"AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals" is still a strange concept for football fans of the last 30-plus years, but here we are. The nature of branding in the NFL means a run to the Super Bowl doesn't necessarily guarantee buy-in from betting markets. If a team with a better historical track record rode a young star quarterback-receiver combination with a quality supporting cast to the season's final game, they'd be all the rage going into the offseason. When it's the Bengals? We'll need to see more.
That's how the market is treating Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and company, who head into a season in which expectations are higher than ever in Cincinnati.
2022 season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 10.0 (+105/-125) |
| Division | +190 |
| Conference | +1000 |
| Super Bowl | +2200 |
A surprise Super Bowl trip last season gives the Bengals the biggest jump in prescribed win total, going from a 6.5-win projection before last season to the 10-win median number going into this year. In the hyper-competitive AFC, the playoff-centric markets aren't ready to give Cincinnati as much credit as you might expect for a team that returns with all the key pieces from a conference championship team.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | -6.5 |
| 2 | @DAL | +1.5 |
| 3 | @NYJ | -5 |
| 4 | MIA | -4 |
| 5 | @BAL | +1 |
| 6 | @NO | -1 |
| 7 | ATL | -10 |
| 8 | @CLE | N/A |
| 9 | CAR | -7 |
| 11 | @PIT | -2.5 |
| 12 | @TEN | PK |
| 13 | KC | PK |
| 14 | CLE | N/A |
| 15 | @TB | +3 |
| 16 | @NE | -1 |
| 17 | BUF | PK |
| 18 | BAL | -3 |
The Bengals have 10 games lined at a field goal or less, and that's before accounting for whatever version of the Browns they'll see come Week 8 and Week 14. That comes with the territory of being in a tough division in a loaded conference. Cincinnati has to deal with a first-place schedule that matches it up with the Chiefs, Titans, and Cowboys in a year when it plays nine of 17 games on the road.
SWOT analysis
Strengths
Burrow would've made a run at 5,000 passing yards if he needed to play a 17th game in 2021, considering the Bengals led the league in yards per pass attempt. Joe Mixon finished third in the NFL in rushing yards. To build upon that success through the air and via the ground, the Bengals revamped an offensive line that was awful with the exception of Jonah Williams at left tackle. Burrow, Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Mixon were already so good, yet Cincinnati added veterans Ted Karras, Alex Cappa, and La'el Collins. With better protection, the sky is the limit for the Bengals' offense.
Weaknesses
With that type of hope for the offense, a defense that finished in the middle of the league in yards per play allowed and takeaways is the weakness by default. If Jessie Bates signs his franchise tender, the defense will remain largely the same for another season. As a fan of continuity, this may end up being a positive thing.
Opportunities
Given how many toss-up games are on the schedule - at times, against bigger brands - there will be frequent opportunities to bet on Burrow and the Bengals' offense to win them games. These short point spreads suggest an underrating of Cincinnati on a game-to-game basis that doesn't jive with their relatively ample win total.
Threats
I don't want to lay points with a team when I can't trust its defense or offensive line. The Bengals are trying to address the latter, but the former means susceptibility to backdoor covers late. In games like the ones against the Steelers in Week 1 and the Jets, Falcons, and Panthers later in the season, asking the Bengals to pull away - and stay ahead to cover - might be too much to ask.
How to bet the Bengals
Burrow (+1200) is part of the selection of high-profile quarterbacks who are strong MVP candidates. With odds longer than Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Aaron Rodgers, I'd prefer Burrow at this price. He's 12-1 to lead the league in passing yards as well. With better protection, he could surpass Brady and Herbert in yards per game, and with a strong division, there's a better chance the Bengals will have to try come Week 17.
Chase isn't sneaking up on anyone this season, as he's the co-favorite at +500 for most receiving touchdowns and the third choice for most receiving yards at +1000. With so many options for those titles and the possibility that Cooper Kupp repeatedly gets fed by Matthew Stafford, there's little value on Chase at these odds.
The Bengals are 14-1 to lead the league in points. Given how competitive their schedule is, 60 minutes of offensive effort for 17 games means their point totals may have to be high to get back into a good spot within the division.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
