It makes sense that the Bills are favored to win Super Bowl LVII, in theory. They were just seconds from beating Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium and playing in Buffalo for the AFC championship. So, with a fresh season on the horizon, I understand why the Bills are Super Bowl favorites.
With just a few roster changes, maybe you agree with Buffalo's place as the NFL's top-rated team. Given that the Bills' starting point on the oddsboard seems to be close to the peak, though, are betting markets doing something we've rarely seen in human history - overrating Buffalo?
2022 Season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 11.5 (-140/+120) |
| Division | -225 |
| Conference | +300 |
| Super Bowl | +600 |
If the standard for being the Super Bowl favorite is being able to beat the Chiefs in Kansas City, then yes, the Bills are one of the few teams that qualify. However, that trickles down to a very cheap payout on an AFC championship, a big price to win the division, and a win total juiced to the over on 11.5 wins.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @LAR | -1 |
| 2 | TEN | -7 |
| 3 | @MIA | -3.5 |
| 4 | @BAL | -1 |
| 5 | PIT | -9.5 |
| 6 | @KC | -1.5 |
| 8 | GB | -4 |
| 9 | @NYJ | -7 |
| 10 | MIN | -7.5 |
| 11 | CLE | N/A |
| 12 | @DET | -8 |
| 13 | @NE | -3 |
| 14 | NYJ | -9.5 |
| 15 | MIA | -6 |
| 16 | @CHI | -7 |
| 17 | @CIN | PK |
| 18 | NE | -7 |
Some of these point spreads will change if the Bills don't confirm what the market currently thinks of them. It's not too early to grab seven points with the Patriots in Week 18, and it might be worth doing the same with the Titans in Week 2. Buffalo getting treated as favorites in Baltimore and Kansas City - where the Bills were underdogs twice last year - is eye-opening.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Appropriately, given his team's standing, Josh Allen (+700) is the favorite for MVP. However, Buffalo's offense might not even be its strength. The defense, which led the NFL by giving up just 4.8 yards per game last season, added veteran pass-rusher Von Miller and will get back All-Pro cornerback Tre'Davious White from a late-season knee injury.
Weaknesses
We can be guilty of grasping at straws when evaluating contenders, but we'll spend the early part of the season trying to determine just how much the absence of former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will matter to the Bills' offense. Daboll embraced the concept of an almost pass-only offense, but Buffalo spent high-end draft capital on running back James Cook. Are we sure more running by non-Allen players is a good thing?
If we're being picky about the defense, it didn't look like a top-rated unit in losses to the Chiefs, Buccaneers, or Colts, where they surrendered 41 points. Try to name a game where the Bills played well against a top offense. I'll wait.
Opportunities
Given Buffalo's high expectations, just like similarly rated teams we've already discussed in the Bucs and Packers, the first inclination should be to evaluate whether the Bills are worth their price. Comparing last year's schedule to this season's slate, there's enough here to wonder aloud if maybe they aren't the best team in the league.
Threats
The biggest threat to this line of thinking is that Buffalo might be the best team by default. Once any club has claimed that perch, upward of 14-plus wins isn't out of the question. Allen may have gotten all he needed from Daboll, and there might be continuity without him. Miller, along with White's return, could make the Bills' defense good enough to stop the top offenses they struggled with last year. All of this could mean that the market is actually underestimating Buffalo.
How to bet the Bills
Miller (+2800) isn't viable for Defensive Player of the Year at this stage of his career, and there are too many options for anyone to stand out on this team, anyway. Similarly, expectations are too high for Sean McDermott (+1800) to be a valuable bet for Coach of the Year.
Stefon Diggs is 14-1 for most receiving yards in the league, but there's no reason teammate Gabriel Davis (+4000) couldn't explode with a big year at better than twice the price. They're much closer in the most receiving touchdowns market at +1400 and +1600, respectively.
From a team perspective, a 10-win season wouldn't qualify as a disaster; you can take an alternative under on the Bills at 10.5 wins for +185. If they succumb to a tough schedule, +400 to miss the playoffs isn't as crazy as you might think.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
