-racking as facing a longtime college crush or an ill-tempered writer like Yuri Testikov, but Burrow's prescribed yardage total has been set 10-15 yards higher than in similar matchups.
John Harbaugh's defensive staff knows everything about the Bengals' offensive plan and has the personnel to slow it down. Pass rushes of similar talent - like the Buccaneers', Panthers', and Cowboys' units - were able to vex Cincinnati's "golden boy." Now, the right side of Burrow's offensive line is compromised after recent injuries to La'el Collins and Alex Cappa.
Baltimore has given up more than 16 points just twice since adding Roquan Smith. One was a late-game collapse in Jacksonville where the Ravens held the Jaguars to 10 points through three-and-a-half quarters, and the other was last week when Anthony Brown kept giving the Bengals short fields, as well as seven points on a fumble recovery.
Burrow hasn't recorded more than 217 passing yards against Baltimore this season, including last week's walk-through where he threw 42 times. Another clock-churning slugfest won't provide Burrow the opportunity to match his biggest passing games from this season.
Pick: Joe Burrow under 269.5 passing yards
A TD that's definitely going to happen
"The sea was angry that day my friends, like an old man trying to send back soup at a deli."
The classic moment of this episode occurs when George gets backed into trying to save a beached whale. He's not exactly the guy you'd want to rely on in a tight spot, but he gets the job done. In a game where field goals will be valuable currency, Ja'Marr Chase is the most reliable target to win a contested matchup.
Chase scored in four of seven games before his midseason injury, and in three of five since returning. He's also seen double-digit targets in 10 of 12 games. No matter the coverage, Burrow is looking to Chase in crunch time, and he can throw through a tighter window than Testikov with an electronic organizer.
Pick: Ja'Marr Chase anytime touchdown (+100)
A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does
Tyler Huntley will continue to try to be a reasonable facsimile to Jackson, but the Ravens know their best approach is to try to load up with numerous tight ends and run the ball repeatedly.
We're taking a bigger swing than Kramer trying to hit Titleists into the ocean, but Josh Oliver averaged a roughly 50% snap share in the latter half of the season and could see even more of the field Sunday. If that's the case, his chances of scoring on a play-action pass are at least better than the original title of Tolstoy's "War and Peace" being "War, What is it Good For?"
Pick: Josh Oliver anytime touchdown (+1400)
How to bet: The first two bets should be single-unit wagers to win a unit on minus prices and more than a unit on a plus-money bet. The last wager should be smaller, trying to win back your standard unit size.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
