NHL Wednesday best bets: Oilers to shine vs. Stars
Tuesday night was a good one on the ice. Despite the curveball of Connor Hellebuyck missing the game with an illness, the Jets stomped the Senators 5-1, while the Flyers also took care of business inside regulation at near even money (-110) against a banged-up Blue Jackets team.
We'll look to build on a strong night with two more best bets for Wednesday's slate.
Predators (-190) @ Blackhawks (+170)
The Predators have really struggled lately, winning just four of the last 10 games and controlling a measly 47% of the expected goal share at five-on-five, good for 21st in the league - not great.
Even so, there's plenty to like about Nashville in this spot. The Blackhawks are in as bad of form as you'll see anywhere in the NHL this season: They are on a 1-9-0 run, have dropped seven consecutive games, and their underlyings are mind-numbingly bad.
The Blackhawks have controlled just 42% of the expected goal share at five-on-five. Their defensive numbers are not good either, but that's mostly a result of their completely inept offense.
Chicago has generated just 1.93 expected goals and 8.55 high-danger chances per 60 minutes over the last 10, both of which rank dead last in the NHL.
The Blackhawks are struggling to create anything of real danger. The Preds are not flawless on defense by any means, but they should be able to limit this opponent's putrid attack. Nashville's goaltending tandem is more than capable of taking care of business on the few occasions Chicago does break through with a good chance.
Juuse Saros is Juuse Saros, and Kevin Lankinen has been surprisingly lights out as a backup. Lankinen sits ninth on a per-game basis - sandwiched between Hellebuyck and Carter Hart - in goals saved above expected.
With Saros having played three in a row and the next game coming against the Avalanche, I think the Predators may slip Lankinen in for a start versus his former team.
Based on what we've seen from him this year and the state of this Chicago attack, he'll likely be just fine.
On the flip side, this is a great spot for Nashville's offense. Petr Mrazek owns an .872 save percentage and is a bottom-five goaltender in GSAE per start. The Predators should have no problem mustering up three goals or more.
Look for them to win this inside 60 minutes.
Bet: Predators in regulation (-110)
Oilers (+120) @ Stars (-145)
The Oilers let us down in overtime last time out, but we're going right back to the well against the Stars.
Simply put, Edmonton is playing much better than recent results suggest. The Oilers have controlled 55.7% of the expected goal share at five-on-five over the last couple of weeks, giving them the fifth-highest total in the league and ranking them first among all Western Conference teams.
Say what you want about the Oilers' depth - it isn't good - but there is no denying the insane firepower they have atop the roster. If they're going to get the better of the chances to this extent, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Co. will convert that into wins more often than not.
If the Oilers can play the Stars even at full strength, which isn't a big ask, I like their chances of winning on special teams.
We all know Edmonton's power play is as prolific as any team's, and it's important to note that Dallas is having a hard time killing penalties right now.
The Stars rank 27th in expected goal suppression while undermanned over the last 10 contests. They're giving up plenty of chances, which is a recipe for disaster against this Edmonton team.
Dallas has also struggled with discipline - only five teams have spent more time shorthanded per game this season.
Behind both the power play and Stuart Skinner - Edmonton's clear top netminder - the Oilers should be able to snap out of their three-game funk and claim two points.
Bet: Oilers (+120)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.