NHL Thursday best bets: Flames to burn Lightning
We have a monstrous 13-game slate ahead of us Thursday night, meaning there's plenty of value on the board.
A couple of Canadian teams on the road stand out the most to me. Here's why:
Canadiens (-120) @ Blue Jackets (+100)
The Blue Jackets have been one of the league's biggest disappointments in the early going. Expectations were higher for them after a splashy offseason headlined by signing Johnny Gaudreau, but they sit tied for dead last in points through 15 games.
There isn't much reason to expect Columbus to right the ship anytime soon.
The Blue Jackets are a top-heavy team that lives and dies on the performances of their stars (and goaltenders).
With notables like Zach Werenski, Patrik Laine, and Jakub Voracek, among others, on the injured list, Columbus doesn't have the firepower to compensate for its lack of depth and defensive prowess.
Elvis Merzlikins ranking last in goals saved above expected has only magnified the team's problems. The Blue Jackets need him to play well because Joonas Korpisalo (minus-13.2 GSAE last season) isn't the answer.
Dealing with a laundry list of key injuries is relatively new to Columbus this season. Yet, at five-on-five, it sits 30th in high-danger chance share over the last 10 games. It was routinely being outplayed even with most of its key players healthy.
While the Canadiens aren't exactly world-beaters, they're playing competent hockey. They've picked up 11 points over the last 10 games and rank six spots ahead of the Blue Jackets in high-danger chance share.
Montreal has also gotten much better goaltending. Tonight's projected starter, Sam Montembeault, has saved 4.8 goals above expected through five appearances.
Even over a small sample, it's encouraging that the Habs haven't seen a dip in performance when giving Jake Allen a night off.
With the Canadiens performing better at five-on-five and Montembeault playing surprisingly well, I expect Montreal to rebound following a blowout loss Tuesday night.
Bet: Canadiens (-120)
Flames (+105) @ Lightning (-125)
The Flames are playing some of the best hockey you'll see from a team that has won three of their last 10 games.
At five-on-five, Calgary has controlled 55.70% of the shot attempts and 57.67% of the high-danger chances over the last 10. Both of those totals comfortably rank them inside the top five.
The Flames' biggest problem was a lack of puck luck. Their PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage) was unsustainably low during the losing skid and made all the difference considering they lost by a single goal in five of the seven losses. Had they gotten breaks, instead of the other way around, we could be talking about a team that's won seven of 10.
At any rate, Calgary appears back on track. It picked up back-to-back wins against the Jets and Kings - two teams sitting second in their divisions. And strained winger Jonathan Huberdeau has finally started getting involved, earning points in each of those games.
While the Lightning are always a tough out, there's plenty of reason to like the Flames in this spot. Tampa Bay sits 12th in shot share and eighth in high-danger chances over the last 10 contests. It's lagging a little behind Calgary at five-on-five.
The Lightning also take a lot of penalties. That makes winning the special teams battle hard, which is important when going up against a strong five-on-five team.
Perhaps more important than Calgary looking like the better five-on-five side or Tampa's inability to stay disciplined is Andrei Vasilevskiy's form.
The star netminder has allowed at least three goals in seven consecutive starts, posting a sub-.900 save percentage in all but one of them.
The Lightning are off right now, and I like the Flames to take advantage.
Bet: Flames (+105)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.