After winning the overtime coin toss in the AFC Championship Game, the assumption was the Chiefs would march their way down the field like they did the week before. But the Bengals had other ideas, and just like that, another season ended in disappointment for a team priced quite short for both the AFC and a Super Bowl championship.
Kansas City arguably made the biggest surprise of the offseason by trading Tyreek Hill, one of the league's rarest skill sets. Had the Chiefs held on to the elusive receiver, we'd feel like we'd know what to expect for them in 2022. But while the move was financially prudent for Kansas City in the long term, it also provides an element of uncertainty in a suddenly loaded AFC West.
2022 Season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 10.5 (-115/-105) |
| Division | +175 |
| Conference | +600 |
| Super Bowl | +1000 |
Despite the first real sign of salary cap-caused upheaval in the Patrick Mahomes era, the market is still committed to the incumbent favorite in the AFC West. K.C. is also the second choice behind the Bills for a trip to the Super Bowl. Does the buzz around the other teams in their division artificially lengthen the odds on the powerhouse Chiefs? Or is the fact that they're not the odds-on favorite in the AFC West for the first time in a few years a sign that they're vulnerable?
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ARZ | -3 |
| 2 | LAC | -3 |
| 3 | @IND | -2.5 |
| 4 | @TB | +2.5 |
| 5 | LV | -6 |
| 6 | BUF | +1.5 |
| 7 | @SF | -1 |
| 9 | TEN | -6 |
| 10 | JAX | -10 |
| 11 | @LAC | +1.5 |
| 12 | LAR | -2.5 |
| 13 | @CIN | PK |
| 14 | @DEN | PK |
| 15 | @HOU | -10 |
| 16 | SEA | -10.5 |
| 17 | DEN | -4.5 |
| 18 | @LV | -2 |
The Chargers and Colts are the only two non-playoff teams on the Chiefs' schedule for the first half of the season. Survivor contest players will be patiently waiting to use Kansas City in Week 10 - if they get that far.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Beyond saving money, the idea around the trade of Tyreek Hill was to make the Chiefs more versatile. Opposing defenses are less likely to know where Mahomes' passes are going with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore taking Hill's place. Of course, the highest percentage of those throws will go to Travis Kelce. The offense that led the league with 6.1 yards per play last year might look different, but it'll still be good behind an offensive line that was successfully rebuilt prior to last season.
Weaknesses
The Chiefs' defense gave up 5.8 yards per play to opponents last season. It was as if Kansas City played the Packers every week.
A pair of rookies - George Karlaftis and Trent McDuffie - are the most notable additions to a defense that had to sacrifice Tyrann Mathieu as a salary cap casualty. Chris Jones is the difference-maker up front, but that just makes the Chiefs that much more vulnerable in the handful of games he misses each season.
Opportunities
If Kansas City's offense is going to play with more structure this season, does that take away Mahomes' best attribute - his improvisational skills? In a less explosive offense, are there ways to fade the Chiefs' offense and live to tell about it?
Threats
Mahomes earned his massive contract, but we're starting to see where that money is coming from within the roster. With those sacrifices, along with the ongoing arms race in the AFC West, the division is as competitive as ever.
The market got so high on Kansas City that the Chiefs went on a 4-16 stretch against the spread in the 365 days from Nov. 8, 2020, to Nov. 7, 2021, despite winning 14 of those 20 games. From a betting standpoint, the market's overreaction is the biggest threat to K.C. backers on a week-to-week basis.
How to bet the Chiefs
With the diversity in the wide receiving corps and Hill in Miami, could Kelce (+1400) lead the league in catches?
Mahomes' passing yards total is 4,650.5, lower than the 4,839 yards he threw for last season. However, the under is the bet here based on what it'll take to assimilate his new targets and the increase in underneath throws to Kelce.
The main markets aren't playable at current odds, but simply treading water for the first half of the schedule while getting the new pieces up to speed would be a win for the Chiefs. If the defense shows improvement during that tough stretch, there will be a midseason buy point on Kansas City's futures at better prices.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
