For the second straight year, an NFC team that was deemed to be "just a quarterback away" made a big move, grabbing a Pro Bowl signal-caller. Just like that, the Rams - like the Buccaneers before them - won the Super Bowl. It was, in fact, that easy.
What do Matthew Stafford and the Rams have for a Hollywood encore? Oddsmakers and the market agree - probably something pretty good.
2022 season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 10.5 (-105/-115) |
| Division | +125 |
| Conference | +500 |
| Super Bowl | +1100 |
The Rams get the edge over the 49ers in the NFC West and up the oddsboard, as they did in the NFC Championship Game. Perhaps because of that in-division competition, Los Angeles has just enough hurdles to a repeat that it is the third choice in the NFC and has the fifth-shortest odds for what would be a Super Bowl repeat.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | -1 |
| 2 | ATL | -13 |
| 3 | @ARZ | -2 |
| 4 | @SF | -1 |
| 5 | DAL | -4.5 |
| 6 | CAR | -7.5 |
| 8 | SF | -4.5 |
| 9 | @TB | +1.5 |
| 10 | ARZ | -6 |
| 11 | @NO | -3 |
| 12 | @KC | +2.5 |
| 13 | SEA | -9.5 |
| 14 | LV | -4 |
| 15 | @GB | PK |
| 16 | DEN | -3.5 |
| 17 | @LAC | +1.5 |
| 18 | @SEA | -5.5 |
The Rams' championship defense gets cooking early with an opening night visit from the Super Bowl favorite Bills - and their former mercenary pass-rusher, Von Miller. The Rams' first-place schedule, and the NFC West's pairing with the AFC West, is the reason they will be underdogs (again) on the road against the Bucs, Chiefs, and maybe (again) Packers. Most interestingly, they are projected to be short 'dogs in Week 17 to their SoFi Stadium roommates, the Chargers.
SWOT analysis
Strengths
This should probably be concerning for the rest of the NFL:
Better grasp of offense has Matthew Stafford confident Rams "can go above and beyond" last yearhttps://t.co/e3XvNlvQ07 pic.twitter.com/oz6dsBHsQJ
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) July 9, 2022
Stafford's connection with Cooper Kupp was immediate, and it paid off in the form of not just a Super Bowl MVP but also the Offensive Player of the Year award for Kupp. The Rams have Allen Robinson now, replacing Odell Beckham, who replaced Robert Woods. Woods' blocking acumen within the offense aside, and accounting for current ability, Robinson might be the best receiver of the three. Just as the football world wondered what Stafford might do with a better team around him, those same astute observers likely wonder the same about Robinson with a top-tier quarterback.
And they still have Aaron Donald. Need we say more?
Weaknesses
Andrew Whitworth finally retired, which should leave a big hole to fill in the offensive line, but the Rams have found a way to make things work over the last few years whenever they needed to patch up the protections. The faith in the run game was so limited that Cam Akers may have been rushed back after an Achilles tear. He has a full offseason to get back to 100%, though.
The biggest presence missing is Miller. Even though he wasn't in Inglewood long, he was a major factor in the Rams' run through the NFC and their win over the Bengals in Super Bowl LVI. The Rams' latest defensive mercenary is Bobby Wagner - who is quite a different player than Miller as a middle linebacker.
Opportunities
If you like the Rams, you'll get plenty of opportunities to bet on them at short prices in individual games - starting in Week 1. Even though they won the Super Bowl at home, their home-field advantage is almost entirely negligible, and they have road playoff wins in Tampa Bay and Seattle in the last two seasons alone. Getting L.A. at pick'em or better in some of its high-profile games will provide more value than taking the Rams in the season-long markets listed above.
Threats
The Rams are regarded highly, have a top competitor in the division, and have a tough schedule with at least three challenging road games outside of the division where they may not be favored. That's a tough recipe for a buy recommendation. However, it makes sense that Stafford feels more confident about his grasp of the offense, and that's not something I'm dying to bet against.
How to bet the Rams
Kupp is 12-1 to repeat as OPOY, but that's an award that hasn't seen a repeat winner since Marshall Faulk - also a Ram - won three at the turn of the millennium. With Robinson in the fold, a sketchy run game, and a defense without Miller, perhaps Stafford reignites his old gunslinger style of play and makes a run at either MVP (+1500) or a league lead in passing yards (+1000). A win in the first game will go a long way to push his candidacy for the former, while the accumulation of highly competitive games against good teams with good offenses might force him to push for the latter.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
