In our betting-centric refresher on Las Vegas, we discussed a pair of big adds to the organization. But with all due respect to Josh McDaniels and Davante Adams, they aren't the most critical new duo in the AFC West. The Broncos also have a new head coach in Nathaniel Hackett - like Adams, hired away from Green Bay, and a new quarterback in Russell Wilson. Like the Peyton Manning signing years earlier, Denver has made a franchise-changing move, and it's significantly changed the team's standing in the market.
2022 Season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 10 (-120/+100) |
| Division | +260 |
| Conference | +850 |
| Super Bowl | +1600 |
Ahead of the 2021 season, oddsmakers set the Broncos' win total at 7.5 after they acquired Teddy Bridgewater as their starting quarterback. A year later, with Wilson on board and little else changed, the club's median win expectation is up 2.5 games. The market is fully aware of the upgrade under center.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @SEA | -4.5 |
| 2 | HOU | -10.5 |
| 3 | SF | -2.5 |
| 4 | @LV | PK |
| 5 | IND | -3 |
| 6 | @LAC | +3 |
| 7 | NYJ | -7.5 |
| 8 | @JAX | -6.5 |
| 10 | @TEN | PK |
| 11 | LV | -3 |
| 12 | @CAR | -2.5 |
| 13 | @BAL | +1.5 |
| 14 | KC | PK |
| 15 | ARI | -4 |
| 16 | @LAR | +3.5 |
| 17 | @KC | +4.5 |
| 18 | LAC | PK |
Survivor contest players will likely put their faith in the new-look Broncos in Week 2, as they get the Texans out of their depth at Mile High heights for Wilson's home debut.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
If Russell Wilson is your quarterback, the offense should probably be a strength. He walks into a locker room with a mostly high-drafted wide receiver group in Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and KJ Hamler built long before they knew who would eventually be throwing to them.
Before landing Wilson, the narrative around Denver's quest for a top-level quarterback always sounded like it would be a favor to its world-class defense. The trouble with that theory is that the Broncos had Von Miller at the center of opponent offense corruption, but no one put up more sacks last year than Shelby Harris - and he departed for the Seahawks.
Weaknesses
There's still too much talent on the back end of the Broncos' defense for it to be a weakness, with Patrick Surtain and Justin Simmons leading the way at corner and safety, respectively. Bradley Chubb missed 10 games due to ankle surgery and didn't have a sack in the seven games he did play in. After a 12-sack rookie season across from Miller in 2018, the question around Chubb is whether he can stay healthy and reliable for 17 games, turning the defense into something more than a hypothetical.
If Wilson was tired of running for his life in Seattle, it's concerning that he's now behind a line that returns four of five starters who gave up 28 sacks last season - 27th-best in the league.
Opportunities
For what felt like five seconds this spring, you could've had Wilson at 25-1 for MVP. But that price is long gone as he sits around 14-1, and along with it went the best prices on the Broncos in the other main markets.
Threats
Continuity is the untold difference-maker in the NFL. Winning in a league that's as competitive as ever depends on small things that give a team an edge, including not having to spend time on the basics. With a new quarterback - even one of the best - and a new offense-first head coach, it will take time to organize that side of the ball with a suspect line and young receivers. Wilson doesn't have the same escapability that he once had, either.
How to bet the Broncos
There likely won't be any candidates gunning for statistical league-leader or winning any awards other than Wilson, and the value is gone on an MVP bet - just as it is for any team accomplishment. Wilson will get credit for an expectation-surpassing season, so Hackett isn't a good bet for Coach of the Year. Chubb is 30-1 for Defensive Player of the Year, but a longer shot in that market is more interesting. Simmons (80-1) had five interceptions last campaign - tied for most by a safety - and 12 passes defended - one off the lead by a safety. Plus, he threw in a sack and half for good measure. If the Broncos' defense is really good, he may emerge as the face of that unit.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
