Best bets for Round 1: Series winners, potential upsets, and best values

There are few occasions in sports quite as exciting and chaotic as the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

We're treated to another batch of mouth-watering matchups this year, with every arena back at full capacity for the first time since 2019 following the bubble playoffs in 2020 and lingering restrictions in 2021. Giddy up.

Below are the odds for every series as well as our NHL betting writers' favorite plays.

Series odds

Favorite series price

Alex Moretto: Bruins (-105)

This is going to be a fascinating series between two of the league's best five-on-five teams, but I believe the wrong one is favored. The Bruins are playing their best hockey at the right time, while the Hurricanes are sputtering and facing serious question marks in net as Frederik Andersen races to get healthy. He should return early in the series, but the Bruins have had their way with him in past playoffs.

In many ways, these are two very similar teams, but the Bruins hold some key edges that aren't reflected in this price, starting with how much more consistent they are defensively. It won't be easy by any means, but Boston will ride its elite blue line and battle-tested top line to a fifth successive first-round series win.

Matt Russell: Penguins (-115)

Moretto stole my Bruins pick and it feels like cheating if I take the Panthers (-300), with whom my numbers have the largest edge, so the Penguins it is. It's a matchup between one team in Pittsburgh that sees the sands running through the hourglass awfully quickly and one in the Rangers, who rely too heavily on their goaltender for my liking. Since Brian Burke took over, the Penguins decided to go for it in the latter days of Sidney Crosby's and Evgeni Malkin's careers - and for the first time since their Stanley Cup wins years ago, the core is healthy.

Todd Cordell: Wild (-150)

The Blues are a very good offensive team, but I have great concerns with when they don't have the puck. At five-on-five they allowed 2.85 expected goals per 60 over the last 25 games of the regular season, which put them 27th in the NHL, behind teams like the Flyers, Ducks, and Jets. I think the Wild will expose those defensive issues while playing responsible two-way hockey.

Favorite series spread

Alex Moretto: Avalanche -2.5 (+105)

Tougher tests await the overwhelming West favorites in the coming rounds, but a first-round matchup with the Predators gives the Avalanche a chance to wet their feet - and likely pick up some extra rest ahead of date with the Wild or Blues. Colorado's depth is overwhelming, especially for a Nashville team that lacks depth on the back end.

The Predators can be a fun team and have an innate ability to make life difficult on their opponents, but they also rely heavily on the exploits of Juuse Saros, who will miss the duration of the series. The drop-off in net from Saros to Connor Ingram is among the biggest of any team from starter to backup, and as a result, it's hard to see the Preds winning more than a game here. Their energetic crowd could help them to a victory on home ice, but the chances of Colorado winning this series in five games or fewer are much higher than the odds reflect.

Matt Russell: Oilers -1.5 (-115)

Sure, I could have taken the Stars +1.5, but instead, I'll go head-to-head with Moretto's supposed upset. (To follow.) All it would take is merely average goaltending for the Oilers to wash away some of the stink of the last two playoff losses that can be attributed to padded masked men. Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen are still around, but they're capable of being just OK, and that will be enough against the Kings, whose high-stakes last six weeks may have worn them down.

Todd Cordell: Panthers -1.5 (-140)

I think the Capitals are in for a world of hurt in this series. Their offense isn't as prolific as it has been in the past, and their goaltending is a big concern. Only the Devils posted a worse team save percentage over the final 25 games of the season. Goaltending issues are a recipe for disaster against the Panthers, who scored more goals than every team in the NHL. I just don't see the Capitals keeping up, especially if Alex Ovechkin is not 100%.

Favorite upset

Alex Moretto: Kings +1.5 (-105)

I gave out the Bruins (-105) as my favorite series price, so take that as my upset if you want because I'm taking the coward's way out here.

Edmonton has drastically improved under Jay Woodcroft, but even over that span - since Feb. 10 - Los Angeles has been the better team at five-on-five. The Oilers' high-end talent and strong special teams make them scary to bet against, but the Kings can give them trouble with their structure, discipline, and defensive acumen. Watching Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault go to work against two of the world's best offensive players is going to be a treat. There's a wealth of playoff experience on these Kings, and while the Oilers might ultimately pull through, they're going to have to earn every inch.

Matt Russell: Wild-Blues Under 5.5 games (+145)

We're blessed with three coin-flip series but cursed with at least two that aren't going to provide much drama, so options seem more limited than usual in this category. Instead, I will pivot to a juicy price, which would be considered an upset by betting standards.

Admittedly, I don't know who's going to win the series, but if there's a surprise, it might be that one team can't get enough goaltending. Given the way the Blues and Wild can score, that might mean a quick exit for either team. Think Oilers-Jets last year, where the games were high-scoring and close, but the series score was not.

Todd Cordell: Bruins (-105)

The Bruins aren't a team I would want to face in the playoffs. They posted the best expected goals for percentage in the league over the last 25 games, coming in above 60%. They have lethal duos on each of their top lines and are stout defensively; very few teams can limit chances like Boston can. While the Hurricanes are a strong team, I believe more in Boston's star power and structured defense. The Andersen situation in goal makes Carolina a tough side to back as well. If he misses more than a game or isn't 100%, I think the Hurricanes are in trouble.