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NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game

Joshua Bessex / Getty Images Sport / Getty

We use this space each week to discuss the valuation of teams to help us figure out what teams are incorrectly priced on a minute-by-minute basis.

However, the basis for the change in those valuations - a team's on-ice metrics through just one-eighth of the season - can illuminate value in the futures markets as well.

The Sabres and Kraken are still listed at 100-1 to win the Stanley Cup. Sure, maybe neither team is ready to go the way, and they certainly don't have the brand-name reputation, but through an admittedly small sample size, they've played as well as those who do, and it would be nice to have a 100-1 ticket on any team that makes the Stanley Cup Playoffs - something doable for both.

The following shows the expected goal share at even strength - a metric that tells you how a team is playing relative to their competition - and high-danger goal share - a metric that shows how well a team converts its best chances combined with how good its goaltenders are at stopping them.

TEAM XG% (5-on-5) HDG % (5-on-5)
Kraken 53% 59%
Sabres 50% 57%
Maple Leafs 53% 54%
Avalanche 46% 53%

The Maple Leafs are still 10-1 to win the Stanley Cup, and the Avalanche, naturally, remain the favorites. However, keep an eye on where the Kraken and Sabres' odds go relative to the rest of the league, and you'll see how teams can move up or down in value even in long-term betting markets. This should provide a hint about how they're being viewed on a game-to-game basis as well.

The recipe

We started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's still the best measurement we have. Throughout the season, we'll adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which various outliers like special teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events - such as three-on-three overtime and the shootout - can skew.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price. But how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a betable range at some point between market open and puck drop.

DATE GAME TRUE ML PRICE TO BET
Nov. 7 CGY@NYI -103/+103 CGY +107/NYI +114
STL@BOS +137/-137 STL +162/BOS -132
EDM@WSH -107/+107 EDM +103/WSH +118
Nov. 8 VAN@OTT +109/-109 VAN +120/OTT +102
VGK@TOR +139/-139 VGK +164/TOR -133
CGY@NJD +140/-140 CGY +165/NJD -134
NYI@NYR +151/-151 NYI +179/NYR -145
ARI@BUF +178/-178 ARI +213/BUF -171
STL@PHI -107/+107 STL +103/PHI +118
MTL@DET +155/-155 MTL +184/DET -149
EDM@TB +145/-145 EDM +172/TB -139
DAL@WPG +106/-106 DAL +117/WPG +105
NSH@SEA -107/+107 NSH +104/SEA +118
MIN@LAK +116/-116 MIN +137/LAK -112
Nov. 9 CAR@FLA -105/+105 CAR +105/FLA +116
VAN@MTL -107/+107 VAN +104/MTL +118
PIT@WSH -104/+104 PIT +106/WSH +115
MIN@ANA -120/+120 MIN -115/ANA +141
Nov. 10 CGY@BOS +112/-112 CGY +132/BOS -108
PHI@CBJ +129/-129 PHI +152/CBJ -124
EDM@CAR +106/-106 EDM +117/CAR +104
VGK@BUF -125/+125 VGK -120/BUF +147
OTT@NJD +154/-154 OTT +183/NJD -148
NYR@DET -116/+116 NYR -112/DET +137
ARI@NYI +237/-237 ARI +289/NYI -226
SJS@STL +178/-178 SJS +212/STL -170
NSH@COL +137/-137 NSH +161/COL -131
CHI@LAK +236/-236 CHI +288/LAK -225
Nov. 11 PIT@TOR +135/-135 PIT +159/TOR -129
TB@WSH -108/+108 TB +102/WSH +120
SJS@DAL +219/-219 SJS +266/DAL -209
MIN@SEA -111/+111 MIN -107/SEA +131
Nov. 12 OTT@PHI -118/+118 OTT -114/PHI +139
EDM@FLA +105/-105 EDM +116/FLA +106
ARI@NJD +289/-289 ARI +361/NJD -275
VAN@TOR +145/-145 VAN +171/TOR -139
BOS@BUF -127/+127 BOS -122/BUF +149
PIT@MTL -129/+129 PIT -124/MTL +152
CBJ@NYI +167/-167 CBJ +199/NYI -160
NYR@NSH +110/-110 NYR +121/NSH +101
CAR@COL +108/-108 CAR +120/COL +102
WPG@CGY +163/-163 WPG +193/CGY -156
CHI@ANA +144/-144 CHI +170/ANA -138
STL@VGK +135/-135 STL +159/VGK -130
DET@LAK +156/-156 DET +185/LAK -150
Nov. 13 DAL@PHI -140/+140 DAL -135/PHI +166
VAN@BOS +140/-140 VAN +166/BOS -135
SJS@MIN +200/-200 SJS +241/MIN -192
ARI@NYR +277/-277 ARI +343/NYR -263
WSH@TB +150/-150 WSH +177/TB -144
WPG@SEA +138/-138 WPG +163/SEA -132

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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