We got what we wanted in Game 1: an offensive explosion that far exceeded expectations.
Of course, I'm talking about the Eastern Conference Final, where, despite a move in the market towards the under, the 5.5-goal total saw the over cash midway through the second period. In the goaltending duel on Broadway, one of the top-billed stars stole the show.
The total flew over in the second period in Colorado too, but the bar was set much higher. This has inspired the total to touch an almost unheard-of 7.5 goals for Game 2. More importantly for our purposes, with goalies under siege on both sides of the bracket, we'll investigate what happened before the puck crossed the goal line, over and over and over ... and over.
Game 1: Oilers @ Avalanche
Five-on-five play
| TEAM | xGF | HDC | HDG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers | 2.89 | 15 | 3 |
| Avalanche | 3.5 | 17 | 3 |
Before the series, we discussed the Oilers' two variables that would swing the series one way or another. After Game 1, there's no reason to stop believing Connor McDavid will remain historically awesome in helping the Oilers' offensive output. Meanwhile, Mike Smith's binary play broke bad and saw him go sub-zero for the third straight series opener.
With Smith struggling - he posted a minus-3.6 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) in just 26 minutes - it was no surprise the Avalanche exploded for six goals against him. However, McDavid's usual three points drew some of the attention away from his supporting cast - the main reason that Edmonton was able to keep up.
If McDavid is reliably excellent and Smith's goaltending can only get better, there's reason to like the Oilers' chances to at least push this series to the limit given the two teams' fairly equal numbers from Game 1.
If you've played the total games under 5.5 (+125), that we discussed before the series, you're still in pretty good shape with the Avs up 1-0. However, with this high-variance action, continuing to grab anything at plus-money is a good idea.
Additionally, the Oilers' loss moved McDavid's odds to win the Conn Smythe from +600 to considerably longer. Edmonton has come back from 0-1 in both series already, however, so consider any significant change in his odds for playoff MVP an overreaction.
Pick: Oilers series handicap +1.5 games (+160)
Game 1: Lightning @ Rangers
Five-on-five play
| TEAM | xGF | HDC | HDG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning | 3.24 | 16 | 1 |
| Rangers | 2.45 | 12 | 2 |
If you compare the metrics from Game 1 in New York to those from the first game of the Western Conference Final, you might wonder how the Oilers and Avalanche got away with playing an entire Stanley Cup Playoff game dressed up as the Rangers and Lightning.
The only drastically different ingredient when comparing Game 1s was the performance of one goaltender. Igor Shesterkin was his predictably awesome self with a plus-4.24 GSAx. At the other end, Andrei Vasilevskiy didn't quite reach Smith's depths, but at least a minus-2.91 GSAx feels like an outlier.
The Rangers should be given credit for picking corners on Tampa's star netminder, but how repeatable is that? The total goals market is unconvinced, as it sits at 5.5 again with the total already juiced to the under.
Losing one game on the road shouldn't affect the Lightning's overall win probability for this series that drastically, but they go from -175 (63.6% likely) to advance to +100 (50% likely) to win the series, and that's an overreaction.
Pick: Lightning to win series (+100 or better)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
