NHL weekend betting preview: Buying a pair of home 'dogs
Thursday's bets weren't looking great early, but the Flyers and Rangers both erased deficits for comeback wins, padding our bankroll in the process. I added the Stars as a play on Twitter, which was a loser. So we didn't quite sweep, moving to 70-54 (+17.16 units).
Here's what I'm looking to bet this weekend:
Blues (-135) @ Kings (+115)
Mar. 5, 9 p.m. ET
Initially, I had the Kings down as a bet for Saturday, with these teams scheduled for a back-to-back series to begin the weekend. But it turns out Ville Husso will start on Friday for the Blues, with Jordan Binnington going on Saturday. So we're betting the Kings tonight!
There's excellent value on Los Angeles here with Husso in net for the visitors. The 25-year-old is really struggling this season, allowing four-plus goals in three of his five starts. Over seven appearances he's posted a miserable 3.82 goals-against average and a .879 save percentage while ranking 58th out of 59 goalies in both GSAA/60 and GSAx/60 (minimum five outings).
The Blues simply aren't playing well enough to justify this price with Husso in net. They've managed just 47.01% of the expected goal share at five-on-five over their last seven games while generating only 2.08 xGF/60, ranking 24th and 26th, respectively, in those categories during that span. Conversely, the Kings have posted a respectable 51.44% mark over the same stretch.
There's also a strong chance Cal Petersen starts for the Kings after Jonathan Quick was in the crease for Wednesday's loss. He's been a top-five goaltender this year by just about every metric, and Petersen's presence would make this an even bigger bargain than it already is with Husso between the pipes for St. Louis.
Pick: Kings (+115)
Rangers (-120) @ Devils (+100)
Mar. 6, 1 p.m.
If you tailed Thursday's article then we cashed together on the Rangers, and while it was a 6-1 drubbing, we were a bit fortunate. The Devils were dominant in the first half of this game, leading 1-0 and outshooting the Rangers 17-6 when Chris Kreider's power-play goal evened the score.
The goal seemed to deflate the Devils, who didn't recover. However, New Jersey dominated the underlying metrics, owning 62.15% of the expected goal share at five-on-five, and posting a 64.32 CF%. Igor Shesterkin was excellent as usual, while it was simply an off night for MacKenzie Blackwood, who allowed four goals on just 15 shots before Aaron Dell gave up two on four in relief. The Rangers scored six goals on just 1.83 expected.
Generating offense has been an issue for the Rangers without Artemi Panarin, as they've managed just 1.93 xGF/60 over their last three games. For perspective, the Red Wings rank 30th in the NHL this season with a mark of 2.35 xGF/60. The Rangers will regress, while the Devils are in for a much better day here if they replicate their five-on-five success.
Alexandar Georgiev is also starting for the Rangers after Shesterkin was hurt toward the end of Thursday's game. Combine the downgrade in goal for the visitors with a much better outing for Blackwood after a sure outlier on Thursday, and we're getting good value with the hosts in a big revenge spot. Let's just hope and pray New Jersey can stay out of the box.
Pick: Devils (+100)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.