NHL Tuesday best bets: Golden Knights to stay hot vs. Maple Leafs
We have a meaty 11-game slate ahead of us Tuesday night. Let's waste no time and dive into the best ways to attack it.
Islanders (+135) @ Rangers (-175)
The Rangers are somewhat spinning their wheels of late, dropping two in a row and six of nine heading into this game.
Don't let their recent record fool you, though; they've largely played well. At five-on-five the Rangers have controlled 53.63% of the expected goal share, which is good for seventh in the league. The problem is that has only translated into 38% of the actual goals.
New York has scored on an unsustainably low percentage of its shots, finishing at just a 5.33% clip. That ranks 31st over the last nine games, ahead of only the Blues.
With finishing issues - and Jaroslav Halak yet to win a single start - it's no wonder the Rangers are struggling to get victories on a consistent basis.
So long as they continue to win in the chance department, I expect that to change sooner rather than later, especially when Igor Shesterkin is between the pipes.
Tuesday offers a nice chance to get back on track against the Islanders. Although they're playing pretty good offensive hockey, they're laboring defensively. Over the last nine games, the Islanders sit 24th in high-danger chances against per 60 at five-on-five.
They're giving up a lot of dangerous looks. Trading chances when Ilya Sorokin is between the pipes is understandable; their guy is generally going to make more big saves than the opponent.
It's a much riskier proposition with Semyon Varlamov in goal. His save percentage is fine through four games, but he doesn't grade out that well in goals saved above expectation, sitting at -1.3.
At the other end of the ice, Shesterkin boasts a potent +4.3 GSAE.
With an edge in goal, a better five-on-five profile, and extra rest against a team that played a contentious overtime game Monday night, the Rangers are worth backing.
Bet: Rangers in regulation (-110)
Golden Knights (+100) @ Maple Leafs (-125)
The Maple Leafs have responded nicely after taking heat for an underwhelming road trip through California.
They've won three straight games and really tightened up defensively, holding Eastern Conference contenders, the Bruins and Hurricanes, to just one goal in back-to-back nights.
While I believe the Maple Leafs to be one of the league's better teams, I don't think their winning streak is going to reach four.
The Golden Knights are playing truly outstanding hockey right now. They enter play on an 8-2-0 run and have controlled nearly 60% of the high-danger chances during that stretch. Only the Devils, winners in nine of the last 10, have fared better than the Golden Knights in that regard.
Vegas is generating high-danger chances at a healthy rate, sitting seventh in five-on-five efficiency during this hot streak. Perhaps even more noteworthy, the club sits second in high-danger chances against. The Golden Knights are getting it done at both ends of the ice.
It's very difficult to completely take Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and Co. out of games, but this stout Vegas team sure looks better equipped than most to slow them down.
The Golden Knights should also get their fair of chances, which is problematic for a Leafs team trotting out Erik Kallgren in goal. He played well over the weekend but has dropped three of four decisions this season and posted an .888 save percentage in the NHL last year.
He is playing over his head, which means the Maple Leafs need to play a near flawless game to protect him. That's a lot to ask every night - particularly against a team of this caliber.
Back the red hot Golden Knights to get it done.
Bet: Golden Knights (+100)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.